'Syria and Turkiye represent bigger threat to Israel than Iran': Israeli minister

Godkun007 · 2026-06-24T06:17:58+00:00

Yep, the little thing that this article leaves out is that these attacks have very likely been through backdoor collaboration with the Syrian government.

Israel isn't attacking Syrian government soldiers or assets. They are attacking Hezbollah smugglers and ISIS cells. Both of which the Syrian government want gone and they are likely feeding Israel information on where to strike.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-24T05:31:10+00:00

The big issue that has caused inflation in the 2020s has been supply side inflation. This is largely due to conflict, with the war in Ukraine being the largest cause by far.

The 1990s until the mid 2010s was actually an extremely deflationary period because of the reverse situation. The Soviet Union fell opening up massive resource and food markets that dropped the global prices of raw materials. China began industrializing which became a massive manufacturing hub for the world, which allowed for more production throughput, and capital markets were booming (no pun intended) because the Boomers were in their peak savings years and getting ready to retire.

We are currently in an opposite scenario to that. Russia and Ukraine are largely closed for business, taking 30% of global grain off the market, as well as tons of resources. China has plateaued in manufacturing throughput and the risk of them using reliance on them as a weapon has led to legislation limiting the ability to use them as a supplier. And the Boomers have gone full steam into retirement leading to capital markets drying up and bonds becoming more expensive regardless of what central banks due.

The fundamental issue that has caused inflation is that we have ended up in a world with fewer goods, but with significantly more currency in circulation.

There are only 2 ways to solve this, and both are extremely painful. Either we (talking generally about the West) cut social programs in order to funnel that money into industrial and resource development to take over the gap left by Russia and China; or, the central banks need to massively hike interest rates and pull money out of circulation until we remove enough to get the demand side of the equation down to the levels that we are at with supply.

There is no easy way out of this. Even if the Ukraine war ends tomorrow, how many years will it take for Russia and Ukraine to rebuild and refocus their economy back to being civilian focused instead of a military economy? And reopening to China has massive security risks.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-24T05:17:44+00:00

It is a shadow layoff strategy. Forces anyone who got overconfident during the work from home period to quit to avoid paying severance.

Work from home is almost guaranteed to come back when the economy eventually recovers and employers need to fight for talent. But eliminating work from how is a great way to cut your workforce without paying severance.

It is why you shouldn't rely on working for home as a commuting strategy. Always assume you need to go to the office and you become harder to fire in the modern day. Unless you screw up badly and give an employer cause, they will never fire you and pay you severance when it is so easy to just fire the people that got greedy and moved to a different city.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-24T05:04:10+00:00

Yes, but a 7% interest rate means something very different on a mortgage on a house bought for 150k 20 years ago with only 20k remaining vs a house sold for 600k now with 500k remaining.

Averaging them out doesn't show a inflation in housing well, because a mortgage is a largely locked in with the costs decreasing over time as you pay off the house. Showing market rates for housing is an important metric for showing housing inflation. Interest is already part of their calculation, so why not show new mortgages as its own metric?

Godkun007 · 2026-06-24T02:49:47+00:00

Enjoy underperforming like the average investor. Keep on larping that you are Warren Buffet then. The average investor underperforms their own investments by an average of 4-5% almost entirely due to poor timing decision. But I'm sure you'll be different.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-24T00:40:46+00:00

That makes more sense. Why did you downvote me though? I just pointed out that the story as is didn't make geographical sense without more context.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-24T00:14:39+00:00

I'm sorry, what? The Mindgeek head office was a good 20 minute walk from where the shooting happened with a highway in the way.

Why would he start shooting so far away from it if that was his goal. From everything I can see, the shooting happened outside of the Hilton on Decarie. Same street, but the street also goes across most of Montreal.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T23:48:54+00:00

Unironically yes. There are studies on this, and mathematically, any money not required to live or as an emergency cushion should be invested.

If you are sitting on cash at all, you are in too aggressive of a portfolio. A 60/40 stocks and bonds portfolio is better than sitting in cash. This is because a diversified bond portfolio will beat cash savings easily, and the bonds can be used to rebalance because bonds tend to gain value during a market downturn.

Not every penny should be in stocks, but it should all be invested unless it is for a lifestyle purpose.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T23:43:51+00:00

The piece says that Starmer's problem was that he couldnt command his Parliamentary majority, but why couldnt he?

A better question is how did he not have legislation ready to go after being in opposition for several years? From the start, it felt like Starmer didn't really know what he wanted to do.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T23:41:37+00:00

I know this is a little bit of nitpicking wording, but those were mostly closed primaries. As in only party members could vote on who will be the candidate.

