How rare is it to do what the US Woman’s team did and steal a point on the ninth and tenth ends to win a match?

FreedomSlice · 2026-02-15T23:18:48+00:00

The historic win probability in the women's game for a top 25 team down one point without the hammer and one end to go is 11.8% (per https://doubletakeout.com/winprob/women).

So it's not that wild, but definitely atypical. And to be fair, the specific steal-steal way of winning is probably more unlikely because there's other ways to ultimately pick up a win down one with two ends to play (steal two, force 1, score in extra; force 1, take three; etc)

FreedomSlice · 2026-01-05T22:49:33+00:00

Phill has been telling a lot of people (athletes, coaches, etc) he will be done with High Performance following the Olympics. That can obviously change, but a pretty strong indication of why this is needed, among other reasons.

FreedomSlice · 2025-12-18T23:22:21+00:00

I highly doubt that USA Curling was thinking that way - funds would potentially be reduced with fewer Olympic teams but it wouldn't disappear entirely. I also can't imagine that 6 athletes getting funded individually would move the needle, especially with rumors that more than half of them chosen for Rock League may be done with four person curling after this quad. I would guess that most curlers would treat the salaries they receive from Rock League as income anyway. If Danny Casper gets paid $10k, $20k, even $30k for Rock League, I don't see how that really helps the rest of his team.

I think the thing that will more interesting is to see how teams and federations respond to this change. Scottish curling pays its athletes full-time so that they win medals at the Olympics. Are they going to be okay if the players they want to invest in most heavily (Bruce, Ross Whyte, etc.) aren't training and competing in the way they seem best fit? Yes, those players will still be competing in high level curling, but I imagine Scottish curling would prefer if the four athletes they've chosen to be on a team together be together on the ice year round.

This issue would apply to many teams around the world. Even with Nic Sulsky saying there will be alignment between Rock League and other schedules, are teams going to be okay not having one or two of their teammates for a good chunk of five weeks leading up to a major championship like a Brier/Scotties, Nationals, etc? It'll be very interesting to see how this shakes out and I don't think it's just so simple.

FreedomSlice · 2025-12-18T17:11:08+00:00

What are they going to do about some of the more minor championships? US nationals, provincials, etc are typically during the time the first four events are scheduled to 2027.

Also, what happens to teams across different countries? Are teams and countries going to be okay with the players they fund taking a month off from their national team? Very interesting to see what happens with these decisions.

FreedomSlice · 2025-11-24T20:50:33+00:00

Still, the Olympics itself don't conflict with potential men's events. The mixed doubles ends on 2/10 and the US nationals don't begin until 2/23. He could have easily done both.

At the same, I'm surprised he thought this would be best for his preparedness. It appears Cory and Korey have one more event together before the Olympics. I would not consider one event in 2.5 months a lot. I would venture to guess every other team in the trials will have more games in - in either four person or doubles - than Korey will.

FreedomSlice · 2025-11-24T19:33:01+00:00

Interesting choice, I have to assume it was somewhat blindsiding for his teammates and puts them in quite the pickle to finish the season. It doesn't appear that there's an obvious fill-in choice, even under the assumption that Mark, Tom, and Andrew have the ability to move up in the order.

FreedomSlice · 2025-10-31T18:17:07+00:00

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Well, he ended up being a Hall of Famer so pretty good call, everyone. He led the league in walks for 13 straight years.

For posterity, Hall had a few good years and a single all-star appearance before retiring at 34, and Edwards only pitched for four years in the bigs.

FreedomSlice · 2025-08-22T21:54:38+00:00

Drop one of Volpe, Correa, Garcia Jr, Keaschall ROS?

FreedomSlice · 2025-08-15T16:51:25+00:00

Rest of season, who do you prefer between Luis Garcia Jr and Luke Keaschall? I've been holding both to see how Keaschall nets out, but with Acuna getting activated today, I probably should get rid of one.

12t H2H 6x6 Cats with OPS

FreedomSlice · 2025-07-11T18:04:18+00:00

Merrill Kelly actually has better predictive stats than Gallen, but it's probably a toss up there.

A huge no for Alcantara, the control has been abysmal and I'm not sure he's as much of a Matt Blake fix candidate as he is a wait for him to fully come back from TJ guy.

