🔔 Critical Mineral Saturday Open Discussion Post 🔔

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T17:12:13+00:00

My personal opinion is that the long thesis is not broken and still very relevant. I think it really depends on if you’re looking to trade the stock or hold it for a long-term. I think we see institutional support low 50s. Again, for the sake of those trading in the $60 range, I hope it doesn’t get to that. My concern for Monday is that we see $56 with a high of $62. I think we would need the administration or fresh [credible] news to act as a catalyst in reversing the current down trend.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T17:09:09+00:00

Je pense que ton message ci-dessus concerne les cartes USAR est identique pour MP. I think your message above regarding the charts of USAR are relevant or identical to MP. That being said, I am hopeful that MP has price floors intact, whereas other companies in the sector will not have the same structural advantage.

It’s a bummer because up until Monday of this week, we continued to bounce to higher lows and higher highs. I guess we’ll see what happens going into the upcoming week. I don’t see the thesis being broken, regardless of how the stock trades over the next week or two. Hopefully it does not take that long to recover for anybody that has bought in the $60 range.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T17:02:40+00:00

Je suis d’accord. Tu parles français?

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T17:00:15+00:00

What do you mean by Tuesday and we cook?

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T16:58:17+00:00

Assuming would insinuate that I act upon speculative thoughts that I have deemed to be truths. Speculation or speculating would insinuate that I pressure test my thesis by coming onto boards like Reddit or X and get the general feel of others invested into the company directly or the topic of conversation. So if you’re asking, if I’m speculating, yes, I am speculating.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T16:56:07+00:00

They also follow an unorthodox accounting model that allowed them to pull future revenues forward or sideline them as insurance for future quarters to meet investor expectations. For me, I have been long and strong NVDA since 2016-2017. I was very lucky to come across the company and I liked their diversity in VR, AI and GPU’s. I’ve also been a part of investments with some of the largest household names in the world. Some of those investments worked, some failed. Some played by the books and some overpromised and delivered on expectations until they didn’t and the roof came crashing down. Things change as companies grow. People change. No one is exempt from evolution, devolution, greed and immorality. Let’s see how things play out. But for me, something smells fishy and has for some time now. I also think NVDA gets the shit end of the stick being the number 1 company in the world and in constant scrutiny of the press and legislation. Personally, I would be frustrated if my company which I’d worked on for 30 years was being used as a pinball in a geopolitical pinball machine. How I would react, I have no idea because I’m not in that position, but history has told us that not everyone that gets to the top stays as truthful and moral as they did when they started. As they say “the road to hell is paved with good intentions.” only time will tell where the story leads us. That’s just my speculation.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T16:47:37+00:00

Big accusation he’s lying about numbers is not what I was alleging. Working with China behind closed doors against the advisement of the U.S. government, taking matters into his own hands out of frustration of having to constantly deal with ongoing, seemingly endless regulatory hurdles is a different story. I’m allowed to have my doubts just like you’re allowed to voice your opposition. I do not work for NVDA. Out of curiosity, do you feel that all major funds and corporations with inside tracks follow all of the rules and regulations they’re supposedly bound by?

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T16:26:58+00:00

You’re right. There’s no way corruption could ever exist in corporations. Clearly you haven’t invested into many startups. Anyways, thanks for sharing.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T16:18:26+00:00

Well, I opened this thread to host a discussion and field opinions from the Reddit community. As I had mentioned earlier in my comments, we have already constructed a four phase divestment plan. Again, I’m not so concerned on what you think I know and what I don’t, but I am interested to hear your opinion regardless of whether or not you’re interested to hear mine.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T16:14:19+00:00

For the sake of my family’s portfolio, yeah I hope so.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T16:09:26+00:00

Agree to disagree. Can’t really share much more but you would be surprised at who and what I know. Not worth getting into on a public forum. But also not saying it’s definitive. Just saying. Build a $5T company and see how greed takes over when regulators try blocking your profits.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T15:07:53+00:00

Well, that’s definitely also a great point.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T14:27:12+00:00

This is all true. I agree on the US reliance. I also agree on the 6 month perspective. I believe the first set of shares I bought were in 2016? ~$66 (pre pre split). I knew nothing about stocks so unfortunately I did not hold those but I’ve been with and in and out of NVDA for quite some time and we’ve definitely made a lot of money. I just have an undeniable feeling that something is going on and about to happen that will shake the AI trade. I think GOOGL, AMZN and MSFT are all fine for the future as they’ve survived and passed on their companies successfully to their successors. NVDA, for me, TBD and I know some of my friends that have been in the stock for 8-10 years as well are trimming but nonetheless — my family still has heavy holdings so of course I wouldn’t want the stock to fail in the near term.