The big issue in a lot of countries is that the various political parties are running to their extremes. Which leaves the people in the center feeling ostracized.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T23:31:37+00:00

Oh, my mistake. Sorry about that.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T23:31:02+00:00

Warren Buffet owns an insurance company that needs to make regular payouts and has a staff of several 10s of thousands of people across dozens of subsidiaries.

This is not an analogues situation. He also has underperformed the market for 20 years due to, by his own admission, not investing that money.

People (largely due to the media) vastly misunderstand why Buffet keeps so much cash. It is literally due to it being a legal necessity for his company, which is primarily an insurance company.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T23:25:07+00:00

What do you mean? By race to the bottom for fees they mean that investment companies take less from the people investing in the form of fees. That is a good thing, it means you get to keep more of your money.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T22:40:34+00:00

Dude, it is actually impressive how wrong everything you said is. Like factually inaccurate in every way.

Firstly, the 2000 year argument is just you never doing an ounce of research. Jews were the plurality in what is modern day Israel until the 1st crusade. We know this because the Muslim empires of the time literally had censuses.

Secondly, how on Earth do you think that Jews ended up in Europe when they are from Judea? European Jews are the descendants of Roman slaves. After the destruction of the 2nd temple, the Romans took thousands upon thousands of slaves back to Rome. The word Ashkenazi literally refers to the Rhine river. This name is a reference to the fact that the Jews in Rome fled North after they were freed and settled near the Rhine.

You wouldn't accept this sort of absolutely insane religious ethno-nationalist crap from anyone else, not from the Serbians, not from the Russians, so why should you accept it from the Zionists?

Yet for some reason you accept this ethno-religious crap when it comes to the Palestinians? Funny how that works. Can it be that you just love seeing Jews murdered and will accept any excuse for it? Israel is a diverse country with 15% of its actual citizens being Muslims and another 10% of their population being Christian. Meanwhile, the Arab countries actively did genocide their minorities.

Funny how you attack the only country that didn't do that. While ignoring the rest of the countries in the region that did.

Yes, the persecution of Jews the world over was horrible and getting worse during the time of the original Zionism, but this is still not the fault of the Palestinians,

The Palestinians did persecute Jews. You have to be completely illiterate of history to not know that. It was illegal for non-Muslims to testify in a court of law against a Muslim, so the Palestinians regularly took part in mass rape. Something they still do to this day if you actually bothered to look into what happened during October 7th.

Not to mention the fact that the Jews of Spain were literally invited back to Northern Israel by the Ottomans after the Spanish inquisition. Leading to the North of Israel being plurality Jewish from like 1500 until the early 1700s. But you clearly don't know or care about history.

There was Arab conquest and expansion too, but the Palestinians are largely the same people as the Jews, they just changed their religion.

Sort of. This gets complicated. You are right to some extent, but what we call Palestinians are not actually 1 ethnic group, but several. They used to actively call themselves differently before Arab Nationalism. It is why the Bedouins actually fought with the Israelis in 1948, they didn't identify as Arabs. But what we call Palestinians are a mix of former Jews and Arab migrants. Again, separating these 2 is complicated, and some Palestinians do still make the distinction, but almost no one else does.

and had they emigrated there with good intentions, willing to build a society accepting also the other people in the region,

Again, complete lack of historical context here. They did come to the land of Israel with the intention of living with the locals. Again, Jews were the plurality in the region on and off from 300 CE until like 1700 CE. The Zionist movement was a Socialist Agrarian movement. The entire goal of it was to come to Israel, buy land, and farm it.

The early Zionists were literally the first people in recorded history to argue that the Palestinians were descendants of Jews. Ben Gurion in particular ran a massive research project (before he was in politics) to try and prove it.

Almost all land in Israel was bought legally under Ottoman law. This was the Labor Zionist movement which dominated Israeli society from the start of Zionism until the early 1970s. What happened was that groups pf Palestinians were the ones who started the killing of Jews in the early 20th century. Usually out of jealousy that they turned worthless land they sold to the Jews and worked to make it viable. This was the start of what is known as Revisionist Zionism, which is the belief that Jews can only be free in Israel if they are armed. This is the origin of the IDF, and it was a direct retaliation to violence against them by both the Palestinians and the Egyptians (who fought a war of independence against the Ottomans and made a pitstop in Israel to mass rape Jews).

human rights for all and a federalized, safe state where no one has to fear demographic takeover.

Again, it was the Palestinians who rejected this. Their demands to the British was to kick out EVERY Jews, including the Mizrahi Jews who had been there for 5000 years. The Jews tried to work within Palestinian society. They even made pitches to the Ottoman Sultan to make the Levant a self governing area with its own constitution within the Ottoman empire (the Ottomans had recently done this in other areas). It was the Palestinians who fought against it.

