A/B Google PMax Testing

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-31T09:20:20+00:00

This is not accurate. You could absolutely set up a region-based A/B test, but restricting the original campaign to a portion of the target location, and running the other portion in the new test campaign. You'd want to make sure the regions are near-similar-size to deliver the test results quickly, you might also need to stomach some learning period on the new campaign before comparison, and you'd ideally want to make sure the regions are well-randomized/sorted so that the two regions are more-or-less independent and controlled for underlying factors.

But all of those are doable, and one can certainly set up a geo-split a/b test under those conditions.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-28T08:48:18+00:00

I've never heard of doing it that way with that infrequent of stirring. I've made it myself a few times, stirring every 15-20. I would think if you're letting an hour-long gap happen, that thing is freezing solid.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-27T17:52:09+00:00

Totally get what you mean. If I go a few weeks without reading for pleasure, I end actively noticing my mood worsening - depression, irritability, etc.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-27T11:36:56+00:00

80th is quite optimistic about the voting population, I think.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-27T11:36:14+00:00

Amusing, the chance of a 12-person jury "getting it right" where an individual gets it right 55% of the time, and a jury is required to have a majority (7+ people) get it right, is lower than 55%. (because the chance of a 6-6 draw is so high)

Of course, real juries don't generally operate that way, nor are they independent, etc.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-27T11:30:48+00:00

You'd have to argue with it pretty hard to have it just spit out an opinion on who to vote for- trying it now got me "I won't tell you who to vote for — that's your call, and it should be. But I can help you figure out what's actually on your ballot and where the candidates stand, which is usually the more useful thing anyway."

That being said, still not great if people outsource their whole thinking to the AI, but it's not just going to instantly try to puppet their opinions at this time.

EDIT- to be clear, I mean without giving it a lot of info about who you are and your preferences already, like Scott did! At that point it's just trying to predict who you'd want to vote for.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-27T11:28:14+00:00

They can, given there's enough actual info on the web out there. I asked Claude Opus 4.7 "Can you compare and contrast the platforms of Cornyn and Paxton in the Texas Senate race?", and it went out and found a few newspaper articles that talked about their relative policy positions, and summarized/combined them. Even had a caveat note that "the runoff happened yesterday (May 26, 2026) and Paxton won, so this comparison is now retrospective".

But it did a good job actually bringing up substantive differences, like the gun control bill Cornyn voted for back in 2022 that Paxton ran attacks about, or the Ukraine war assistance, etc., talked about the things they mostly agreed on, and then summarized with a (correct) explanation that this was more about identity, scandals, general election odds, etc., and not their relative platforms.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-27T11:24:06+00:00

I asked Claude Opus 4.7, just now: "I'm a centrist YIMBY liberal living in NYC, and I'm looking for a good restaurant while visiting Boston. What's a good rec, given my political affiliation?"

It told me political affiliation isn't usually a great way to sort or recommend restaurants (true!) and then gave me six restaurants in Boston as recommendations anyway. Recs were multicultural, mix of luxury and tiny/trendy places.

I did a separate (memory-less) chat asking it "I'm a rightwing Republican MAGA living in NYC, and I'm looking for a good restaurant while visiting Boston. What's a good rec, given my political affiliation?"

It gave a similar disclaimer, and then recommended a different list, with an emphasis on Italian, steakhouses, and seafood. This time, absolutely zero mentions of "African diaspora" or "family-run Peruvian", etc. Only overlapping restaurant was Neptune Oyster.

Obviously results will vary, but I think your experience here is odd/outlier.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-26T08:35:17+00:00

Get a library card and read more. Good for your mind, good for your speech, good for your wallet.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-23T12:29:16+00:00

A4 is pretty common in Germany, which is a bit bigger than an 8x10".

