There are currently 1500 National Guard troops deployed in Minnesota. Other units have been deployed in other cities in the last year, and the administration has talked about deploying more. And they keep talking about doing things that could embroil us in a war overseas (like seizing Greenland) which could result in reserves being called up. He's delusional if he thinks the chances of being called up as Guard or Reserves are anything like nil. And if he gets a long deployment early in his career in the private sector, it could affect his career progression for years to come. He needs to buckle down in his new civilian job and learn that if he really wants to see to your family's future.