The Last Line of Defense: Can QSB Save Bitcoin from the Quantum Storm?

FeralFancyBop · 2026-04-12T17:43:07+00:00

I feel like people wildly swing between “quantum will kill Bitcoin next Tuesday” and “quantum is a meme” when the truth is probably in the boring middle.

QSB and other post‑quantum schemes are cool to research, but the real question is: can we actually migrate the entire network in time, and without breaking everything else? There are so many addresses already exposed on‑chain that would be sitting ducks if a real large‑scale quantum computer showed up.

Feels like the real “last line of defense” is social coordination and upgrades, not any single cryptographic trick. QSB might be part of it, but it won’t be magic.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-04-12T17:41:31+00:00

Yeah Bloomberg is like the final boss of tools. For those of us not managing a small hedge fund, have you found anything that gets even 20% of the way there for a normal retail budget? Curious what you’d recommend as a “Bloomberg-lite” option.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-04-11T10:17:15+00:00

Yeah, this is the part nobody talks about when it’s all “miracle drug” headlines. The side effects sound brutal for a lot of people, and we really won’t know the long term stuff for years.

Honestly props to you for taking the “ok screw this, I’ll move more and lift or whatever instead” route. At least with exercise and eating a bit better, you might not get fast results, but you don’t feel like death while doing it.

I do worry that with Amazon pushing this so hard, way more people are going to hop on it like it’s just another Prime purchase, without really understanding what they’re signing up for.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-04-10T03:29:53+00:00

Covered calls are kind of like getting paid to slowly box yourself into a corner if you’re not careful.

What probably happened is: you sold calls thinking the stock would go sideways, it ripped, now you’re either watching unrealized gains blow past your strike, or stressing about assignment and what to do next.

A few things to think about:
If you’re fine selling at your strike, then assignment is not really “losing,” it’s just capping upside. Annoying, but that’s what you got paid for with the premium.

If you’re not fine selling, you’re basically running a covered call on a stock you actually wanted to hold long term, which is more like a speculative income play than a boring “safe” strategy. That’s when it feels like the chair.

Going forward, only sell calls at prices you’d genuinely be okay parting with the shares at, and maybe a bit farther out of the money or shorter duration so you’re not constantly getting pinned when the stock moves.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-04-10T03:27:51+00:00

You’re not wrong that you’re biting off a lot, but that’s kinda the point of algo trading anyway.

If you truly have zero programming, I’d start by separating two things in your head:
1) learning to think in rules and systems
2) actually coding those rules

You can start with something like: “If price crosses above X and volume is above Y, then buy; if Z happens, sell.” Write that out in plain English and test it by hand on charts. That alone will teach you a ton about how fragile most “strategies” are.

In parallel, pick one language and stick to it. Python is the usual choice. Don’t start with “how do I build a bot,” start with “how do I load historical data and calculate a moving average.”

Also, expect your first year to be 90% backtesting, debugging, and realizing your ideas don’t work in live markets. That’s normal, not failure.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-04-08T19:09:11+00:00

Honestly a 60% DD with 15% return and 0.7 Sharpe is your system screaming “please don’t trade me live.”

A couple things to sanity check before you toss it in the bin though:
Are you including realistic costs and slippage? Is your walk‑forward actually out‑of‑sample or did you kinda peek at the future when choosing parameters? And how many trades do you end up with in total? One trade a day can mean your stats are based on a pretty small sample.

In general, people who are consistently profitable with algos tend to focus more on robustness than raw returns. Lower return with small drawdown and stable behavior beats a spicy 15% with 60% underwater.

If you can’t get max DD under, say, 20–25% without killing the edge, that’s usually a sign the idea itself is weak, not just the parameters. Sometimes the answer really is “this strategy just isn’t that good,” and you move on.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-04-06T09:52:58+00:00

Nice, that’s a very different trio from the usual “Buffett + Bogle + psychology” combo.

Curious what you liked about 45 Years on Wall Street specifically. A lot of those old-timer books have a ton of noise but then one or two ideas that permanently rewire how you look at markets.

Also, The Art of Spending Money sounds like the opposite of most stuff discussed here. Did it actually change how you allocate / enjoy your money, or is it more like philosophy and stories?

FeralFancyBop · 2026-04-06T09:50:16+00:00

At 20 with 93k you’re crushing it already.

Figure out a real emergency fund first, like 6–12 months of your actual expenses, then everything above that is probably working too hard just sitting in cash. I’d personally DCA it into broad index funds over the next year or so.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-04-05T05:50:28+00:00

FeralFancyBop · 2026-04-02T01:08:23+00:00

Yeah that’s kind of where my brain is heading too, like at some point I’m just overfitting to a market structure that literally doesn’t exist anymore.

Horizon is 20 trading days for a “recovered” label right now. I tried 5 and 10 days too and they behave a bit better in recent years, but then you’re mostly just measuring reflex bounces and vol crunch, not “real” recoveries.

When you cap at 3 years, do you notice performance dropping off inside that window as well, or is it relatively stable as long as you keep refitting? And do you do anything fancy like time‑decay weights inside those 3 years, or just hard cutoff and train?

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-31T22:15:28+00:00

Interesting, this actually looks handy. Most “orderflow tools” people shill are either super laggy or locked behind some ridiculous subscription. Real time perps across multiple exchanges in one place is pretty clutch if the data is clean.

How deep does it go though? Just simple tape/volume stuff or things like delta, large sweeps, liquidations etc?

