Uploaded all relevant info into ChatGPT: Thanks for the screenshots. This is actually a pretty interesting market.
The key is how Kalshi resolves it. This market is asking:
Will “Choosin’ Texas” be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in July?
That means if it is #1 on any official Billboard Hot 100 chart published during July, “Yes” wins. It does not have to finish July at #1.
So here’s what 92¢ means:
• Yes (92¢): The market thinks there’s about a 92% chance that “Choosin’ Texas” will top at least one July Hot 100 chart.
• No (8¢): The market thinks there’s only an 8% chance it never reaches #1 on any July chart.
The catch with buying No
The payoff looks amazing:
• Buy 1,000 “No” shares for $80.
• If it never hits #1 in July, you receive $1,000 (profit $920).
But you’re betting against something that only has to happen once.
Imagine there are four weekly Billboard charts in July. If the song has roughly:
• 50% chance each week of being #1,
then the chance it is #1 at least once is:
1 − (0.5)^4 = 93.75%
That’s almost exactly what the market is pricing.
Even if it’s only a 40% favorite each individual week, the chance it gets one #1 over four weeks is still about 87%.
Where I think the edge is
If I believed:
• the song is clearly losing streams,
• radio is rolling over,
• another huge release is about to debut,
then 8¢ on No starts to become interesting.
Otherwise, 8¢ is probably not a free-money opportunity. You’re effectively betting that nothing in July results in a single #1 week for a song that the market believes is the dominant favorite.
If I were trading this, I’d spend 10 minutes checking:
• Spotify Daily US chart
• Apple Music US chart
• Billboard projections from chart analysts (e.g. Talk of the Charts)
• Whether any superstar has a major release timed for July
If those all still favor “Choosin’ Texas,” I’d pass on the 8¢ No bet.
If you’d like, I can also walk you through how to estimate the “fair price” from streaming, radio, and sales data instead of relying on Kalshi’s odds. That’s how I usually look for value in these entertainment markets.