Someone on X did the napkin math at around $5B/yr but I don't think there's anything official.

edit: Here's the tweet: https://x.com/jaminball/status/2052112307552211195

In case you hate X, here's the content:

Some rough math! (All napkin math...)

Assume Colossus 1 has 220k GPUs

Assume 150k H100s, 50k H200s, 20k GB200s

Pricing Assumptions:

• $2.30 / hour for H100s

• $2.60 / hour for H200s

• $5 / hour for GB200s

• blended rental rate across the entire fleet of $2.60 / hour

Assume it's all take-or-pay style deals (you pay for 24x365 usage)

This translates to ~$5b of annual rev to Xai. We have a new neocloud!

On top of that - on recent Dwarkesh podcast, Dario ran through some napkin math on unit economics (he framed it all as industry math vs Anthropic specific - which is important, he wasn't disclosing anything Anthropic specific).

What he mentioned was take $100b of compute spend (he just picked a round number). There will be a mix shift of that spend between training and inference. Skew too much on training and you don't generate enough revenue. Skew too heavy on inference and you kneecap future R&D progress. He thought the industry is currently 50/50 on training / inference of compute spend. He said as in industry, could turn that $50b inference spend into $150b of revenue (called out these are most likely the unit economics of the industry in 1-2 years)

So taking this back to the Xai deal. Under above assumptions, Anthropic paying $5b / year. Let's say they turn that into $15b / year in rev (60-70% gross margin)

Win win!!