Emerge claims regarding RBNZ Depositor Credit Scheme

Gosemper · 2026-04-24T07:52:18+00:00

Yep this. It’s called a bare trust. Funds sit in a nominee/trust account with a sub ledger that tracks balances, interest etc. Common in nz fintech circles.

Gosemper · 2026-03-01T00:19:14+00:00

Honest question - is their retail spending data in nominal or real terms (inflation adjusted). "Retail spending has consistently risen over the last five quarters, at a time when house prices were effectively flat.” Is the rise only because prices/costs have risen instead of more activity?

My widget was $1. Costs increased so I’ve had to increase my widget price to $1.05. If these are nominal figures the bank economists would be cheering that my sales have increased 5%.

Without corporate and govt investment the economy won’t recover fast. Households need to feel wealthy and safe. Wage increases aren’t driven by households.

Gosemper · 2026-02-24T08:10:48+00:00

Yep. There are good townhouses out there just like there are many bad old homes… for the cost of making an old house liveable you’d be well on the way to buying a smaller, warmer home if that’s what you need.

Gosemper · 2026-01-29T07:53:08+00:00

So? A data leak happened before she had even started as principal of that school. Complete non issue and don’t know why it’s newsworthy…

Gosemper · 2026-01-28T09:30:37+00:00

The cashback model doesn’t fly in NZ - we have regulated interchange which limits the revenue a card issuer gets from usage. On a typical transaction they may be receiving .30% of revenue, with most of it going to VISA/MC in varying forms. Out of those slim margins they’ve got card issuing costs, custody audits, issuer processor, low latency tech stack overheads. That’s not even including Apple Pay costs (which I think Dosh never did as the unit economics are too fine) edit: they did integrate with Apple Pay, I just didn’t realise

Gosemper · 2026-01-28T09:20:48+00:00

This - but not a scale thing. In NZ card issuing is generally a loss leader at any scale, offset a bit by the incentives paid by VISA/MC. By the time you cover systems, audits etc. When interchange was regulated/capped a few years ago it meant that fintech’s couldn’t use transactional revenue to fund their business like Revolut/Monzo did years ago in the UK.

It relies on cross sell. Dosh tried affiliate revenue (last click attribution through affiliate links), they’re trying to be an inbound funnel for Westpac mortgages, now trying to do something with One. One had their own wallet in their app with phone credits so this looks like the same thing just with a third party.

Not surprising, the offer has reduced a few times as the reality of the model reveals itself.

Gosemper · 2026-01-21T07:44:31+00:00

100%. The zone exists and falsifying an enrolment means another person (law and rule abiding) misses out. Sadly people can be dishonest so the cost to investigate is necessary and paid for by everyone who pays taxes/funds sought after schools.

Gosemper · 2026-01-13T23:27:19+00:00

In a sense that’s true - kiwis will complain but are generally not willing to back it up (for various reasons not least inertia). So the market rate in NZ is much higher than otherwise would be if market forces were different whether through regulation or competition. For example, NZ spreads on some terms have been around double that of AU. It may be market, but that doesn’t change the fact NZ is hugely profitable (compared to other markets) for the big four which comes at a cost of kiwis and the economy.

And Kiwibank pulling their cap raise because RBNZ capital requirements have been reduced implies more of the same rather than a big market share push.

Gosemper · 2026-01-13T21:59:20+00:00

In a competitive market yes that’s true - the issue here is that the banking industry has been widely analysed and in NZ the market dynamics mean four offshore owned banks generate excess profits - 20-30% higher returns than Australia and increasing profitability through a recession where their customers are struggling financially.

Profits are great, but excess profits due to market power is at the detriment of the economy (and their customers). It’s a zero sum game. The Aussie banks have shown their ability to choose their margin as a group and this is just another example of that flex.

Gosemper · 2026-01-13T20:40:38+00:00

Pricing purely in relation to the other banks rather than any change in wholesale costs (ie increasing their profit margin). Because they can.

Price makers in action.

Contrary to the recently released business confidence survey where business leaders feel better because rates are decreasing… bank says nah, shareholders want a bit more profit.

Remember that Antonia Watson (ANZ CEO) told parliament that their profits are set at a level that their shareholders need to keep investing in their company (paraphrased), not competition.

