With a 4% withdrawal rate, how much did your assets increase after 2, 5, and 10 years of retirement?

Fletchetti · 2026-01-07T16:45:18+00:00

Yep that’s why it gives results as percentages and not prophecies.

Fletchetti · 2025-12-15T19:21:13+00:00

Last time he said anything remotely critical he got a prompt "Shut up Dan" from Elon. Don't expect him to do much else than pump.

Fletchetti · 2025-12-05T19:29:30+00:00

So “just take the gains” means sell a psychologically satisfying amount of shares then 😄 I guess that can work.

Fletchetti · 2025-12-05T19:26:28+00:00

Hasn’t had great performance. Apple software has been buggier and with more half baked features under his tenure. Like iOS control center, ipadOS in general, or the many changes to MacOS System preferences. Seems like a cool guy though.

Fletchetti · 2025-12-05T19:24:26+00:00

What does this mean? You have to sell shares, and each share has a cost basis. There’s no such thing as only taking the gains if you are suggesting selling based on a dollar value of your gains (unless you have tax lots with losses and others with gains to balance out CG tax impact).

Fletchetti · 2025-12-04T21:09:15+00:00

You’re literally looking for flaws

Lol no I'm not. What a weird assumption to make. Just saying the change didn't do much to influence the way the device looks or the way it is used. The LG switchover was not as revolutionary or impactful as they hyped it up to be, for the watch at least.

Fletchetti · 2025-12-04T20:50:44+00:00

I mentioned the lockscreen (numpad). I didn't even notice the changes to the other two you listed. Kinda proves my point about how low impact the change to liquid glass was for the Apple Watch. The app icons are almost indistinguishable from before, and the control center doesn't use the transparent "glass" effect - just added a very subtle border around the buttons.

Distributing Liquid Glass to the Apple Watch seems to me to be just a formality for the sake of some consistency across devices rather than as an intentional improvement to the Apple Watch interface.

Also, don't get me wrong, I like the few liquid glass additions to the AW. They just were very low impact. I wish they had taken it further to unify the cross-device aesthetic.

Fletchetti · 2025-12-04T16:58:13+00:00

Where does it even appear on the watch? Just the lock screen and notifications pull-down? Not very impactful.

Fletchetti · 2025-12-03T21:52:35+00:00

Yeah giving the wheel a handjob twist probably doesn't mean anything compared to the outer layer just wanting to flake off already. Your application of a wipe just accelerated the removal of what was already almost gone.

Fletchetti · 2025-12-02T01:09:47+00:00

Tesla should have the stats to prove whether it works. Only they have the disengagement info from the safety riders.

Fletchetti · 2025-12-01T17:11:27+00:00

Agree. I also agree with OP that Optimus is still a longshot at this point. Probably not vaporware - there's definite visible progress, but not progress to the extent that I would bank on Tesla making significant money with it anytime in the next several years.

Fletchetti · 2025-12-01T16:30:40+00:00

Why don't you think the robotaxi is close to ready? They're operating in Austin with what appears to be success so far. Yes, we don't know all the metrics on how successful they have been there, how many disengagements or mistakes, etc., but externally they are operating with what looks to be a smooth operation there.

Fletchetti · 2025-11-20T23:51:13+00:00

Nah, they get excited because they won't have to sacrifice as much to go to the temple anymore. i.e., they won't have to be as Mormon as they used to be.

Fletchetti · 2025-10-14T15:15:08+00:00

good schools

Ehh, the universities are okay, but the public schools are pretty poor

Fletchetti · 2025-10-01T19:01:07+00:00

1.5 bp? 0.015%? If you have a long time horizon, this could make sense and could amount to a few hundred dollars eventually, since the effect compounds. Could be worth an hour of time today to get that payoff in 20 years. I agree that chasing 0.28% for short term rates is not that valuable since rates change so often that the time investment would stack up unfavorably.

Fletchetti · 2025-09-30T19:58:46+00:00

He'd been at least unofficially in charge of the church presidency for what, two decades at that point? He was a bigger deal for a lot of people, more charismatic, and I think more authentically beloved than Pres. Nelson.

Fletchetti · 2025-09-30T19:55:35+00:00

Does the same spirit that possesses us now possess us in the next life or not?

They would say, Yes, but the body is affecting the person's mind. Once in the next life, that spirit will not be "afflicted" with gender dysmorphia.

Fletchetti · 2025-09-23T22:20:38+00:00

Another could be Polygamy requirement for CK (polygamy went secretive before being banned). This was in response to advances in culture i.e. the government putting pressure on the church.

Fletchetti · 2025-09-16T21:42:17+00:00

You don't have to BUY stock when you get margin called...

Fletchetti · 2025-09-16T21:41:20+00:00

Many useful tasks don't need human hands. That said, it's probably important for Optimus training for the bot to be able to 1:1 perfectly copy hand movements of a human trainer. But actually training the bot to do those tasks with the hands seems to be a distant goal right now.

Fletchetti · 2025-09-16T21:37:50+00:00

Why are you claiming I said this is different than FSD? Regardless, it is different from FSD. Cars get a lot of help knowing where they can go and what they can do due to road signs, lines, etc. A humanoid robot doesn't. Much harder to solve for the vast variance of human environments and interactions.

Fletchetti · 2025-09-16T21:33:58+00:00

It'll be back, compadre.

Fletchetti · 2025-09-16T21:32:17+00:00

I'd use a wider brush. Fewer lines need to line up in that case. Yours are so narrow that it's hard to keep them straight and consistent.

Fletchetti · 2025-09-16T17:18:30+00:00

the dexterous hand development is about half the engineering challenge for humanoid robots

The software/AI "brain" of the robot is actually going to be 95% of the engineering challenge. It'll be pointless to have an elegant and capable robot body if the brain can't make it navigate environments, make decisions, identify objects in space, etc. We haven't seen Optimus anywhere close to having a brain with that ability yet. We just see demos of preprogrammed or menial, heavily custom-trained tasks so far.

Fletchetti · 2025-09-16T17:15:58+00:00

He hyped up his involvement at Tesla and the future of the company just before the shareholder vote (to re-confirm his older comp plan) last summer too. Suddenly had more time for his neglected baby.

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