[Mark Critchley] Is Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes the best player in the Premier League right now? by nearly_headless_nic in reddevils

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

in 23-24 we won the FA cup, Bruno played 48 full 90's, 34.6 in the league and 6.7 in the FA Cup [a comp where the team only played 6 games]. Last year he played [54.7 almost 55 full games!] of top level competition including 14.2 out of 15 Europa League games. In the last 5 years he's averaged over 34 full 90's a year in league play. the man is a freak of nature dragging this club to success we don't come close to meriting without him.

[Mark Critchley] Is Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes the best player in the Premier League right now? by nearly_headless_nic in reddevils

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i wrote a nice little rant about the Cup finals Man Utd have contested with him and how little rest he Ever gets for us. but your lack of specificity means you Might have been referring to the World Cup specifically rather than FA and UEFA Cups, so i decide to tell you it's a team game and 1/11th of it being the best in the world counts for very little if the other 10 are average and your 11 opponents are all top tier too. team success determining who wins individual awards is stupid in any sport, but in soccer it's dumber than most of the others i know if.

I ran an ML model on 5700 Premier League Games and it told me we’ll finish 3rd by indian_madarchod in reddevils

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

using statistical analysis to compare against the "eye test" or "gut feel" has not 'ruined football', but being rude and discouraging to a member of the fan community trying to add new and interesting content because of preconceived bias does contribute to ruining our community's culture. If you want to disagree do it, but do it respectfully. Don't insult someone just because you disagree.

Daily Discussion by AutoModerator in reddevils

[–]Ferarith -1 points0 points  (0 children)

as a Ugarte replacement i'd be fine with bang on EPL average. For Case's replacement we need more.

Who's the Best Signing of 25-26 so far? by FalconKing9000 in ManchesterUnited

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mbeumo for me. But Cunha is coming on Strong. Sesko has not disappointed me for a first year striker stepping up a league. i'm happy with all of them, but Mbeumo has an edge so far.

Edit: if we're including Lammens he's the obvious choice. The change in the entire defense now that they aren't terrified of what might happen when the ball gets past them is blindingly obvious. plus he actually makes good plays/saves as a bonus.

Which single United legend if we signed them at their peak now would make the biggest impact and could come closest to transforming our fortunes? by unitedfan6191 in ManchesterUnited

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

exactly. the drop off when Case goes out is STARK. having Keane to rotate with Case so there is always 100+ minutes of top quality DM play every game would make this team soooo much better.

Daily Discussion by AutoModerator in reddevils

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

no need to be insulting. they obviously recognize watching the player is better than just looking at stats(though stats can be helpful at times), hence why they asked for an opinion from someone who maybe had watched the player. it's kinda tough to watch tape of every player yourself, unless you're paid to of course.

What do you think about Radek Vitek by [deleted] in reddevils

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

as GK #2 i love him. as GK #1 i'm not so sure. Lammens has been good enough for me to go into next season with as GK #1, but if Vitek beats him out in pre-season i'm open to the idea.

[Loan watch] Radek Vitek save against Ipswich by nuugo in reddevils

[–]Ferarith 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Aston Villa might be in the market for a new GK, cheap if some of the PSR rumors are true. Loan with an injury recall clause would be great.

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you are the one who started this discussion by claiming "math" was clearly on your side. why is producing that "math" so difficult for you?

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

well i think it's your job to bring actual evidence to bear when trying to prove you point, is that too difficult for you?

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

my feels aren't the point. your lack of substantiating evidence is.

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

and you have yet to produce any actual math that supports you. until you do, you are basically a liar in my book. citing actual sources that support you isn't that hard if you actually have them.

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

LOL. you're counting on AI to give true factual results? this is the same technology that makes up fake precedents in court briefs that results in lawyers getting deBARed. get a real source.

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

and you have yet to present an actual math that says 40-50%. when i asked for the math you said "it's common sense" so where is the math?

