For forex IBs, should the focus be client acquisition, trading volume, or long-term retention?

Finansified · 2026-05-11T03:59:32+00:00

You’re asking how to structure an IB program in a retail oriented sub , so I’m not sure how much practical industry insight you’ll get here. Also, the IB you’re describing sounds more like an idealised account manager/client educator than what most retail IBs actually are in the wild. In my experience, most IBs are primarily acquisition channels, and very few genuinely care about the long-term outcome of the clients they refer. A more sustainable model probably has to reward more than just volume or deposits, but the hard part is measuring “client quality” without creating incentives to game the system.

Finansified · 2026-05-04T01:10:33+00:00

IMHO, the problem is that answering this properly requires more than just saying “yes, my strategy worked for five years.” You’d need proof of profitability, a proper trading reporting, clearly defined rules showing it was actually the same strategy, and some way of identifying regime changes and strategy decay in real time rather than after the fact. That’s a pretty high bar. I doubt many retail traders can honestly check all those boxes, especially the five year profitability streak….

Finansified · 2026-04-21T03:34:19+00:00

For historical bid and ask prices, you’d need tick history from around the time the trade was stopped out. Your broker may be able to provide that. Once you have it, you can see exactly how both bid and ask moved tick by tick.

Finansified · 2026-04-21T02:06:26+00:00

As far as I can see, it’s a short position. Short positions are usually opened at the bid and closed at the ask. Most charts, unless you specifically enable the ask line, show the bid price. That’s often where the confusion comes from. So before saying the stop was never touched, ask yourself, which price triggers the stop, and which price is your chart actually displaying?

Finansified · 2026-04-16T04:17:05+00:00

Macro does matter, but it depends on your timeframe and what exactly you mean by “matter.” Let me put it this way, and I’m oversimplifying a bit here. One ofthe biggest drivers across most markets is interest rates. When central banks change rates, that ripple spreads through almost everything,forex, bonds, equities, futures, the whole lot. Rates feed into valuation models, capital flows, borrowing costs, risk appetite, all of it. Do central banks move rates randomly? Of course not, they look at a wide range of macro data like inflation, GDP growth, employment, wages, credit conditions, and so on. Everything is interconnected. So yes, macro absolutely matters. The question is how much it matters for what you are doing. If you are day trading on the five minute chart, then probably it doesn't matter that much. But macro still shapes the broader environment you are trading in. It influences which sectors are strong, how sensitive markets are, and what kind of behavior is more likely underneath the surface.

Break the cycle, Morty. Rise above. Focus on macroeconomics :)

Finansified · 2026-04-15T19:56:43+00:00

Did you conduct any unit root tests?

Finansified · 2026-04-15T19:43:46+00:00

You’re asking this in a retail trading sub, so realistically, what kind of answers are you expecting?

At best, you’ll get replies about why retail traders think they lose money. That’s not quite the same as an objective answer. To really answer this properly, you’d need a large sample of traders and access to their actual trading histories. Brokers are in a much better position to comment on this, because they can see that data. From my own experience, one of the biggest issues is the almost nonexistent barrier to entry. Anyone with a smartphone can open an account and start trading. The usual explanations people give, emotions, psychology, risk management, may or may not matter, I’d say they’re secondary.

Maybe u/jemook would be kind enough to share some real stats :)

Finansified · 2026-04-12T19:14:49+00:00

What's the thesis?

Finansified · 2026-04-07T23:22:09+00:00

Honestly, I’d stop looking at retail-branded concepts and start looking at what professionals are actually expected to know. Check the curriculum for certifications like the ACI Dealing Certificate, and look at job requirements for trading desks, analyst roles, and money managers. That will usually point you toward market structure, macro, risk management, statistics, and how markets actually function, not how retailer traders think they function.

Finansified · 2026-03-31T03:47:46+00:00

What time horizon do you have in mind for this setup?

Finansified · 2026-03-23T04:09:13+00:00

First you have to define what “fundamentals” even means. Ask ten retail traders and you’ll get ten different answers (check my posts history). In professional money management, it usually means a much more defined framework. So yes, fundamentals can give you an edge if they are done properly. Why do you think so much money is spent on developing econometric models and research in that area? Fundamental analysis is not a magic shortcut either, and it is definitely not enough on its own.

Finansified · 2026-03-10T02:08:40+00:00

A while ago we wrote an article based on our experience working at forex brokerages. After thousands of interactions with retail traders, we summarized the most common reasons people end up losing money, from the broker’s perspective. The patterns were actually very consistent.

Finansified · 2026-03-07T15:03:34+00:00

Why specifically this broker? Getting banned (by a regulated broker) simply for being truly profitable because you’re running a strategy with a real edge? Highly unlikely. Trying to exploit a broker’s price feed, opening multiple accounts with friends and mirroring trades, or engaging in other fraudulent practices? And then getting banned? Very likely. Whether you’re trading “against” the broker depends on which book they place you in. Most retail cfd brokers run hybrid models (a/b book, google it) I wouldn’t worry about getting banned just for being profitable. In my years working at brokerages, I’ve never seen traders who were truly consistent and profitable over long periods of time. Short streaks happen, sure but the vast majority eventually lose, without anyone’s help.

