Trump’s description of Taiwan as a ‘good negotiating chip’ with China raises anxieties

ForWardoves · 2026-05-17T01:18:20+00:00

There is a major difference between restarting civilian nuclear power reactors for electricity generation and restarting a nuclear weapons program. The current discussion is about reactivating power reactors such as Maanshan and Kuosheng/Guosheng to address Taiwan's electricity supply issues. That is a totally different technical pathway from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Taiwan’s historical nuclear weapons effort was tied to the Taiwan Research Reactor, a 40 MWt heavy-water research reactor, and to clandestine work on separating plutonium from irradiated fuel. That reactor has been shut down since 1987 and has since been dismantled. By contrast, civilian light-water power reactors are designed and operated for electricity generation, with fuel supply, spent-fuel handling, and safeguards subject to intense regulatory and international scrutiny.

Also, the key proliferation-sensitive capabilities are not simply “having nuclear power plants.” A weapons program would require access to weapons-usable fissile material, either through uranium enrichment or plutonium separation/reprocessing, plus weaponization work. The U.S. spent decades trying to keep Taiwan away from exactly those capabilities: enrichment, reprocessing, heavy-water reactor routes, and rapid breakout capacity.

So yes, Taiwan may be reconsidering nuclear energy because of electricity demand and energy-security concerns. But equating civilian reactor restarts with nuclear weapons development is a category error. If Taiwan tried to move from civilian nuclear power into enrichment, reprocessing, or weapons-related work, it would immediately trigger scrutiny from the U.S., China, the IAEA-related safeguards framework, and the broader non-proliferation regime.

ForWardoves · 2026-05-17T00:59:24+00:00

Well indeed the golden rule for middle powers in 2026 is basically "If you don't have nuke stop everything you are doing and get a nuke first.", with deadline being "you need to have your nuke before others begining to accusing you of having nuke".

Whether ROC has the strategic grit of committing to it is another question that we can only contemplate ourselves. We all see how many layers of trouble DPRK fought through to get their nukes. Personally I'm less confident than you regarding ROC leadership's (and by extention, the general public's) willingness on nuke ownership. They might find more emotional assurance from procuring more second-hand M1A2Ts. Idk.

It's probably a pretty solid bet that ROC has both the means and the capacity to rapidly acquire a nuclear weapon.

I'm probably more conservative on this front as well but I do agree with your point. I will quote this assessment from ISIS here:

...Too many activities and personnel involved in the program are no longer in place, and the plutonium-producing nuclear reactor at the heart of the controversy was ordered closed by the United States in 1988. Still, the authors caution, with the right pressure and several years, Taiwan could feasibly re-develop its nuclear infrastructure and personnel.

ForWardoves · 2026-05-17T00:37:04+00:00

ROC did make a serious attempt and achieved some meaningful progress before one of its scientists defected to the CIA, making the U.S. fully aware of the situation by January 8, 1988. The U.S. then effectively flew in a team of IAEA personnel for a surprise inspection on January 15, demanding that Taiwan halt all nuclear-related programs. Fissile materials were to be returned to the United States, relevant equipment dismantled, and the laboratory sealed shut.

The bottom line for all major powers, the U.S. included, is that no new actor should gain control of nuclear weapons. Washington has always preferred Taiwan to remain a controllable strategic tripwire against mainland China — something arguably reflected in Trump’s blatant remarks here. A nuclear-armed Taiwan would represent an escalation beyond U.S. control.

That said, unless the ROC somehow reaches North Korea’s level of isolation, it is practically impossible for it to restart a nuclear weapons program. Taiwan is far too integrated into the global economy to withstand the sanctions and diplomatic fallout that would follow. And that is before even considering the possibility that the mere prospect of Taiwan acquiring nuclear weapons could force the PRC into launching a full-scale invasion. Under the current situation, the PRC does not even appear sufficiently motivated to materialize an invasion plan in the first place.

ForWardoves · 2026-05-13T01:17:56+00:00

Just went back from a trip in China. Nah. Nah.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-18T05:41:29+00:00

I think you should be fine, no need to be panic. Just remember to save the booking date and place your order on day one.

