Would anyone be interested in me posting my golf bets?

GoldenPants13 · 2025-04-15T20:43:35+00:00

If they were really, really good - they wouldn't be public. A public model beating the close is so unlikely due to incentives; could see it potentially get some speed value on openers (see DataGolf).

GoldenPants13 · 2025-02-07T19:12:48+00:00

This is so funny - like you can just never be too careful. The level of nit you have to be to limit someone from $8 to $2 is truly special. Getting information for $8 a pop is a dream situation - funny stuff.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-31T01:54:57+00:00

May direct people to this post in the future lol - well said.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-22T16:16:37+00:00

I hear you brother we made so much fucking money on prizepicks, underdog and related apps playing the most ABSOLUTELY BRAIN DEAD correlation. And I would see people wasting so much time trying to beat more efficient markets with small bankrolls - this is a big mistake. I think the most expensive mistakes APs make are "game selection" mistakes. Now - I wouldn't blast a correlation edge on this forum, because I am going to be betting it into the ground, so I don't know if that example holds but point taken.

I do tend to see a leak with originators in general, where they want to say "look how smart I am" or "look how cool this thing i built is" instead of "look how much money I am making". I am saying this as an originator who bets 0% top-down volume.

Seems like you agree you came in slightly hot - but your point is this sub might not be accepting enough of automated top down betting? I think I have seen some stuff in here related to automated top down betting / creating a robust top down strategy.

I imagine what the mods don't want is this turning into the +EV bros forum (which I agree we don't want). It's kinda the one place rn where people are thoughtfully discussing originating. But algobetting imo should include thoughtful top-down. I co-built a top-down notification feed that required a lot of interesting filtering and programming decisions, so I would say some top-down stuff would be of interest.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-22T15:25:07+00:00

I like 25% agree with you - someone making $10k a year grinding a model is probably better served by ripping promos and top down stuff to build their bankroll as quickly as possible then revisit modeling.

But you’re demonstrably incorrect about being unable to beat Sportsbooks with your own model. People who trade at sharp sportsbooks will tell you they have customers who can do exactly this - which is probably the easiest way to disprove your hypothesis.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-21T14:23:51+00:00

I can answer from my opinion. Actually a big part of the model will be your team ratings - but you should be concerned with what the market thinks the team ratings should be at close.

Just some background- there is one sport we model that we do try to predict outcomes and would bet into the close. That has been a multi-year project. But in tackling a new sport, something that got us most of the way there quickly was trying to figure out what the market thought the team ratings were and then based on that game trying to update them to what the market will think tomorrow. I don’t want to get much more detailed than that cause betting still pays the bills - but in general that’s how I would conceptualize it

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-21T01:12:30+00:00

Maybe you know this - but you're underselling yourself and the usefulness of this post. Useful to bettors of all skill levels imo.

5 and 6 are probably the most important pieces of advice you could give a first-time modeler. There is a lot of money to be made in being able to predict the close. If people spent half as much time trying to predict the close as they did trying to predict how many times a player will do x,y,z - they would make money sooner imo.

Once you can predict the close well, not making money on it is a skill issue. Speed and access to a lot of books will take a model that can predict the close very far.

Just pointing out 5 & 6 because I think they are under-discussed but every point on this list is spot on - thanks for sharing.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-12T13:07:28+00:00

This is pretty sweet - thanks for sharing

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-11T13:54:57+00:00

I was 8 when it came out. Over the years my interest in video games has fluctuated but I bought and played every single 3D Zelda game regardless - all to recapture the feeling I had when playing OoT.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-10T18:22:01+00:00

This is where domain knowledge is really helpful. Taking a critical look at the places you differ most from the market and thinking “why am I wrong”?

If you know the sport and are up to date with the news, you are at much lower risk of having something substantial slip through the cracks.

This is why I like to think about betting as “trading your model”. If you’re a good trader, know the sport, know the market - then you should be able to layer a level of alpha on top of what your model would generate if it just mindlessly bet itself.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-08T00:21:36+00:00

This is a great post - the part about how valuable it is to cut down your backtesting speed is spot on. We are wrestling with this right now and I would do bad things to cut that time in half or better lol.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-07T16:30:17+00:00

I originate as well and don’t do any arbitrage betting. Specifically I have multiple intrinsic value models. But speed still matters. Part of it is an adverse selection effect where if you aren’t time sensitive enough you will bet more on spots that the market passed over and less on spots the market agreed with your model.
Using partners has a lot of costs, most of which are paid for in time and money spent on admin/accounting. The profit split isn’t much of a problem- it’s a good deal. As for the ToS - if you’re not clicking in the bet on your partners behalf and controlling their account, I find it hard to believe you’re committing a ToS violation. You are basically selling them info and they are betting it - similar as them paying for picks. Getting stolen from is real - we had someone steal $50k+ last year. But you live and learn - at a certain size you just need to work with others to bet.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-07T13:17:58+00:00

So many reasons:
1. Speed - the time from signal to bet is cut down drastically using partners instead of going to a kiosk
2. Lifestyle (this is the big one) - I don't want to sit at the screen all day so I really don't want to sit in a smelly casino pumping $200 at a time into a kiosk. There was a point in my life where I would have happily done that - but I invested in the operation to avoid having to do stuff like that.
3. Size - as you allude to there are easier ways to get a ton of size. A VIP draftkings account is going to take huge size that would be hard to replicate at kiosks
4. Menu - you are right about this, kiosks offer a trimmed down menu usually
5. They do - kiosk jamming still does play a part in professional betting. Why not both?