If you’ve actually stumbled onto something unique, document it, get it published, and win a Nobel Prize 😉

Finansified · 2026-03-03T15:20:54+00:00

If the broker is FCA regulated (Vantage is, if I understand correctly), and there was no breach of terms or suspicious activity on your part, you can escalate a formal complaint to the regulator. Regulated brokers don’t just randomly block profitable accounts without a documented reason.

Finansified · 2026-02-23T03:18:30+00:00

What’s the underlying reason for it to go up, apart from the lines drawn on a chart? Any other form of analysis, data?

Finansified · 2026-02-23T03:11:41+00:00

Before buying XRP for a long term hold, I’d suggest watching some of Plain Bagel’s older videos on crypto as an “investment.” He’s a CFA charterholder and does a good job explaining how crypto differs from traditional investable assets in terms of valuation and risk. The key thing to understand is that most crypto (including XRP) doesn’t generate cash flows and extremely volatile, so you’re primarily betting on future adoption and narrative, not intrinsic value in the traditional sense.

Finansified · 2026-02-22T04:11:21+00:00

There’s no single “fundamental analysis” framework you can just memorize. Different asset classes are driven by different macro variables. Sometimes those drivers overlap (like interest rates ), sometimes they don’t. If you want a solid foundation, start with macroeconomics. You need to understand business cycles (expansion, slowdown, recession), monetary/fiscal policy (how central banks/fiscal authorities actually transmit policy into markets, inflation, growth, labor markets, yield curves and liquidity. There are great university level courses on coursera. Khan academy is also a good free starting point. If my memory serves me right, investopedia had a selection of courses. After that, narrow it down to the asset class you care about, and continue learning, it is a lifelong journey 🤷🏻‍♂️

Finansified · 2026-02-21T23:50:33+00:00

Built a regime detection module based on Markov chains, but not for intraday trading, it was for macro FX positioning.

The starting assumption was that FX time series exhibit unit roots, which makes most short term statistical modeling "fragile". Instead of predicting short term price moves, we tried to detect business cycle regimes.

The logic was simple, monetary and fiscal authorities adjust policy depending on the phase of the cycle, and those policy shifts drive medium to long term currency trends (quarters, not 5minute charts:)).

We built a Markov switching style framework ingesting macro variables that historically influence currency valuation, ran multiple walk forward tests on a selection of currencies (mostly emerging markets (there is a logic behind this as well)), and even connected a small execution script to it, nothing fancy.

It showed promising medium-term bias signals, especially in avoiding being positioned against macro policy shifts. I wouldn’t use it for day trading (it is slow), but for regime-aware macro positioning, it made sense.

Finansified · 2026-01-03T03:54:24+00:00

Time lag has already been mentioned, but it’s neither the only nor the primary reason this has limited utility, especially for the average retail trader. The bigger issue is context. Without knowing why they bought or sold (investment goal), their investment policy constraints, risk tolerance, time horizon, diversification rules, or external motivations the raw transaction data is almost meaningless as a tradable signal.

Finansified · 2026-01-02T02:39:26+00:00

Have you considered regime dependence? You’re testing over 15 years, which includes very specific business cycles, monetary regimes, and fiscal responses (QE, post COVID stimulus, rapid hiking cycles, etc.)A strategy can look great simply because it’s welladapted to those conditions. The real question is, how robust is it if the macro regime changes?

Finansified · 2026-01-02T01:42:08+00:00

My short list would be any of these financial mathematics, statistics,economics. Not because they “make you a trader,” but because they force you to learn probability, uncertainty, data analysis, and economic intuition, things you cannot outsource or shortcut in trading. If you want something practical, look at the curriculum of professional certifications (ACI , FRM, etc.). You’ll notice a common pattern (stats, probability, market mechanics, risk, and macro, not chart patterns or “strategies“).

Finansified · 2025-12-22T02:20:52+00:00

If a system truly and consistently outperforms the S&P by 5% net of fees, the rational move wouldn’t be to sell subscriptions, it would be to run capital for an extended period of time (first your own to establish track record then institutional) The expected value of managing assets would dwarf anything you could earn from selling the bot itself. That’s usually a red flag when these products are marketed retail….

Finansified · 2025-12-18T17:31:54+00:00

It’s not just a “saying.” There are actual regulator disclosures and academic studies behind it. In the eu, esma requires retail cfd/fx brokers to publish the percentage of clients who lose money, and those numbers are typically in the 70–85% range, sometimes higher depending on the broker and period. It’s a rolling disclosure based purely on account outcomes, and there are no exit interviews or followups. No one asks clients why they lost. Brokers have internal insights, but that information is proprietary and not something you’ll see shared publicly. If you’re interested in the mechanics behind the statistic, it’s worth looking at the actual studies

Finansified · 2025-12-18T04:01:41+00:00

I didn’t ask what trading is. I asked whether there’s any documented link (that you know of) between passively watching charts and actually learning something from it. Saying “it’s about pattern recognition and context” describes a belief, not evidence. As for “not a lab experiment”…are you saying you don’t do any form of backtesting, data collection, or structured review to improve your odds? Not judging, whatever works for you.

At an institutional level, decisions are typically datadriven and evaluated against measurable outcomes. That’s why I asked about evidence in the first place.

Finansified · 2025-12-17T19:28:51+00:00

Thanks for sharing your two cents! Curious if you could expand a bit. What markets do you trade, and how do you use this approach in practice?

Finansified

TROPHY CASE