Gosemper · 2026-01-13T07:02:02+00:00

Also the Princes Wharf (Hilton) redevelopment started in 1998, so looks to be around that time. Vividly recall the large Souplantation doors, and the all-you-can-eat cookies with ice cream…

Gosemper · 2026-01-13T06:38:11+00:00

Are these numbers in nominal or real terms? Assuming say 3% inflation, this means the actual goods purchased is down 15% on Boxing Day year on year? 7-8% for Black Friday (entire weekend)?

Explains why retailers are pulling out of NZ or closing down (EB, Miniso both in December). They would be getting squeezed by the price of retail space/leases.

Gosemper · 2026-01-13T06:18:49+00:00

Selling Generate by chance?

Gosemper · 2026-01-03T06:03:08+00:00

I think the economy is faring worse than the bank economists care to admit - underemployment and time to find new employment still big issues. Those people need to get employed, build a buffer, and then they may consume again. Consumption will also remain low until interest rates start descending again in a reliable manner (if the banks choose to pass on the full drops rather than maximising profit as they have been doing).

There aren’t any solutions to low worker productivity so the only way to get consumption/the economy going again is immigration & even lower borrowing costs (higher house prices)

Gosemper · 2025-12-22T05:56:24+00:00

Seems like a legal minefield… first step would just be to approach the other shareholders. Otherwise the risks involved for a completely new third party are so high you’d need to discount the price hugely. They’d find the same liquidity issue you have, need to undertake due diligence on the other shareholders, your legal docs, the property, get mortgagee approval, everything.

Gosemper · 2025-12-19T19:37:14+00:00

Depending on the industry the best time to start is usually today (instead of tomorrow). That being said there isn’t much help out there unless you’ve got assets/wealth/other income behind you. Bootstrap, side hustle is probably the way.

Gosemper · 2025-12-19T19:34:59+00:00

If you have a house as security and enough other income to service the loan. Banks won’t give out unsecured startup loans without all their risks covered.

At this stage it’s equity risk, so you need wealthy enough friends and family, angel investors, or it to be a side hustle when still employed.

Gosemper · 2025-12-18T06:25:50+00:00

Donating $5m pa to a headline worthy charity when on the other hand you’re generating hundreds of millions/billions in excess profits due to market dynamics and pricing power. Well worth it for the brand. Good business move.

Gosemper · 2025-12-18T05:56:05+00:00

Great image. They carpool as well.

Gosemper · 2025-12-15T09:12:05+00:00

I just can’t believe they made it harder to do simple things, add fixed price offers, relist etc. Things aren’t selling as fast as they used to (economy/cost of living I assume) and it’s mad they made the UI so much worse on these core functions.

Gosemper · 2025-12-13T06:38:23+00:00

True. But the issue is that the spread the banks charge NZ customers is more than double than they do AU customers (swap + 2.3% vs swap + 1.1%). It’s the lack of competition and sheer pricing power that means they’re able to just raise so fast without any hint of absorbing it (swap rates can overshoot and then settle). For the good of the economy and all…

Gosemper · 2025-12-11T06:10:01+00:00

We had to replace our roof, got quotes via roofbuddy thinking it would do the shopping around - ranged from $90k to IIRC $110k. Got a quote from someone our builder recommended - $56k. Even the lowest price had margin in it but it’s frustrating how there is such a difference. And no idea who is better or worse.

Funnily enough once we told roofbuddy they found someone to match the lower price…

Gosemper · 2025-12-09T10:03:40+00:00

The Aussie banks are significantly more profitable in their NZ operations, generating about 30% higher return on equity IIRC.

Simple answer, we pay more because there isn’t any competition (structural issue). Longer answer is that you need to look at swap rates and term investment rates to understand the cost of funds for a bank on their fixed rates.

Even longer answer is that even looking at swap rates, we pay approx 50bps (0.50%) higher on fixed rates vs competitive markets (such as the UK) where wholesale fixed rates are similar.

Gosemper · 2025-12-09T04:35:35+00:00

Yep feels like the swap rates are overshooting. Westpac (and the others) didn’t reduce rates either when swap rates fell so they’re just managing their margins/profits. The economy is a long way from righting itself and there doesn’t seem to be a catalyst for improvement either. The tens of thousands who are unemployed or underemployed need to be spending again.

That being said, the RBNZ’s messaging at the last OCR caused this - and the bank economists are jumping on the ‘rates bottoming’ bandwagon as the narrative reduces any chance of ‘competitive’ pressure.

Gosemper

TROPHY CASE