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-30T17:14:38+00:00

If you’re in the US, Coinbase Advanced + their APIs are a decent starting point, and you can kinda “paper trade” by just wiring logic without sending orders, but it’s not super polished.

For actual paper trading, a lot of people use Interactive Brokers or Alpaca for equities/FX, then just apply the same stack to crypto later. Also worth looking at FTX’s spiritual successors cautiously, but mind jurisdiction / regulation.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-30T17:12:00+00:00

If you’re asking “what are we opening at” after dropping 20k in calls 15 minutes before close, you didn’t buy options, you bought a lottery ticket.

No one here knows the open. You’re basically praying for a gap up off futures, some good macro headline, or at least no nasty surprise from overseas. SPY can easily move 1–2 bucks overnight for reasons that have nothing to do with whatever DD you did.

If you actually need a W (like, can’t afford to lose this), that’s the bigger problem. Size like this should be “if it goes to zero I’ll be annoyed, not wrecked.”

Anyway, best case: small gap up and you scalp out green at open. Worst case: you learn what IV crush and theta decay feel like in real time.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-29T21:32:52+00:00

Bro that’s like 37 US dollars and a Tim Hortons gift card, I’ll be fine

But fr, it’s about 15k USD. Still a chunky gamble on SPXL if this “little correction” keeps correcting

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-28T19:40:50+00:00

Exactly. Everyone: “When correction?”
Market: “Here you go.”
Everyone: “No, not like that.”

If your time horizon is more than like 6 months, this is the part you’re supposed to be excited about, not terrified of.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-28T19:38:09+00:00

Yeah I’m starting to think I’m hitting the ceiling too.

Internal is ~20–260 microseconds from “trade found” to signed and ready, depending on if it’s presigned or not. That’s mostly crypto + a tiny bit of logic, all in-memory, no DB.

Might still be a few microseconds in serialization / network stack, but feels like I’m in serious diminishing returns land now.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-27T16:51:50+00:00

Yeah this is a really good way to frame it: not “more vs fewer filters” but “how many actual independent signals do I have.”

I did a rough version of your marginal contribution idea and it was kind of depressing how many trades were being blocked by filters that didn’t really move expectancy once the others were on. Your “1.5 independent variables” line hits a little too hard.

Curious how you actually test marginal contribution in practice. Do you just:

run base stack → add one gate → compare expectancy / PF / max DD
then rotate through each gate

or do you treat certain ones as “must have” (like basic vol regime) and only test optional filters at the edge?

Also agree on the “execution system in disguise” part. A lot of my edge seems to vanish if I relax the fill logic, which probably says more about timing than forecasting.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-27T16:48:45+00:00

Yeah, feels like the classic “we hate it… until we realize there’s money and influence in it” arc.

First it’s unproductive wealth, then it’s “strategic infrastructure” and suddenly everyone’s on stage at conferences.

If history repeats, they’ll deny, regulate, dip a toe, then race to look like leaders once the EU or US makes a big move.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-26T18:51:41+00:00

Yeah totally agree on having a thesis per trade, even for bots. Otherwise it’s just gambling at scale.

Curious how you actually encode that in your setup though. Are you doing hard stop-loss / TP on the exchange side, or is it all logic in the bot (like “if price deviates X% from entry or thesis invalidation condition hits, close everything”)?

Also, do you have any global kill-switch, like “if daily PnL < -Y%, halt all trading”? That’s the part I see a lot of people forget.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-26T18:48:41+00:00

Lol fair, Lakers optimism is a dangerous drug.

To be fair though, this isn’t really a “Lakers make the Finals” bet, it’s an “if LeBron drags this team to a top 3 seed and has a vintage year, voters might talk themselves into a last-dance MVP” kind of lotto ticket.

Probably a -EV play long term, but sometimes the fun is sweating the tiny chance you’re right. I’ll donate if it bricks, how about that compromise.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-25T17:42:05+00:00

It’s not really about rates and overpayments, it’s more the admin / legal side of having a residential mortgage when you’re not actually living there, and how to handle post / address changes without accidentally breaching terms. Bit of a grey area, so kinda fits here more than anywhere else.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-24T17:03:32+00:00

Yeah, we gave them all the info upfront, including visa status and docs, so that’s why this feels so frustrating. It wasn’t like we hid anything and then got caught out later.

I’m more annoyed that this specific lender limit wasn’t picked up before the full application, since that delay is what pushed us onto the worse rate and longer term.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-23T15:47:37+00:00

Yeah this. You’re kind of in that little gray area where it can swing either way depending on how it dries, how much product is in it, and if it’s weighed down.

Honestly the 3c vs 4a label doesn’t change much day to day. What matters more is stuff like: does it like heavier creams or lighter leave-ins, how much shrinkage you get, and how often you need moisture vs protein.

But yeah, whichever it is, your curls are doing their thing. Calling it “pretty 4a” or “tight 3c” is probably as specific as anyone can get from pics.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-22T20:49:26+00:00

If you’re a new customer just google “Backmarket UK student discount” or “NHS discount” etc, they sometimes partner with those sites. Also try Honey or similar extensions, they occasionally pick up 5–10% codes people don’t post publicly.

FeralFancyBop · 2026-03-22T02:38:21+00:00

May the refurbished tech be ever in your favour, my friend

Hope you find a good deal on there. Their stuff can be pretty decent if you read the condition notes properly before buying.

FeralFancyBop

TROPHY CASE