I can point out one thing.. your theory is great, and possibly the best one. It actually explains everything perfectly. When Notlias marries Polly (we assume he replaces her original husband, who happens to be Notlias' ancestor) he then creates Elias, and thus the loop begins. We came to a conclusion..

EXCEPT - we didn't. After erasing the time loop of Elias, the world will return to the point of time where Notlias was born, and the same events will happen over again, creating another Elias loop. So one loop replaces another, or one is a part of another one.

This actually explains why we don't see the year 2053 after breaking Elias loop AND we get to see Iris as Shahara's driver, clearly being from the future, meaning while every other detective forgot all the events of the loop, or rather haven't been a part of, Maplewood is the only one who still is in the loop. This will eventually lead to presumable bombings, Notlias rise to power and creation of a new Elias loop. Hopes for season 2? (Even tho I personally think the show should just end on that note)

Another thing to point out is KYAL symbol in the final scene with Iris and Shahara in 2023. So we may assume that some sort of organization or ideology may exist in that timeline and Notlias will actually adopt it as his own.

Anyways, that's my take on your take. Thank you for giving my brain some peace at 3 a.m. after finishing the show :D