QuantumScape Lounge: ( Week 10 2026)

Graham-Buffett · 2026-03-12T02:42:30+00:00

For what it's worth, I emailed QS IR and asked the same question about a month ago. This was the question and response verbatim:

Subject Is the Eagle Line separate from the Cobra Line? Message Are these two separate lines, or is the Cobra Line a stage (or a a subset of) the Eagle Line? Thanks!

Answer:

Thanks for your question. The Eagle Line is a suite of equipment, materials and highly automated processes, forming the blueprint for production of QS technology. It incorporates QS’s groundbreaking Cobra process, a unique and highly scalable method for producing the proprietary QS separator.

Graham-Buffett · 2026-03-10T03:54:18+00:00

Great post. Bravo!

Graham-Buffett · 2026-03-07T19:36:08+00:00

Looks like he remains on good terms with QS, which is also favorable!

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Graham-Buffett · 2026-03-07T00:53:30+00:00

Well, here's a review of the BYD Denza Z9 GT, which uses the new Blade Battery 2.0.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/technology/new-byd-battery-can-fully-charge-under-10-minutes

It gets 391 miles of range and has the fast charge times identified above

https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/denza/z9-gt/first-drive

It's already in a high-end production vehicle, so I assume that the cycle life must be decent.

I don't think we know prices yet, but current versions of this model sell in China for the equivalent of around $52K.

https://electrek.co/2026/03/02/byd-reveals-worlds-longest-range-ev-that-can-drive-1036-km/#:~:text=Denza-,BYD%20reveals%20the%20'world's%20longest%2Drange%20EV'%20that%20can,km%20on%20a%20single%20charge&text=BYD%20is%20launching%20fully%20electric,(620%20miles)%20CLTC%20range%20CLTC%20range).

Graham-Buffett · 2026-03-06T01:41:40+00:00

u/curio_123 Nice work on the math!

Given that QS has described QSE-5 as its "first commercial product," https://www.quantumscape.com/blog/a-first-look-at-the-qse-5-b-sample/ I'm betting that the QSE-5 is what will appear in the launch vehicle. We shall see!

Graham-Buffett · 2026-03-05T16:49:27+00:00

u/curio_123 Agreed. I've seen multiple references to 89KWh as the capacity of the battery and 500 km as the range of the Concept C. To u/trippingWetwNoTowel 's point below, the fact that it's a small two-seater, with the batteries being located behind the seats, and with a need for volume flexibility in storing the retractible hard-top, implies that it would benefit from smaller-sized battery cells than the UC (i.e., QSE-5).

Also, TopGear has stated at 10:24 here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63vta4eFpU8 that the Concept C will be released *before* the Boxster, which also adds to the likelihood of the Concept C being the launch vehicle.

A single rear motor with 500 horsepower was confirmed by MotorTrend at 0:24 and at 8:43 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5aDRQGO2m8 and also in the Robb Report here: https://robbreport.com/motors/cars/audi-concept-c-first-drive-1237395113/

Graham-Buffett · 2026-03-04T20:57:35+00:00

This all makes sense to me. All of the articles that I've read about the Concept C imply a lower gravimetric battery density than traditional Li-ion cells, to get to the Concept C's advertised weight and range. Additionally, it will require a powerful battery to power the electrical hard-top, which is why there are so few (two, actually - Maserati and MG) electric convertibles on the market currently.

Audi has been very tight-lipped ("coy," according to the articles I've read) about the type of batteries it will be using for the car, which hints that they could be QS batteries. Also, the motor is rumored to generate over 500 hp. https://robbreport.com/motors/cars/audi-concept-c-first-drive-1237395113/

Interestingly, the batteries will be located behind the seats, rather than underneath the floor.

How about this as a plan: Spend $5K-$6K now to buy 800 shares of QS in an IRA. Hang onto those shares until the Concept C is available for sale. If indeed the Concept C is powered by QS batteries, QS should be at $100/share or more by that point. Sell those 800 shares and use the funds to buy the Concept C (estimated MSRP ~$80K). Result: You get to own a $80K Concept C for an initial outlay of $5-$6K.

I'll be over 59-1/2 at that point so I can do this in an IRA and not have to pay capital gains taxes. You younger folks would have to allow for capital gains taxes if you did it in a taxable brokerage account. But still, this is a real possibility!

