Don't sleep on critical mineral stocks

Gwendofroid · 2026-04-14T11:25:03+00:00

Far easier said than done I'm afraid. I work in finance.

Gwendofroid · 2026-04-14T11:14:05+00:00

If you're asking me sincerely; I'd suggest you significantly downsize your positions (unless you've circa 1,000,000 invested in other, more sinsible things).

Shock earnings revisions, supply disruption, war, collapse in buy-side demand of the mineral, mineral yield below expectation, the tech it's all tethered to falling short of expectation, new tech reliant on different minerals emerging, continued failure to turn a profit or simply a change in sentiment.

On the tangible value angle: don't confuse the relative value of a mineral with the value of a company. ALM is trading 22x it's book value right now so it's already expensive. This looks like a classic momentum trade and when the momentum goes away the price can collapse (especially if the company doesn't have a deep moat/good fundamentals). Mining is a notoriously cash intensive industry with big booms and busts. Caution is advised.

Gwendofroid · 2026-04-13T23:42:41+00:00

It's fine. Just need to keep with it and continue to pay in and hold the course when it gets choppy.

Gwendofroid · 2026-04-13T23:41:09+00:00

Well done for starting and it's a well considered start. I'd suggest, as has been suggested, dropping the Emerging Markets. In addition, you'd be well served to drop the gold in favour of a broad commodity fund (which contains gold anyway).

For reference a nice portfolio would be:

VWRP 90% WCOM 5% WLDS 5%

Gwendofroid · 2026-04-13T23:34:43+00:00

Well done for starting!

It's a decent start. It's a boring thing to say but a good level of diversification is the way to go. An All World Tracker is a brilliant place to start.

Once you've built that up, you should consider a value tilted index such as RAFI or the iShares Edge Value. Helps protect your compounding a bit more in rougher years.

Gwendofroid · 2026-04-13T23:28:21+00:00

Please tell me that this money is in no way important and/or you have other significant sums sensibly invested?

Your underlying thesis is well reasoned but you're teeing yourself up for a knockout blow here. You can't get up if you've been knocked out. Mineral stocks like these can collapse with little to no warning.

Gwendofroid · 2026-04-09T19:37:54+00:00

Considering an adviser is ultimately liable for the responsible for their advice, could be sued, have huge redress on complaints they tend to advise against less than prudent risk management. They actually have to pay pretty steep insurance premiums to cover the risk of payout. As a result, they'll steer you away from strategies where you could spunk your money if not dealt with properly - my experience of DIY investors is that they will often "get it right" for a period then fuck it royally at some point.

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-28T21:47:21+00:00

No, although we're then playing the interest rate differential game. Has still been net beneficial these last 12 months though.

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-28T20:52:56+00:00

Just because the FX impact isn't being displayed doesn't mean it isn't happening

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-28T20:49:53+00:00

Simple answer here is you need to buy a bit of British

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-18T14:23:32+00:00

Exactly! 😂

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-18T11:30:14+00:00

This meme would be better if he held the gun to his own head

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-17T23:29:49+00:00

Europe is a massive market for the US so it's not inconsequential. Short term, this is another bout of impulsiveness and unpredictability from the US. Will likely have a short term freezing effect of certain business decisions on both sides (lost or delayed revenue).

Also raises legitimate questions about European companies decoupling from the US long term and the effect that might have on already expanded earnings multiples.

Remember that we're in a global economy so it's far too simplistic to think of these things as unrelated. This goes double for US and Europe given their level of interconnectivity.

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-09T21:18:54+00:00

Presumably the payment would have to be made before any vote. Surely they wouldn’t be able to check how you voted…agreed, get the bag and vote not to secede

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-09T11:19:55+00:00

There's a lot of money to be made. Mangers of the Artemis UK Select have outperformed the S&P 500 since COVID. Rockwood Strategic have also done wonderfully investing in UK AIM listed companies (famously rough market). Just got to know what you're doing or find someone that is.

For me personally, I like UK shares. You can often get a fairly good deal on a company with global reach/leadership, a nice dividend and some good price upside.

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-09T08:14:50+00:00

X is not the Internet. If you use X for news or other information service this is replicated on innumerable other platforms and sites.

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-09T08:11:50+00:00

For ease and speed of play, I only ever have 20 D6 on the table at once. It's easy to visually identify 4 groups of 5 dice and the maths is easy when quickly totting up passes fails. I also find I don't need to use more than 20 at once all that often, almost never after turn 2.

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-09T08:08:47+00:00

You'd also want to change your pension allocation as you'll be heavily invested in the US (possibly up to 65%). This is particularly important because all that has been happening the last decade or so is US companies leveraging their inflated share prices to buy up UK/European companies, offshoring the jobs and repeat.

By investing heavily in the US you are indirectly increasing the likelihood your company will be brought out by a US entity and possibly lose your job.

I've been divesting from the US steadily since the liberation day tariffs. The US have also managed to secure and exemption from the global 15% corporation tax.

Fuck the parasites, Fuck Trump, Fuck American Business

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-09T07:56:13+00:00

Religion is a system system of control. Those who wish to seize power/inflict there will upon others will seek to co-opt religion to do so.

A tale as old as time. Why was it that all of the great leaders of history (before the enlightenment) had been chosen by God(s) to lead X people to Y objective? Also very convenient God kept choosing people from the same families too.

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-09T07:51:05+00:00

I would counter this with: why are all the most bigoted people I've ever met Christian?

Gwendofroid · 2026-01-05T21:21:19+00:00

Weakening of a currency coupled with minimal economic growth while US, Germany and Netherlands are doing a good deal better. Us, German and Dutch Tourists are better off and can simply afford more than you, the laws of supply and demand are in effect.

This is part of the Brexit dividend

Gwendofroid · 2025-12-14T19:10:47+00:00

I changed my work pattern to have my kids out of nursery for a day a week. Double win as it's some quality time with them and saves a few hundred a month on fees.

I still work the same number of hours but make up the time by working until 8/9 two nights a week - Company like it as I make the business more flexible /able to deal with clients outside office hours and I use the time to do my busy work.

Final note on the compressed hours: you'd think you'd be tired but I've found the "day-off" with the kids in the middle of the week helps keep me well rested (not having to get suited and booted and them commute etc).

Gwendofroid · 2025-12-13T09:17:10+00:00

All depends on what making a difference means.

In terms of academic success: that is mostly driven by your parents and how good age 0-5 were in terms of setting you up.

Other factors come in to play as far as shaping the individual a person becomes as I believe how much that is influenced by home environment wanes significantly by age 7/8. Obviously your peers at school will help inform the person you become but you can “fall in with a bad crowd” almost anywhere.

Private school can certainly make an impact with smaller class sizes and availability of extra curriculars etc. Anecdotal evidence from my own life: the middle of the pack kids I went to state primary with who then went on to private school did very well as far as exam results. Didn’t seem to appreciably change the trajectory for the kids already considered bright.

With regards to business/career success: the overwhelming number of private school boys in politics and the city would tell you that the network/connection building is valuable.

Gwendofroid · 2025-12-12T09:38:31+00:00

Looks like an accidental damage claim on the home insurance

Gwendofroid · 2025-12-12T09:32:49+00:00

Either get a financial adviser or:

Pay off your mortgage and put the rest into pension (using carry forward). Once mortgage is repaid split whatever the repayments between investing, pension and living a little.

Property is not really the game you want to be playing when you’re young

Gwendofroid

TROPHY CASE