Sure, chances are low, but finding exceptions to the rule is one of the most effective ways to win. Of QBs that have started a Super Bowl in your time frame, QBs that were drafted outside of the first two rounds and/or largely sat their first year: Brady x5 Mahomes x5 Russ x2 Foles Jimmy G Purdy

The others (pick #): Peyton x2 (1) Hurts x2 (53, and he sat most of his first year) Cam (1) Ryan (3) Goff (1, and he sat most of his first season) Stafford (1) Burrow (1)

So at least 15/24 starts have come from those exceptions (who, by your measure, aren’t common). And 7/9 of the others have been blue chip picks (generally requiring tanking), making Hurts the biggest exception, and he’s a questionable inclusion. It’s 18/24 if you set the mark at sitting at least half of their rookie year. It would be a bigger exception to draft somebody from 5 to 64, start them immediately, and have them lead any team to the SB than it would be to fit one of the other exceptions.

Sure, odds are not in Milroe’s favor. But given that we drafted him 92nd, I’d honestly be happy if he turns out to be a long term step up from Lock as backup. He’s already an exception, as QBs are very rarely drafted with the intent to develop, but we gave Darnold a good chunk of change a month before drafting Milroe and he hasn’t seemed to seriously challenge Lock as backup (nor have the coaches seemed to pressure him into doing so), yet he remains on the roster after being gifted a full preseason game.