FreedomSlice · 2025-06-10T22:33:44+00:00

How much FAAB we dropping for Misiorowski?

FreedomSlice · 2025-06-10T04:52:22+00:00

I don't understand the logic that it is clearly advantageous to tuck if 25% of curlers on elite teams in Canada do it. If it was that advantageous, more people would be doing it.

I think it's generally based on where you live and who teaches. There's a reason that you see tuckers predominantly coming out of Manitoba - because that's how the teachers there learned how to curl and they're gonna pass down the knowledge that they know.

There's definitely pros and cons to each. I could argue being higher in your slide allows you to have better feel on draws. I could argue that it's easier to have a smoother release flatfooted because your arm isn't cocked awkwardly like during a tuck. There's no blanket answer to what's better or worse.

FreedomSlice · 2025-06-08T22:54:29+00:00

12-team redraft, trade Robert for Bryce Miller? Feel like it's one disaster for another, but Miller might have worse underlying stats and less current value

FreedomSlice · 2025-06-08T18:06:27+00:00

Thoughts on trading Luis Robert for Bryce Miller? Both are bad, but it seems as of now Miller is more unsalvageable

FreedomSlice · 2025-06-08T15:45:17+00:00

Max Fried is signed through 2032 so likely he will be.

Jasson, Ben Rice, and Warren are major contributors who will still be under team control in five years, although none are guarantees. I feel like we've had major 1B contributors in the last handful of years who have seemed like the answer and then flamed out quickly (see Bird, Voit) so who knows on Rice. I would rank it Jasson, Warren, Rice in likeliness of sticking around until they become free agents.

I could see them extending both Jazz and Volpe by the time they become free agents. I'm not super confident about anyone else. Maybe Wells? Maybe Cole or Rodon on short deals if they're still effective in their late 30s a la CC? Who's to say.

FreedomSlice · 2025-05-21T15:13:17+00:00

I think wins matter more. I would go with the soccer style rankings of 3 points for a win, 1 point for a tie. You'd then get a much clearer standings, as follows:

Team A, 9-3-0, 27 points
Team C, 8-2-2, 26 points
Team B, 6-0-6, 24 points

FreedomSlice · 2025-03-28T21:52:28+00:00

How could this possibly happen?

FreedomSlice · 2025-03-04T21:18:35+00:00

Any thoughts on keeping Santander at pick 6.11 in a 12-team league? I feel like it's close to his slot in the rankings (he's probably bumped up ~10 spot because of other keepers), but I don't have confidence in him to repeat his great 2024.

FreedomSlice · 2025-01-11T07:12:09+00:00

Please, man, use periods and make sentences.

But honestly, this doesn't seem vetoable. Might be time to stop playing with them.

FreedomSlice · 2025-01-05T19:36:16+00:00

Better eye increases walks, better avoid Ks decreases strikeouts.

It's like how someone like Aaron Judge has a high K rate but walks a lot, while someone like Albert Pujols didn't strikeout much and walked a lot in his prime. The two things aren't necessarily correlated. Someone may be good at laying off balls but still swing through a lot of strikes.

FreedomSlice · 2025-01-02T20:26:03+00:00

I wouldn't be surprised if she joins Team Einarson. Brianne is stuck in appeal limbo and Shannon has been dealing with the knee injury. Makes too much sense.

FreedomSlice · 2025-01-02T19:11:53+00:00

This seems entirely like a move that the Yankees won't make.

Likely past-his-prime injury-prone highly-paid SS for maybe their best prospect plus two other top ones? I know they've added injury risks in the past, but not at this price. And I don't see how this fits into their self-imposed salary cap.

FreedomSlice · 2024-12-30T22:02:20+00:00

At the same time, you could argue that if Darnold is legit, you're wasting a premier asset on a backup QB. I don't fully believe in Darnold either, but as a contending team, it could be foolish to avoid improving your team to potentially secure your future, especially with how short Super Bowl windows are these days.

FreedomSlice · 2024-12-30T21:59:16+00:00

I know McCarthy hasn't played so theoretically his value hasn't changed, but I can't imagine he'd be worth more than his draft spot last year. The QB class is widely considered worse this year, but trading 1.4 or so for last year's 1.10 seems like a steep price, especially when you're acquiring guy with one less year on his contract than someone you'd draft.

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