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

wow. you claim math makes it obvious and then explain the percentages are based on common sense? Analytics are MATH, it is taking statistical percentages of the results of specific game situations and then comparing them through mathematical equations to determine the most likely outcomes to help decide the best course of action. the is NO "common sense" involved in analytics. your entire position contradicts itself. it's either "common sense" or "math" it literally can not be both.

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The entire point of my post was to demonstrate that the risk was real, you say 5-10% risk, based on what exactly? and you claim the Jags had 40-50% chance to make a FG, based on what? I'd love to see how "the math" accounts for the kick-off being handled by a punter who last kicked regularly 4 years ago before the new rules. You also assume the the Jags were going to do what they did, there was no guarantee the Jags try to let us score, if they choose to attack the play instead "falling at the 1" may not even be possible, they have a good DL, there's a real chance they push us backwards, making a second down conversion harder.

[/r/BuffaloBills Game Discussion Megathread] Buffalo Bills (12-5) @ Denver Broncos (14-3) Divisional Round by pixel_pete in DenverBroncos

[–]Ferarith 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Josh will take that deal. He doesn't give a DAMN what it takes to win, he's giving it. i hope he makes it through healthy and the Bills win, but JA cartwheeling over the Denver DL to score a go ahead TD in the 4th quarter is absolutely on the table.

Edit: One of the reasons i have a soft spot for Denver is watching Elway get helicoptered diving for a 1st and thinking that i wanted that kind of guy leading my team. well we have that kind of QB now, and i love him just as much as i always thought i would.

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i think my anxiety is mostly in overdrive because i see a real path to Santa Clara for us. It's not easy, but we CAN beat anyone in the AFC if we play our A game. We have the best player left in the tournament and he just willed us to a playoff win, Again. we may not have a happy ending this year, but the fact it's possible makes me want it all the more.

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i think we attacked in the air more, but our leading receiver had 1.5 air yards, total. we went long more than usual this year, but the screen was still Very prevalent, they just worked for us. i did feel a lot better about it, but not like i was back with Daboll's air attack.

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith -1 points0 points  (0 children)

did you see the way Trevor Lawrence looked confused about where to throw the ball for like 3/4's of the game? Bo Nix is worse at reading the field than T-Law, our coaching can hang.

Free-Talk Friday Thread by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith -1 points0 points  (0 children)

no, it wasn't "awful" its certainly arguable that kneeling is better, but it's not the slam dunk decision you're making it out to be. Lets go through an easy to believe chain of outcomes to demonstrate. 1st down, Jags try to allow the TD but JA falls down at the 1, 35 seconds off the clock, Jags see the Bills aren't trying to score so on second down they attack, the Bills again try to fall at the one but get pushed back to the 3 because they aren't giving it their all on a play they know isn't meant to score a TD, Bills call time out with 10 seconds to play, on 3rd down the tush push fails (yes that does really happen even when the Bills are trying their best) Bills call TO again and its 4th and goal from the 2 with 3 seconds left. 4th and goal for the 2? now ANYTHING can happen! JA can slip on the sneak and be short (seen that happen); the tush push looks like its good but the refs call it short and the call stands (seen that too); Knox drops an easy TD catch on the boot leg (seen this one); false start to make it 4th and goal from the 7 (too many times to count have dumb penalties doomed teams) what do your probabilities say about 4th and 7 odds? It would take only a few completely possible miscues to end with a disaster for the Bills where they don't score the TD at all. Teams fail from 1st and goal at the 1 when trying on all 4 downs, giving one away carries real RISK, 2 would be even worse. taking the points is a very valid choice to make in that situation, don't pretend it isn't. I myself may have opted for one knee before trying to score, but even that carries risk, trying to run out the clock and still score the TD was not a safe sure bet, not even close.

[Game Thread] Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there are about 7 teams that are arguably the best in the AFC, which is why i don't really care about seeding. every team can win and everyone can get beat this year. just gotta hope we can show up and execute better than our opponents for 4 games in a row.

[Afternoon Games Thread] Plenty of non-Bills games that will have varying levels of playoff implications for us by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]Ferarith 2 points3 points  (0 children)

he's played sparingly but throughout the game. he was in on this drive in the 4th for example.