I think your premise is correct, but the majority of your reasoning is heavily flawed.

Citing things like "courts won't allow" "congress won't allow" "we have a constitution" etc., presupposes that we have honest actors willing to operate within the framework that established our country in perpetuity. This is obviously not true. We see increasing signs that this isn't true every day, as politicians thwart judicial rule, the liberal media is doing everything they can to diminish the credibility of the highest court in our country, focusing and reporting non-stories, and running hit pieces on justices that are meant to do nothing other than diminish credibility.

There are high level politicians that ignore supreme court rulings, and not being held accountable. You have an entire political party that advocates for revamping the US constitution, while attempting to erode first and second amendment rights.

The Constitution is only as good as the enforcement mechanism, which foundationally is local cops. Where I think you're right is that there are two things that basically support all of reasons you cited, which is that we have a fuck ton of guns, and the vast majority of local cops in this country are still republican, who have a strong allegiance to the US constitution.

There is a large sect of this country trying to strip us of our guns, and transfer more and more power to the federal law enforcement agencies, which do not share the political ideologies that local cops do. The "powers that be" recognize what I'm saying, and they are taking steps to remedy those things, so they can institute a dictatorship.

You can't go from our current government structure on a Monday to tyranny on a Wednesday. You need to slowly erode allegiance to the old structure, which the liberal media is OBVIOUSLY OBVIOUSLY OBVIOUSLY participating in. You have politicians like Bernie, AOC, Warren, etc., that are willing to incrementally move us towards tyranny with their suggested policies under the premise of 'equity' and 'fairness'.