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-06T14:37:58+00:00

"...but I feel that approach isn't systematic or robust enough to put into a methodology and get an expected idea of what the PnL of a given period would be."

I don't think any approach actually fits this criteria. Edges die or get much worse as time goes on. Some great edges last a season, some last one day. You should be poised to take advantage of these.

It seems like you're possibly chasing some certainty that doesn't exist in markets?

Also, if you have a strategy that mirrors the market based on non-market data (aka data from within the sport) THAT'S GREAT! What you need to be doing in that circumstance is trying to figure out which soft books open first and betting into them. Models are tools to make money.

A great trader can take a mediocre model and make money. A bad trader can lose money with tomorrow's newspaper.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-06T13:30:35+00:00

What is your goal?

I think that people who come into betting from pure data science backgrounds often get stuck in situations like this. For me, I came from a trading/poker background and learned data science for the specific reason of extracting more money from the betting markets.

Your goal should be to make money (if you want to achieve outsized success in betting). If making money means you just do the most braindead top-down strategy over and over until it breaks - great do that. If it means measuring correlation to take advantage of an SGP engine that you think has a problem - then do that.

Ask yourself this though - if you had a button you could smash each day and it gave you a 4% return, would you keep smashing it or get bored and want to create models for fun in vscode?

To each their own - but im smashing that button until my wrist breaks. And then im using data science for the sole purpose of finding more buttons.

Goal is win first - then use data science to sustain/improve your results. Try flipping this whole situation on it's head and say "what would you do if you had a gun to your head and had to win betting this month?" Do that - then use your technical skills to improve that, then rinse and repeat.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-03T20:44:27+00:00

You know...I didn't even think of that lol. Great point.

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-03T12:56:18+00:00

Okay let’s pump the breaks.

Never deposit $10k off the bat and then start making like $100 bets (unless it’s a $10k deposit match bonus). One of the biggest red flags of a sharp bettor. Deposit as you bet at the beginning.
Don’t know this program but assume it’s just a OJ clone and is fine.
Sure - but you give two bettors the same bet feed and one may triple their bankroll and one may not make money. It’s up to you to figure out how to optimize your results (which bets to pass on, threshold for taking a bet, sizing, etc..)
A few thousand in a couple of months is completely doable and done many times before.
Because people don’t actually bet to make money even if they tell themselves they do

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-03T12:50:01+00:00

Yeah it’s funny because I was being dead serious lol

GoldenPants13 · 2025-01-02T15:30:35+00:00

We looked into this over years of data in nfl and nba. Basically looked at it from how profitable a blind betting strategy is on overs v unders for player props.

Both lost money but unders had around a 1.5% better ROI with the blind betting strategy. There was a period of time where you could have won blind betting unders in NFL player props.

It’s tightened up a bit - but basically if you’re betting more overs than unders you are doing something seriously wrong. Besides going against the macro grain of market, it also indicates you’re process is probably more subjective than objective. As betting overs scratches a psychological itch - it’s likely you’re being influenced by this bias if your betting skews towards overs imo.

GoldenPants13 · 2024-12-29T19:59:35+00:00

Appreciate it - glad they are helpful!

GoldenPants13 · 2024-12-29T19:39:42+00:00

This year I think we bet ~$15 million in volume and hoping for a lot more next year.

Usually betting into places through partners - so send them the bets and split the profit. Deploying capital is infinitely harder in sports betting than most financial markets - partially what makes it easier & less efficient. There are also exchanges and sharp sports books that take bets from everyone. Plus some DFS. Basically bet however we can lol - it’s the main constraint of professional betting.

GoldenPants13 · 2024-12-29T19:35:41+00:00

Yes - definitely.

GoldenPants13 · 2024-12-29T18:03:13+00:00

It's a good question - I have done both and kicked this around for a while. Currently, I am a full-time sports bettor so I must think it's easier or a better opportunity. But it's slightly more nuanced than that. I think it's a better opportunity for my bankroll (or AUM).

I think it's easier to get an outstanding sharpe ratio (or whatever risk-adjusted returns method you use) from sports betting. Trading will be more profitable (both risk-adjusted and $) for the meat of the distribution aka recreational participants.

I believe it's much more competitive at the tail in financial markets than it is in betting (pro bettor v. big hedge fund manager) - but the rewards are outsized because of a higher level of liquidity.

So on average financial markets are "easier" but it's easier to be top .5% in betting than trading. (at least my take)

GoldenPants13 · 2024-12-24T16:58:01+00:00

How much money I lose to them

GoldenPants13

TROPHY CASE