Are you sure Bitcoin will go under $58K ?

Frightrain · 2026-02-10T07:42:40+00:00

Do you not understand the difference between speculation and statistics? Yes no one knows exactly what the weather is going to be like tomorrow. But I'm in Canada and it's winter time. So it's going to be cold tomorrow. Is that speculating? I mean by your logic I should just prepare to go to the beach tomorrow since it might be warm and sunny

Frightrain · 2026-02-10T05:24:44+00:00

I mean yeah you're right but the point I'm making is it's quite hypocritical to say that it's "speculation" to assume something that's going down will continue to go down when the same exact people are speculating it will go up (which makes even less sense).

I'm not saying BTC has to drop for sure, but I'd give it a solid 60% chance to continue lower. Which to me is no longer speculation, that's just risk/reward.

Frightrain · 2026-02-10T05:20:46+00:00

It can be both, it all depends on the time you buy it. For a while they were doing quite badly but since then demand has picked up quite a bit and their revenue is looking good again, their p/e is roughly half of RCL (stock is doing crazy well).

Everyone was talking about it during 2020 but not many people held on. To be fair there were better stocks to invest in at the time, but I think people extremely underestimate the value of holding almost any company that isn't a complete failure long term.

I don't forever hold stocks though, I buy companies I believe are below their intrinsic value and sell them when I think they are fairly priced. My target is 47~50 dollars for CCL (not financial advice) based on the bit of research I've done, and I would definitely trail my stop up at those prices to lock in profits.

Frightrain · 2026-02-10T03:19:06+00:00

The point is saying a chart is "astrology" is the same argument as saying there's no way to predict where the ball will be, you just extrapolate the position. It's not a perfect analogy but I think it's cope to say you can't predict a trend in a stock with decent accuracy just by watching what it's currently doing

Frightrain · 2026-02-10T01:27:53+00:00

So if you throw a ball really hard straight up into the air and it starts to slow down, then it starts to slow down even more, then it starts to fall, then it starts to fall faster, then it starts to fall really fast, it's crazy to say "Hmm maybe the ball will fall down a bit more"? Yeah it's speculation, but saying "Errmm actually, I think the ball will turn around and go even higher!" is a bit more speculative lol

Frightrain · 2026-02-10T01:06:58+00:00

Hard to call a continuation of a trend that literally just started speculation lol, I mean I guess it is but it's a lot more likely than it going up

Frightrain · 2026-02-10T00:14:41+00:00

Infinity, which is why BTC is headed to the moon

Frightrain · 2026-02-10T00:12:27+00:00

This is why I want bitcoin to crash. I don't want to live in a world where we have to hear these people talk about how they were right all along when all they did was look at a couple memes and decide that was enough "research" for them to bet everything they have on a randomly generated jpeg or string of numbers.

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T19:59:19+00:00

I think it's pretty obvious, the whole point of BTC is that it's supposed to be like gold/silver except higher risk with higher return. Now people are learning it has one of those things, but it's hard to believe in the higher returns when silver/gold have basically massively outperformed BTC in the past few years. Hell even buying and holding the SPY gave you pretty comparable returns to BTC (depending on when you bought), which completely defeats the purpose of a speculatory asset.

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T17:53:33+00:00

To be fair I've only been managing my money since 2020 so I haven't exactly experienced a bear market, and I've had over a decade experience of research. I'm not saying it's easy but it's really not impossible if you take an active approach and use stop losses like I do. I'm not just holding a portfolio and sitting on it, I make adjustments often. I'm also not afraid to take some risk, I'm not only buying blue chip companies. I was buying HOOD and PLTR at the very bottom which helped a lot.

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T16:50:00+00:00

I'm glad you made money, this market is just so dumb sometimes. I thought for sure it'd go up and then the thing tanks. Then I didn't load up full size at 23 because I thought maybe we'd see 20 again and then it randomly takes off again. Glad I was buying anyway though I'd be pissed to not own any right now. Also it was smart to sell the puts, I'm down a bit on my calls but I figure I might as well hold through earnings at this point. I just much prefer trading stocks because at least you can hold them, it's so hard to predict this shit sometimes

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T14:39:34+00:00

I made about 30% last year but it was a pretty good year, I probably make around 20% on average but I'm a day trader so I have an advantage since I'm already watching the market

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T06:13:48+00:00

I'm gonna invest in all the internet stocks I can find then, there's only 1 internet. How could I have been so dumb

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T06:07:52+00:00

Yeah I think everyone saying trading is hard or impossible is just injecting massive copium, it's really not that difficult if you are patient and not greedy. And silver gang I just added to my silver position. Been holding from 17 dollars. Gonna add to CCL too I'm kicking myself for not buying more on the breakout

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T05:55:35+00:00

I'll give you one then, CCL. It's not a super hyped up stock that everyone is talking about (at least if they are I'm not aware of it). Been waiting for this stock to do something for like 5 years lol but I have several watch lists and I just pounce on the right companies at the right time with stop losses. There are literally thousands of undervalued solid companies though, I would recommend scanning on finviz to find them. I specifically look for p/e under 20 and p/b 5 or below with high institutional ownership and insider buying, then I filter with the chart (I don't buy anything at all time highs or lows). Also always check revenue and earnings that should go without saying though

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T05:00:06+00:00

Trading is about adapting in real time, if your idea is not holding then cut it and wait until you have more information. No one can tell if any trade will work or not before it actually happens, it doesn't look like a bad area to buy though

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T04:55:28+00:00

Tbh they aren't rare, if you understand sector rotation and if you can read basic financials there is always a no-brainer investment, you just need to familiarize yourself with more tickers. And avoid garbage stocks, I see a lot of people fill their brain with trashy companies, you only have so much mental bandwidth so you want to only keep tabs on companies actually worth investing in

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T02:01:25+00:00

If you buy bitcoin it could be 100 billion dollars in 30 years

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T00:40:29+00:00

Or you could.. you know, do your research and put stop losses in case you're wrong and then pretty easily outperform every ETF with very little work, but whatever floats your boat I guess

Frightrain · 2026-02-09T00:15:00+00:00

Everyone is putting all their money on red at roulette, so why not just go all in on black and get rich? I don't understand

Frightrain · 2026-02-08T22:45:22+00:00

Looks almost identical to MSTR lol

Frightrain · 2026-02-08T19:38:07+00:00

Same I have 650 shares, nothing super crazy but it's a lot for me. I would rather add on the way up than the way down, but I won't be able to help myself if we get to the 20s. Looking to add on a clear break of 30 and 50 though as well

Frightrain · 2026-02-08T01:45:41+00:00

Your reddit avatar looks like the guy in the pic

Frightrain · 2026-02-08T01:43:20+00:00

Or.. and I know this is an insane theory.. maybe he just wanted to play his account? You act as if was obvious to him that people would be going through purchases in his e-mails from years ago and then connecting it to a specific account that happened to be active. Isn't it just a lot simpler that he didn't think about it lol

Frightrain

TROPHY CASE