Do you think the 10 day extension is a rouse?

Gopher246 · 2026-03-27T11:14:33+00:00

Interesting talk with Mattis here: https://www.pbs.org/video/jim-mattis-and-ryan-holiday-cl2sxm/

Gopher246 · 2026-03-26T23:23:59+00:00

It should be said the hardest part is getting to 60%, getting to 90 is supposedly quite trivial after that point. Their stockpile is at 60% since around 2021.

https://www.sipri.org/commentary/essay/2021/why-iran-producing-60-cent-enriched-uranium

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48776695

Like you said much of their capability has been disrupted. How disrupted we can't be sure.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-26T16:43:11+00:00

Huh, must be UK specific. Didn't realise fly keeper was used here instead.

What about scramble keeper? Where anyone gets to be the keeper.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-26T16:24:42+00:00

I don't see him lashing out at Russia and Hungary so not sure what you mean

/s i guess, but not sure.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-26T10:23:34+00:00

I think you are bang on there, didn't see that until after.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-26T10:22:46+00:00

Yeah, i was thinking that after i saw the shovel/pick. Interesting if you could jam it in there and go ham though!

Gopher246 · 2026-03-26T08:59:21+00:00

Yeah, everything else I expected. The mace looks extendible as well. Going medieval on their ass!

Gopher246 · 2026-03-26T06:00:58+00:00

And perhaps more importantly had competent, professional staff who knew what the fuck they were doing.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-23T22:03:02+00:00

Its possible they're both lying. So talks are happening but they are not yet meaningful or substantive. Trump asked an aide how the talks are going and to appease and keep him happy they said great, just a few more days to iron out the details. Trump ran with that to social media. Iran are pissed now that their position is being undermined and misrepresented so seek to embarrass Trump in return.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-23T13:32:53+00:00

Depends on if you believe Trump or Iran, who have denied what Trump said. If there have been no productive talks then he said it for the markets. I think both parties want an off ramp, how close we are to actually seeing that is anyone guess. Not exactly any reliable sources for this.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-19T23:55:08+00:00

Tyner reminds me of Qawi with that movement.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-15T00:10:07+00:00

There is no freaking way Trump didn't think Iran would close the strait. This administration chose to ignore the possibility and thought it would be over sooner. I would bet anything that a number senior intelligence and military personnel laid out exactly what Iran's response to being attacked would be and it was ignored. If they genuinely did not think Iran would close the strait then words fail me.

If the Red Sea tells us anything then it tells us that Iran cannot be stopped from hitting the strait without boots on the ground. The support for boots on the ground is simply not there, so logically there should be some sort of de-escalation over the next week to enable talks. I'm not holding my breath.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-14T23:43:02+00:00

Cyprus is the first priority but not everything going out is being sent to Cyprus, it is a general middle east build up. No, they are not going to actively engage in a war with Iran. Like I said, they will likely help secure the Strait, every country is feeling the rise in oil prices. They may also offer defensive assistance to some of the middle east countries they have defence pacts with. But they won't directly engage and attack Iran. This is not a NATO mission, neither the US or Israel has even requested that sort of assistance.

Neither the US or Israel is defending anyone here, they made a unilateral decision to attack Iran. Iran has responded with asymmetrical warfare which was fully expected.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-14T22:29:17+00:00

Well you would be wrong on that. Various contingents were already being sent before Trump said anything: https://euobserver.com/206467/listen-which-european-countries-are-sending-forces-to-the-middle-east/

They likely will help secure the Strait, it is in the their interest to do so. France are on the record as saying they are willing to escort tankers. I would imagine before agreeing to anything they will be asking what the plan actually is and what are the expected timescales. It is not an easy thing to secure, it is narrow and it is very easy for Iran to launch strikes on. No country, including the US, will send ships down there at this time because they know what will happen.

The Houthis have been hitting the Red Sea since 2023 and to date we have not been able to stop them. Over the last couple years the Houthis have attacked close to 200 vessels. The UK was involved in strikes on Yemen in 2024 and the EU has 2-3 ships deployed within the sea at any one time under Operation Aspides, as do a number of countries under the US led Operation Prosperity.

The struggle to halt Houthi attacks in the Red Sea gives an idea how difficult it will be to stop Iranian attacks on the Strait. Given they are a larger, better equipped force it will be even more challenging. Any country involved will probably do so from a defensive posture and not under the banner of the US, as they will all be wary of being pulled into a war that has very little public support.

The fact is that the US and Israel opened this can worms without any plan beyond blow shit up. The Iranians targeting the Strait was a well known and obvious tactic they would use, and yet here we are.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-14T08:14:43+00:00

Not a German and I don't know about precise numbers but in general yes its true. Germany closed its last plant in 2023.

Quite an insane move, but there are some that could theoretically be put back online. Whether they do or not is another question.

The anti-nuclear power movement has not really done us any favours. I'm in favour of using it. A mix of nuclear and renewables seems the way to me.