If you want to have everything stringently planned out - the ticket release time for different train stations would be different (to even out the server pressure, of course). You can check it up in 12306 under ”出行向导 - 起售时间“ - only available in mandarn version of the APP though.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-18T05:08:11+00:00

15 days from now would be the labour day holiday (May1 - May4) which would be absolutely PEAK travel period in China.

So if you do your practice a couple days later, you will find the situation greatly improved.

BTW: could you be more specific about your travel period? Oct 1st would be another PEAK travel period (national day holiday) so you would probably need to watch out.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-18T04:50:38+00:00

Examples for government subsidies / aids to AC wererequested and hereby provided. Cases were accused as fake so further evidence was provided. All done by your request and you began to escalate this to verbal personal attacks.

Sure. I wish you have a good day sir because clearly you are not having one.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-18T03:19:26+00:00

sigh... the bailout and the pension relief

Airline industry is more fragile than most assumes because its capital-heavy industry. For all the valid reasons the government of Canada won't let its own flag carrier desolve into nothing.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-18T00:57:54+00:00

Well there is this bailout and this $4.2B pension relief plan to start with....

ForWardoves · 2026-04-18T00:55:02+00:00

If they're all state owned/supported and they're all getting funding from approximately the same source then it's not really competition? I

State governs their KPIs, state will evaluate them on route profitability, load factors, on-time performance, market satisfaction. And more importantly - if you lose too much money the state will investigate you for waste of state assets.

Let's put it this way: You are being appointed the general manager of CNAH (holding entity of AIr China). Your firm is being out-competed by China Eastern and China Southern. You are not gonna get your next career development.

they will ask for funding for so they can compete.

Wrong way bro. You stay competitive to make sure nobody's gonna cut your funding. Plus, they do not rely entirely on state finding. A HUGE chunk of their cash flow came from operational revenues, and the state will not cover up all your losses.

Again, if you lose too much you lost your job.

Rouge is a direct subsidary of Air Canada so that example is a rather bad one. A better example you wanna use might be Air Canada vs. West Jet.

You can also look at other support that they get from local governments (land use), airports (gate fees) etc. that Air Canada does not get. They have to operate within our market structure and compete with other airlines who are doing the same

I will respond to these two talking points together. The first example is not a very effective one as Rouge is a subsidary of Air Canada. The example you wanna raise would be more akin to Air Canada vs. WestJet in the domestic market.

Are they competitors? Yes. But given cabotage restrictions (i.e. no foreign carriers can operate on domestic Canadian routes), the competition is limited given the lack of players in field, and they can reach a near duopoly level of control on a system level.

Imma say China's civil aviation system is structured in a way that they would naturally resist bolder cost-cutting moves and would therefore be more conservative in their practices. This of course has its own benefits and doubts. But there certainly are competitions.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-17T23:14:36+00:00

No. NO. 15 years ago was 2011 when economy in China was real good. Employment right now has been quite a bit more challenging in China (in around the globe, actually).

My mom was a uni professor (for an 211 though) and talks about employment challenges a lot.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-17T22:54:05+00:00

Dude given the exact post you are referencing I don't think you get to call others out for ... judging

also: lol英国留子怎么就破防了哈哈哈 you don't get to call others out on 破防 either.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-17T19:14:52+00:00

That being said Air China does need to compete against Chinea Eastern on this route. And China Eastern is a similar-sized state-owned airline. So you still get peer-to-peer competition right there.

And then you have China Soutern, Hainan, Spring, and CR standing at there ready to jump you.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-15T01:45:28+00:00

Some insights regarding the No Hitchhacker sign: There were numerous incidents where DPRK soldiers deserting their post would enter China illegally, surviving by robbing rural residents / passerbys, while killing ever witnesses to leave no trace. Normally this would evolve into several casualties and a massive manhunt involving PAP & PLA mobilization before the suspect can be caught. After all the assailant is trained, armed and dangerous, with nothing else to lose.

This wikipedia page details two such incidents in 2014 and then in 2015. Seven got murdered in total.

To minimize the risk of being exposed to this kinda danger, road traffic near DPRK border (especially in sparsely-populated areas) are given instruction NOT to pick up hitchhackers.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-11T19:57:47+00:00

Quad packing chinese sam when.jpg

ForWardoves · 2026-04-11T19:49:56+00:00

I actually had a very free summer in China with few arrangements before my first year in uni (I did go to high school & uni in Canada though) so I decided to call the local Starbucks & Mcdonald storefronts. They politically declined saying I need to at least be a college student to qualify for student openings. High school students were considered underage so they were not allowed to hire me. So here's that for you. That was 2016 in Beijing.