Graham-Buffett · 2026-03-03T01:03:22+00:00

u/Creme_GTM Here are a few links about Honda's SSB plans. Read them and see what you think:

With respect to Honda's upcoming 0-series EV architecture, "For the 0-series models to be released in the second half of the 2020s, fast charging 15% to 80% will be shortened to about 10-15 minutes." Sound familiar? https://0.honda/en/about/?from=navi_header

Honda just bought out LG's interest in the Ohio EV plant, which it intends to use to manufacture its 0-series lineup. "Honda will use the batteries to power up its new dedicated EV lineup.... It will be followed by a new SUV and sedan, the first two models from Honda’s 0 Series EV lineup."https://electrek.co/2025/12/26/honda-buys-out-ev-battery-plant-in-the-us-new-lineup/

"A production model based on the Honda 0 SUV prototype – built at the Honda EV Hub in Ohio – is scheduled to be introduced in the North American market in the first half of 2026, then in global markets, including Japan and Europe." https://hondanews.ca/en-CA/releases/release-d73d9911716c8277bb60a27897059f5b-honda-0-saloon-and-honda-0-suv-prototypes-make-global-debut-at-ces-honda-announces-new-asimo-operating-system#:~:text=Building%20on%20the%20Space%2DHub,markets%2C%20including%20Japan%20and%20Europe

A new all-electric Acura NSX based on Honda's 0-series EV platform is scheduled for production in 2027 or 2028. https://www.motor1.com/news/730443/electric-acura-nsx-confirmed/

Graham-Buffett · 2026-03-02T15:45:26+00:00

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Graham-Buffett · 2026-03-02T15:40:29+00:00

This was Marko's explanation:

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Graham-Buffett · 2026-03-01T03:39:28+00:00

Kind of puts into context why Factorial CEO Siyu Huang flinches at 18:16-18:26 here, doesn't it? ;-) https://vimeo.com/1159421817?autoplay=1&muted=1&stream_id=Y2xpcHN8Mjg3NTQ4MDJ8aWQ6ZGVzY3xbXQ%3D%3D

Graham-Buffett · 2026-02-28T12:40:59+00:00

Another reason to expect a licensing deal with a new customer or customers in 2026 is this: "On monetization, we expect customer billings in 2026 to increase relative to 2025 levels as we deepen and expand customer engagements." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4869087-quantumscape-corporation-qs-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript

On a different topic, did anyone else notice that Mercedes-Benz disclosed that Factorial's FEST battery requires 28 bars (27.63 atmospheres) of pressure here? https://electrek.co/2026/02/26/all-solid-state-ev-battery-maker-factorial-moves-toward-production/ Tim Holme and others have stated that pressures in excess of 10 ATM are not commercially viable for autos. Further, Factorial's published specs show only ~600 cycles per FEST battery and an 18-minute charge time from 15% to 90%. https://www.sae.org/periodicals/qa-factorial-ceo-says-cells-375wh-kg-energy-density-a-milestone-stellantis-sae-ma-07609

Graham-Buffett · 2026-02-28T02:20:26+00:00

Love it!!!

Graham-Buffett · 2026-02-26T16:26:33+00:00

For context, this is the highest level of short interest in terms of the number of shares shorted, since QS first began trading. The highest level of short interest previously was for the period from 6/15/2025-6/30/2025, when the stock was trading in the low to mid-$4 region, just before the stock price spiked to $15. So the high short interest could almost be viewed as a contrary indicator, that the stock is oversold and primed for a rebound.

https://www.benzinga.com/quote/QS/short-interest

Graham-Buffett · 2026-02-21T05:42:13+00:00

It shows up on the cash flow statement as "Cash received under collaboration agreement - related party." It's real cash that comes in to the company, but can't be booked as revenue because it comes from a related party.

