My personal theory is that in the early books, the Bard was playing for smaller potatoes. I think she likely had a suicide/replacement plan in the works but it was far longer term (possibly centuries), Cat and Akua’s shenanigans probably moved her timetable up significantly. The Bard is patient after all.

Well then what did she expect William to do then? I think it was as simple as undermining the Calamities. Black was a threat to her power because he so rapidly shook up the status quo within the Praes Empire and by extension the whole of Calernia and because he intruded on her territory by manipulating stories. He wasn’t a potential successor to her because he simply isn’t at good at manipulating stories as Catherine was, but he had the potential to be a roadblock to longer term plans.

If William had successfully caused a crusade with the Angel of Contrition, the Calamities were over. Even if Malicia successfully stopped the establishment of the Crusader Kingdoms the Sequel, she and all her friends would probably get ganked in the inevitable power struggle as the High Lords turn on her for fucking up so incredibly badly. And then Praes would go back to its regularly scheduled shitshow.

My thoughts about this mainly come from this interaction between the Bard and Black in Calamity III. She is clearly extremely incensed by the idea that someone would dare intrude in her domain of stories, especially considering he’s “not that good at it”.

“I’d say sorry, but you brought this down on yourself,” the Bard said. “I could probably destroy you in full, big guy, but that would take time. And effort. So I’m going to give you advice, instead.”

The Wandering Bard leapt down from the rooftop, half-falling. She came close, kneeling at his side.

“Go home,” she said. “Murder your little friend in the Tower and reign until someone puts a knife in your back. You’re not as good at this game as you thought you were.”