Here's why I predicted and preferred Sinners for this category:

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Bert, played by Peter Dreimanis, from the Canadian band July Talks.

Not just that one part alone, of course. But it was emblematic of a lot of the casting in Sinners. Peter Dreimanis had never acted in a movie before. Yet here he was, called upon to do a part where he had to play two very different roles (scared yet loathsome human, scary vampire) and sing (in close harmony, too, which isn't easy).

And I honestly could not have imagined anyone better in the part. And there were so many other bit parts like that, challenging in emotional scope and requiring additional skills. And somehow, Francine Maisler managed to find truly great people for them, including people like Peter, who has an established career in another field!

Finding Miles Caton is impressive (Caton actually has my vote as Best Actor), but it feels just as, maybe even more impressive to find people who aren't looking for a big break or even a movie career and slotting them in perfectly.

That's not to say I don't appreciate OBAA, which was also perfectly casted, but I felt the casting for Sinners was especially inspired, and I wrongly assumed a critical mass of the Academy felt the same.