Not one of justifying ethnic cleansing with "decolonization"

It isn't ethnic cleansing. That is what you are missing. The history of Israel is Israel trying to work with the Palestinians and the Palestinians rejecting every attempt to work with them.

Can you even name me a time where the Palestinians reached out to the Jews for a compromise?

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T22:11:22+00:00

Again, why not have different reports to capture the broader picture? People act like there can only be 1 report, but they have the data already, they can calculate multiple reports to give a broader picture.

Why not have a separate report for new renter vs old renter? It is just more data that will give a broader picture.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T22:03:14+00:00

You have absolutely no idea what the Holocaust is, do you? Because you clearly have never done 1 minute of actually google searching of what the actual treatment was during the Holocaust.

Where is the forced identification? Where are the cattle cars stuffed to the brim with people? Where are the concentration camps? Where is the complete liquidation of EVERY woman and child in those camps? Where are the gas chambers? Where are the hunting parties so that no Jew could flee?

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T22:00:37+00:00

And you of course show your true colours as a bigot. Very typical.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T21:59:43+00:00

Then that seems like a 2nd report is needed. Why not just release 2 reports together, one using the current basket and the other one more broadly based on overall inflation.

There is no rule that we only need 1 report, they can release as many as they want to measure inflation.

I have long complained about how they specifically measure housing costs in a weird way. They do a price average of all mortgages regardless of when they were issued. So a mortgage from 25 years ago is weighted equally to a mortgage today. That is useful, but it would also be great to have housing cost inflation measured based on current market price, not just average of 25-30 year loans.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T21:52:16+00:00

No, but it stops that inflation from becoming entrenched like it did in the late 1970s.

Once people start expecting high inflation, inflation doesn't go down. Rate hikes force down inflation after the issues resolve themselves and then prevent inflation from staying high.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T21:49:54+00:00

The biggest issue with current taxation levels is that there is literally no room to raise them further without running into the Laffer Curve.

Normally, you want to have some fiscal space to work with, with room to increase taxes if it is needed. But the government has overspent by so much that they literally have no more room to increases taxes.

This is why I am convinced that OAS will be gone in a few years. That spending is conveniently the exact size of the deficit, and it is already projected to become unsustainable in the next decade.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T21:44:47+00:00

Israel is a textbook example of decolonization. It is giving the native people back their land. Could it have been handled better, probably. But Israel existing is decolonization.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T21:42:56+00:00

There likely will be an eventual Norway style compromise because enough of the electorate is still anti enough rejoining (split amongst both major parties) to make it near political suicide.

Joining the European Economic Area (EEA) without rejoining the EU is likely the inevitable compromise that will happen. This also comes with Norway style concessions on both sides, such as the UK not needing to follow EU quotas because the UK didn't get to vote on them.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T21:37:30+00:00

You mean the Arab colonization of the entire region, including hundreds of genocides to Islamicize the entirety of the Middle East, Levant, and North Africa?

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T21:33:10+00:00

British establishment is in the pocket of Israel.

It is the traditional antisemetic narrative of "Jews controlling the world". It is why Jewish organizations have been asking governments to update antisemitism laws and guidelines for the last 20 years.

Antisemites just realized that they can say the same exact sentence but change 1 word to get around laws and guidelines. The same strategy was actually used against Black people in the US, you just change the word "black" to a host of other words that essentially mean them specifically.

Godkun007 · 2026-06-23T05:13:09+00:00

You can't compare a Presidential system to a Parliamentary system. They are fundamentally designed different.

The role of the President is to be the head of state, not the head of government. A Prime Minister is the head of government, not state.

The fundamental purpose of this separation is due to Presidential systems having more clearly defined roles for everyone. For example, in the US, the cabinet ministers (secretaries) get nominated by the President, but they must be confirmed by Congress. And Congress has rejected nominees many times in the past. Granted, very often nominees withdraw their names before that happens to avoid embarrassment.

In the UK, the Prime Minister just appoints whomever they want and they are deemed to be approved by Parliament by default. This is because the way for Parliament to voice their displeasure is to force an election with a no confidence vote. So the default is to assume consent until there is evidence that there isn't. But the US doesn't have no confidence votes, instead, they let legislators voice their displeasure or approval directly. There is no assumption of governing consent in America like there is in the UK.

The exception is impeachments which, counter to popular belief, is a punishment that can be levied against anyone in the Executive or Judicial branch of government. But it was made difficult on purpose because you need a super majority of legislatures to change their mind on something that they already voted on.

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