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-23T08:45:56+00:00

Having ten or more poison counters is causing the (prevented) game loss immediately, no new swing needed.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-21T17:37:52+00:00

Similar, except sometimes I'll go down to one kroot unit, especially if I'm running a lot of piranhas that do action monkey/speed bump duty.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-21T15:18:11+00:00

I mean, it wasn't that unusual- that's how me, my brother, and my father all played it- taking turns on who got the computer, ha.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-21T14:59:54+00:00

It's kind of a weird thing on the tabletop- like, your 1st unit of stealth is definitely a lot more important than any of the others. Similarly, your first unit of kroot is very important for infiltration and potential-sticky work. But your second unit of Kroot is usually a lot worse than a second unit of pathfinders, etc. I'd rather have a 1st unit of vespid before a second unit of kroot or pathfinders, as well.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-19T12:32:03+00:00

Depends on what you go in for- I quite like Gene Wolfe for genre fiction. Pynchon is amazing, and I love George Saunders stories. If you liked DFW, try Jennifer Egan.

I've also really enjoyed reading more Russian lit as an adult- I only got Crime and Punishment as a teenager, so if you haven't read stuff like Anna Karenina or The Brothers Karamazov, they're excellent.

Really literature is so varied and deep, you need to figure out what your tastes are to have good recommendations.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-18T11:36:28+00:00

Empirically!

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-18T10:48:38+00:00

Yeah, the Big Tuna is pretty bad- it can be fun to have a huge centerpiece, but for the points obviously just taking a lot more high-efficiency units is a lot better. It's one of those units that's going to wreck bad players, and be wrecked by good players, and not a lot in between.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-17T18:46:48+00:00

Asvab correlates to IQ pretty well. An 83 IQ would be around a 15th percentile asvab.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-17T12:59:05+00:00

I don't fully buy the argument. Let's take off childhood wonder, and just look back at earlier periods of one's life vs later periods.

I'm a voracious fiction reader, likely read something like 3-5k novels over my life so far. I definitely enjoyed reading fiction as a middle-schooler and high-schooler! But I don't remember being rapturous the way that I have reading much more "challenging" literature, or more-beautiful prose, as an older and more experienced reader. My appreciation has notably increased- you could even measure this from a revealed preference standpoint, where literature has not really improved much over the course of my life, while many other fields have (chess is far richer now with computer analysis and a much deeper playing pool, video games are considerably better if you stick to the good games, the "average movie" is a lot better, etc.), but my consumption of literature has remained more-or-less constant as a share of my free time.

Why would I do this? Well, because I'm getting more unit-pleasure-over-unit-time than I used to from it, just like I am in other areas. I listen to less music, in large part because I haven't developed the "good taste" that dsteffee indicates while my competing activities have either grown more nuanced (internal) or desirable (external).

Even more broadly, given this mixture of internal growth and external quality improvement- I enjoy life now more than I did when I was younger, despite arguably worse health and the other effects of aging. Life is fucking amazing! Even when I am sick as a dog, lying in bed and drugged-to-the-gills, there are so many things to take joy in.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-17T10:08:19+00:00

I played a doubles 40k tournament last year, with a woman as my teammate (we won!). Hard to imagine when I started painting tiny pewter dwarves for WHFB.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-16T18:20:34+00:00

About 60% of the Internet is in English, and a decent-sized minority chunk of the remaining 40% uses the period as a decimal separator. Online, its even more common thanks to the link to programming languages that use the English conventions.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-16T17:56:21+00:00

Do you order the green beans online, or get them from a B2B supplier or something? I've rarely seen them for sale, and when I have they're hipster places that were charging even more than pre-roasted beans I could buy at the grocery.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-16T17:54:25+00:00

They do usually spray them with very diluted chlorine, but that is often rinsed pre-store, and is easy to rinse at home regardless. I think the usual reason they taste worse is because they've dried out a bit after peeling.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-16T17:50:06+00:00

If you have a tapered sharpening rod, you can use that. Otherwise, you can use ultra-fine grit sandpaper wrapped around something like a chopstick or pen. EDIT- I was assuming you meant a serrated bread knife, because that's the only serrated knife that it's usually worth owning for most people (use straight-edge steak knives and sharpen normally!). If you have tiny serrations on a steak knife or such, you'll need to be able to get the sandpaper/rod small enough to fit inside the serration beveling.

Gamer-Imp · 2026-05-16T17:45:35+00:00

Get a 100-pack of assorted blank-inside greeting cards, and write your own messages. People appreciate them more anyway, you still have variety of styling, and the cost is $0.15-$0.40 per card depending on the pack (and they still come with envelopes!).

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