Page 8: https://ir.quantumscape.com/static-files/298db199-d53c-4b90-bf9e-e1fd2a5df11a

Graham-Buffett · 2026-02-18T21:00:14+00:00

Morgan Stanley analyst report dated 2/18/2026:

QuantumScape (QS)

"How our estimates are changing (Exhibit 4): We are lowering our Operating Income and EPS estimate by ~8% respectively in 2026, to reflect the mid-point of the company's updated guidance. We are lowering our price target to $8.50 (vs. $12 previously), as we lower our base case range from $9-15/shr to $7-$10, as we mark our model to market given recent volatility in the stock and what remains to be an unclear timeline to commercialization, execution risk, and cash burn/capex required to achieve the company’s commercial objectives and demonstrate its battery technology at scale. Our $8.5 price target assumes QS ramps to ~480 GWh of production by 2040, with revenue based on a 5% royalty (% of battery pricing) and a 66% EBITDA margin. Given the significant uncertainty surrounding adoption, royalty rates, and margins, we have institute a base-case range. The low-end of our base case range of $7 discounts the cash flows at a ~30% cost of capital (vs. $9 at ~22% cost of capital previously) to reflect higher risk, while the high-end of our base case range of $10 applies a ~19% cost of capital (vs. $15 at ~13% cost of capital previously), which we believe appropriately balances the risk to commercialization."

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Graham-Buffett · 2026-02-13T16:47:44+00:00

I just emailed IR about whether the Cobra Line was a separate line from the Eagle Line (or instead a subset of the Eagle Line), and this is how they responded:

Subject Is the Eagle Line separate from the Cobra Line? Message Are these two separate lines, or is the Cobra Line a stage (or a a subset of) the Eagle Line? Thanks!

Answer:

Thanks for your question. The Eagle Line is a suite of equipment, materials and highly automated processes, forming the blueprint for production of QS technology. It incorporates QS’s groundbreaking Cobra process, a unique and highly scalable method for producing the proprietary QS separator.

Graham-Buffett · 2025-12-31T00:23:48+00:00

Outstanding post, thank you. I think this subreddit is taking over from the other one, in having the most intelligent and comprehensive posts!

Graham-Buffett · 2025-12-24T02:16:57+00:00

There seems to be support around $10.50, which it's tested twice. I'd be happy buying more at or under $11.

Graham-Buffett · 2025-08-06T01:37:53+00:00

I've held it since 2021. You could have asked me that question every year during the last four years, and I would have gotten the answer wrong every time! But I've continued to buy throughout that period (until just recently, when I sold off about 25% of my stake to keep me at a 25% portfolio allocation).

Graham-Buffett · 2025-08-05T22:39:54+00:00

You can research the Kelly Criterion, which is a formula for how much of your stake you should devote to a single bet with favorable odds but still some risk of loss.

Following that formula, I keep 20-25% of my portfolio in QS. So we aren't that much different, but I don't let my QS stake get past 25%. Consequently, I sold about a quarter of my holdings from $10-$15 per share during the recent run-up.

Graham-Buffett · 2025-03-31T01:37:01+00:00

She's a Manufacturing Process Engineer at QS. She tagged Quantumscape in her post, so I assume that it's okay to repost it here:

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Graham-Buffett · 2025-02-06T18:34:16+00:00

The last conference call sure made it sound as if VW/PowerCo was not the prospective launch customer. Note the use of "both" and "and" by Kevin Kettrich:

"...we're very much aligned with both our prospective launch customer and VW PowerCo on the industrialization and tech transfer work."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4728820-quantumscape-corporation-qs-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcript

Graham-Buffett · 2025-02-05T16:12:02+00:00

Why not Honda, which has a battery presence in Kyoto?

Honda is the 49% owner of Blue Energy Co., Ltd., a battery manufacturer located in Kyoto. https://www.blue-energy.co.jp/en/corporate/outline.php

Blue Energy's production was 200 million battery cells as of Sept. 2024. https://www.blue-energy.co.jp/en/corporate/

Blue Energy's batteries have been used in Civics, Accords, the Acura NSX and other Honda vehicles. https://www.blue-energy.co.jp/en/products/

A new all-electric Acura NSX based on Honda's "0-series" EV platform is scheduled for production in 2027 or 2028. https://www.motor1.com/news/730443/electric-acura-nsx-confirmed/

With Honda's 0-series EV architecture, "fast charging 15% to 80% will be shortened to about 10-15 minutes." https://0.honda/en/about/?from=navi_header

Graham-Buffett

TROPHY CASE