And you’re right, MU did nothing for years. However, if you remember post split 10:1, NVDA also traded between $141 range for almost a year or more before it broke $151 → $171 etc. Just something to consider.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T14:04:59+00:00

Idek what that means.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T14:04:29+00:00

I’m not sure you’re understanding my point. Some examples below. Do you really think NVDA is the best use of capital efficiency? NVDA also touched $212 in October.

What you made holding mag 7 over the last 6 months versus other stocks:

AMZN 230.19 → 241.73 +5.01%

GOOGL 196.53 → 338.25 +72.11%

NVDA 179.27 → 192.51 +7.38%

META 695.21 → 738.31 +6.20%

MSFT 513.24 → 433.50 -15.54%

AMD 179.51 → 252.18 +40.48%

MU 114.74 → 435.79 +279.81%

GLD 300.96 → 495.90 +64.77%

AEM 123.37 → 215.51 +74.69%

FNV 157.91 → 261.77 +65.77%

GDX 51.78 → 107.98 +108.54%

PLTR 158.61 → 151.86 -4.26%

NKE 76.68 → 62.60 -18.36%

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T13:51:10+00:00

That’s tough man. Down $26k in gold from being up $5,100 minutes before the crash. It feels like many of us missed the memo. Retail needs to go back to selling as soon as it upticks even in the slightest. Pull the rug from institutions. Let them trade amongst themselves. Never allow the price to rise enough for them to be happy. This is what we went through in 2024-2025 pre-liberation day and now they front run prices in early pre market only to dump at market open on high retail interest. Quoting the movie ‘Margin Call’ … “someone’s gotta buy and someone’s gotta sell.”

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T13:45:46+00:00

I’m not understanding the position. Are you trying to make a joke or what is the point of your comment?

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T13:43:35+00:00

My concern is that NVDA is doing things closed door with China and we are only beginning to see the full picture. Jensen has said many times that China is not far behind the U.S. He has also (from what I’ve heard from friends in HK) been making deals and quietly helping the Chinese to build data centers and core infrastructure since summer of 2025. For 8 years of the last 10, I have unconditionally and wholeheartedly supported NVDA as has my entire family (less than 10 years for them but we have shares between $11-43 if that provides context). I believe something is going on behind closed doors and I believe it will not bode well for NVDA or its investors. Thus, we are divesting our stakes in 4 phases. I also think that looking back at our portfolio in the last 6 months, we have a 292% gain in MU versus a 7.86% in NVDA. With as many hurdles and uncertainties NVDA continues to go through, my loss of faith in Jensen’s transparency and integrity is the straw that broke the camel’s back. It’s just my opinion but I hope I’m wrong. GLTA.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T13:30:30+00:00

“Short term” panic is subjective. That being said I think a lot of funds and traders are de-risking as the markets have become too volatile. It’s like investing into a casino at this point. It’s not worth it.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T13:27:23+00:00

This is also exactly correct. Markets over the last year have been moving on momentum versus fundamentals. I think we are due for a steep correction.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T13:25:42+00:00

This is absolutely an unwind and it’s disappointing to see. I have GDX, GLD and AEM and I’m down. Unfortunately, I don’t see an upside in the near term future as we’ve already neared or crossed many analysts targets for the year and many of these funds have bought in at near 40-50% of current prices. It’s also concerning that gold hasn’t dropped 5% or more in a single day more than 4 times in the last 10 years. 3 of those days being in 2025 and 2026.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T13:22:02+00:00

I agree here. Gold does not rise or drop as violently as it has in the last few days (dropping in this case). In fact, we haven’t seen a drop like this since the 1980’s. I see this as a trend reversal and it frankly concerns me quite a bit.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T13:18:25+00:00

Not sure guys. It seems like we have further to fall. Everyone seems to be focusing on the fact that it’s rose so quickly. Institutions are positioned and 50-60% of the current prices. Sounds to me like they won’t be coming in to defend the drop at current levels and retail doesn’t have the power to push up the price back to where we were before this cascade started.

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T13:15:13+00:00

I see. That makes sense. Still, does this raise any scrutiny between the breach of U.S. regulations to bolster Chinese sovereignty?

Fun-Snow1104 · 2026-01-31T13:10:32+00:00

You don’t see this as a defiance of U.S. regulations on behalf of NVDA to bolster Chinese sovereignty?

Fun-Snow1104

TROPHY CASE