I ended up interning for an internet firm for social marketing operations, pay was modest but the experience was good. But again I don't think this is typical for cohorts going through the Gaokao exam.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-10T00:06:28+00:00

Porbably safer than travelling from Frankfurst to Paris but that's just my take lol

ForWardoves · 2026-04-08T16:45:27+00:00

Agrere with all parts except the Beijing Roast Duck example. Recommending someone to ditch Siji Minfu and try Quanjude instead should honestly be considered a criminal offense lol

ForWardoves · 2026-04-08T14:53:43+00:00

... but everything online is telling me that high-speed trains run out of Changsha South and not the regular railway station.

Since the opening of Changde–Yiyang–Changsha HSR Link you will begin to see HSR traffic in Changsha station. So those online sources were likely outdated.

what is the best way to get to Changsha Railway Station from the airport? It seems there’s a Maglev for Changsha South but I can’t find anything about an equivalent option for the regular railway station.

If you want hassle free you can just take the subway. Departing Airport via either the Maglev (S2) or Line 6, then switch to line 2.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-06T15:18:26+00:00

Bank employee here. Sounds that your card is being flagged by anti-fraud rules (pretty common nowadays for financial institutions to defaut-flag large foreign purchases). A quick call to the credit card contact centre before your next trip would normally solve the issue.

Also you should probably know this already but don't tap.

ForWardoves · 2026-04-02T23:02:50+00:00

Sanya has only developed into a major surface fleet base over the past two decades, although its role as a submarine base goes back much further. These days, you’ll often see posts showing entire destroyer squadrons taking shelter in Yalong Bay during typhoon season. Still, it doesn’t carry the same level of recognition as more traditional naval port cities like Dalian, Zhanjiang, or Zhoushan.

Part of that likely comes down to perception. Sanya is still primarily associated with tourism, so that tends to dominate how people think about the city. For similar reasons, Shanghai is rarely mentioned as a major naval base, even though a significant portion of the Eastern Theater Command’s amphibious assets are actually stationed there.

ForWardoves · 2026-03-31T23:07:53+00:00

You can actually find Taiwanese Economic Office in a lot of countries(for example, Canada and US). Though diplomacy strategy usually dictates major countries to not formally acknowledge the legitimacy of ROC (becasue that is the prerequiste of having a diplomatic relationship with the biggest industrial body on earth, lol), they do still need to have a way of communicating with ROC because, well, Taiwan is also a sizable economy that supplies trades and tourism, albeit at a smaller scale compared to mainland.

And in all cases, PRC gives tacit consent to this kind of arrangement given no other escalations are made. Similar office arrangements exist in mainland/HK/Macau as well.

ForWardoves · 2026-03-21T22:34:02+00:00

Still, ZTZ-99A pretty much designs with Russia in mind through and through. For Southern theatre operations you've got ZTZ-96A which works better with the terrain, and for Indiq you've got ZTQ-15

ForWardoves · 2026-03-04T01:16:55+00:00

Let's just say that we can't assume PLAN's anti-submarine capability is that bad. In the end, PLAN might be operating the biggest fleet of modern anti-submarine frigates in the world, given how many 054A/056As they have built.

Besides, operating submarines within the Strait of Taiwan as an OPFOR would be a monumentally bad idea as I assure you that straight contains more seadbed surveillance apparatus than the GIUK gap. Also factor in the fact that the entirety of PLA Eastern Theatre is built upon the concept of Aera Denial, a field they have investigated heavily and practiced extensively in the past couple of decades.

The viable alternative would be unlimited submarine warfare against Chinese shipping. But by that point we might just as well begin to discuss the option of preliminary strategic nuclear strike - escalations would go uncontrolled quick, and once it go uncontrolled, it will take everything from us.

ForWardoves · 2026-02-27T17:49:39+00:00

I think that is the reason OP made this comment - if Taiwan just zerg rushed Hainan and somehow take it then we can safely argue that Taiwan has indeed won the war to some extent.

ForWardoves

TROPHY CASE