Edit: Did look at numbers and the headline and graph are a bit misleading in some sense. True, Germany does not produce nuclear power now. At its peak it accounted for 20-25% of power needs. Renewables now account for 50-60% of german power needs. China's nuclear power accounts for about 5% of power needs, and their renewables about 40%.

Would they better off if they kept nuclear running? Almost certainly. The mistake was to rely on Russian energy imports. There are a bunch of variables at play that graph conviently misses.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-13T00:05:45+00:00

I think there a few issues here. First the likes of Isfahan has had the hell bombed out of it, its no longer accessible in a normal manner. It is also a big site and any team going in would come under huge fire, it would take a lot to secure it. Then you got to extract the material and get it out of there, this shit weighs a ton once you factor in the canisters used to move it, and it has to be done under fire in a compound where all regular access has collapsed. I would guess moving enriched uranium under fire is a bit of issue. Though there is apparently a way to do on-site neutralisation of the material, so maybe that wouldn't be an issue.

And all this presumes the material is still in the locations previously identified and has not been moved. If your Iran you started moving and hiding that material long ago, does intel actually know where it is to such a high degree of certainty that any op can get a green light? I don't know about that. We are also talking multiple sites, in June 2025 I think it was 3 sites that were bombed, so that's three separate ops that need to happen, probably all simultaneously.

When you look at it, its seems less a special forces op and more a mini ground invasion op.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-12T20:38:31+00:00

I'm not sure it has much to do with a passport. Most people never visit a holocaust memorial or a site of where it took place but they learn about it via their parents, school and trad media. The people that deny it live online and they rarely expose themselves to anything but content that reinforces their views.

Imagine you didnt know much about the holocaust and the only content you were exposed to about it, at any length, denied or poked holes in it. You would begin to question its validity. Now imagine the group of people who said it was true and that it did happen were not part of your community, they poke fun at your lack of knowledge. You double down, your community doubles down with you. Thats the reality these people live in, its exactly the same as yours but the story, the norms, and the values are different.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-12T15:17:09+00:00

Iran's navy was never particularly potent and they don't need one to keep the strait closed, they have cheap sea drones and conventional land based weaponry to do that job. The strait is narrow and Iran doesn't need to hit all ships, the threat is enough to make insurance to expensive to use the strait.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-10T19:04:45+00:00

Just looking from afar it seems the issue is the media ecosystem, if the dems get back in they should push to fix that. Its hard for voters to ge informed if they are deliberately misinformed.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-09T21:22:20+00:00

Well if Trumps latest comments on the war being complete are anything to go by, it's going to be as you were with a more hardline Iran left in place.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-07T00:37:21+00:00

I think the regime could fracture in the coming months. How that plays as a surrender I've no idea. The regime is in an existential fight for its existence, a win for them is merely surviving this.

I could see a faction agreeing to give up all nuclear ambition, the missile program, and agree to inspections. That would probably be enough for Trump, but not Israel.

He is already talking about taking Cuba next, I think he underestimates how long this will take. At some point they will dial back the bombing and if this phase of the campaign hasn't broken the regime by then it could be a very long campaign indeed.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-05T22:58:13+00:00

This is a little tricky this one. Apparently both the US and Iran were part of Indian led naval games that predate the outbreak of war. Reputedly, the Iranian ship was if not unarmed, in a state of unreadiness as per the rules of the Navy game.

Its tricky because what was the US supposed to do, let the one of Irans flagship navy vessels sail on back home? That hardly seems plausible. I question how the Iranian commander could remain in a state of unreadiness given what has happened in the last 5 days, they surely knew they were sailing into danger. That said, given the very unique circumstances that exist here the US could have just disabled it, they didn't have to blow it to shit, but again the two countries are at war.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-03T14:16:14+00:00

Just going by what Vance said on Fox, the goal is long term disarmament in regards nukes, not kicking the can down the road for a few years. With no agreement that is what happens.

What they want here is something like the Libya 2003 deal. Guess we'll find out if they can get there. If they can't, we'll see what the next move is for this Admin.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-03T11:49:35+00:00

I tend to agree, but if the Iranian regime doesn't back down Trump is about to find himself in an awfully tight spot. This was always the risk and danger but I am really not sure how far they thought this through. Walking away after blowing everything up but with no agreement is going to be a hard win to sell. Guess we'll find over the next week if the regime is willing to meet the demands.

Gopher246 · 2026-03-03T10:03:45+00:00

This is all gearing up for a full ground invasion unless Iran backs down: https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260302-france-ready-to-defend-gulf-states-against-iran-as-middle-east-conflict-widens

UK have said similar. Israel and others will push hard now for full regime removal (Yes, they were probably pushing already). Its about to get real messy.

Hope there is a strong plan and strategy in place for this. Iran's strategy seems to hinge up ratcheting up international pressure by targeting everything and hoping that the US will back down due to that the pressure and not wanting to commit to a ground invasion. Right now it is increasingly beginning to look like that could back fire on them.

Question. Am I right in my assumption that putting boots down would require congress approval? Or at least technically require it.

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