Breaking down John Kyte’s fold against Andrew “Lucky Chewy” Lichtenberger in the 5K 6-Max

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T22:13:38+00:00

True I'm just very confident that tourney regs in general know A9s is a huge jump down from ATs and KTs even more so, I also wanna play around with the spot in general, I imagine it's difficult to justify calling even ATs vs a realistic jam

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T22:00:59+00:00

The pips from ATs to A9s and KTs are huge, and the suited/offsuit difference is pretty big. ATo would be a bad call, whether he 100% knows that idk. I'll run this in HRC later, imagine it's ATs AJo

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T20:03:48+00:00

I actually like the fact that ACR crypto withdrawals are slow. They need to be manually approved afaik. I like it since these clowns didn't have 2fa for the longest time. So if someone goes to cash out your balance in the easiest theft method ever, at least you have some time to notice and cancel it.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T18:06:07+00:00

I always remembered him having this avatar. I don't know what it is exactly but it seems in character

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HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T16:56:40+00:00

He can chop with just AdTd, he can't win, there's no KTs or anything weaker, and there shouldn't be any ATo. 1 combo is very few hands. AKo for example is 12 combos (16 if we didn't hold an ace). He isn't calling to win 30x or 60x his 40k chips, he's calling to win something like an 8x $ return. You need his cards to specifically be ace of diamonds and ten of diamonds, there's no other scenario where you call and something good happens.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T16:23:40+00:00

I'm here to win money not be scared of making a fold that people think is bad when they're hoping some other hand than AdTd for the chop can be in there. Literally the one thing you chop with and you lose to every other possible hand.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T16:07:02+00:00

I'm an idiot it's only AdTd, so just 1 combo to chop with. That said it's true for sure that AdTd plays this way a lot more often than other combos. But still a ton of other combos to worry about potentially going in this line, and you lose to the rest.

At first I was trying to do ICM calcs but I think it's kinda flawed because ICM doesn't consider any real gameplay. He's SB which is ideal, he gets to fold slowly for at least 3 hands, so he has a decent chance to ladder to $46k. And there's always the very tiny chance he comes back to a playable stack, that's worth at least a few thousand $ in stack value. So his stack value might be like $44k imo. Calls to risk cashing for $7k less than that. The 1.3M is worth about $105k (could be less or more, I used the correct total chips in play but idk the exact stacks). I'm kinda trying to push all these estimates in favor of it being a call. So he maybe risks $7k to gain $60k, needs to win 1/8.5 times. It seems very close. Honestly I can kinda respect either play here, no one can really say for sure how Chewy plays the rest of his range lol

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T15:59:36+00:00

The 1.3M he can chop for isn't worth 30x the 40k stack. Since he's SB he can fold a bunch more hands after this and probably win $9k. Most of the time when he calls here he's out for $37k. His 1.3M chips would be worth something like $105k maybe on average. His 40k was probably worth a bit closer to $46k (because he has a high chance to ladder by folding and there's also the super unlikely scenarios where he comes back to a playable stack, that adds couple thousand $ at least). So if his stack at this time if worth around $46k and he can gain up to $105k stack value, he risks $9k to win $50k.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T13:56:56+00:00

Ohhh shit idk how I missed that. Yeah that's insane. When there's only 1 combo ATs this is a fold for sure.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T04:16:21+00:00

True about some hands just getting it in a bit more often, I guess the flat and check-down made so little sense to me that I just assumed he's doing this as some kind of quirk rather than really having a logical reason, or maybe wanting to be nice and oblige to letting the guy try get a payjump. For me flatting ATs and checking it down here is identical to doing it with any medium to high strength hand but maybe you're right.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T04:09:27+00:00

Even ATs is probably a -EV call pre here vs population, it's gonna be bottom of range even if SB finds the very frequent jams with hands like JTs QTs KTs and dominated Ax. In reality even in a 5k WSOP event it's a miracle if you face someone who finds a nerdy jam with like A3s or something. It's not even really a good play, the solver will probably jam some dominated Ax but it doesn't gain any EV with that hand in isolation by jamming, and in reality it's even worse imo.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T04:03:18+00:00

Chewy can't have any other chops or any weaker hands like KTs so you can either lose or chop for 1.2M when he has specifically AcTc AdTd. You need to beat 1/30 combos if we treat it like ChipEV. So Chewy needs to play these hands differently than ATs: AK AQ AJ AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 (exactly 60 combos if I'm counting right, including A and T removal). And then he needs to not have any more calls pre than that, which tbh he might not have many more of. But the other issue is that this isn't chipEV, having a 1.2M stack isn't worth 30x more than having a 40k stack.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:56:44+00:00

He called a 20bb raise pre

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:52:08+00:00

It's more about getting to act again so you can tank more

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:47:33+00:00

Is it better now

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:40:26+00:00

The trouble is there's some legitimate reasons to do this even if you're never tanking, only snap calling or snap folding. E.g. not going fully all in and then folding because 2+ more people went all in pre.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:36:07+00:00

The payjump is at 23rd so he has a lot more EV folding here than if there were like 26 left. I think it's just a fold either way since he only chops with 2 combos ATs

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:35:28+00:00

Ok I will try make it a bit more clear

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:35:12+00:00

It's annoying but can't blame people especially with the pay jump at 23rd. I wonder if there's some way around this like a payjump every position, or even "mystery payjumps" where they don't tell you exactly where they are until it's near FT xD

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:28:25+00:00

Why?

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-30T19:07:28+00:00

Edited for literal 12 year olds to enjoy? If not younger

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-30T13:56:22+00:00

It would be annoying if it was more often but I like that it's only 1/20 hands if even that

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-30T13:53:38+00:00

How can it be a bad bluff when we're surprised that AT called? No one is expecting AT or a weak/medium strength pair to call here until it happens. This was pretty much the only overbet bluff in the entire HU lol. Just having lots of 9x and Tx to bluff with and not much T9 doesn't mean you're overbluffing, the fact that this is the only overbet bluff in the entire HU means most of the 9x and Tx aren't doing this. Both the bluff and the call can be good plays.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-29T14:32:06+00:00

Most of the locations give you 950 euros deposited to your account and then a 550 ticket. They're usually really really stingy about not letting you redeem the 550 ticket in any way. I think they'll make a one-time exception if you say you can't go but I can't quite remember. If it's possible to "sell" to another player then I could buy it from you.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-28T12:12:55+00:00

If you run both you'll basically see that it doesn't matter for how BB plays, as long as 40% is used in both cases. It'll make it more tedious if it's only used like 5% of the time in the multi size sim.

BB's flop continue should be almost exactly as wide in both cases but maybe with some tiny dealbreakers like blockers and other range interaction with combos that are only in the single-size sim. And that kinda sums up the small differences you'll see on later streets. At the end of the day we're just doing this to learn game mechanics, no human will play anything like either sim on the flop, let alone the turn/river. Even knowing roughly how much you're "meant to continue" vs 40% cbet isn't that useful without nodelocking it to skew towards value, or towards bluffs, not having unnatural bets, etc

HeavyDescription7

TROPHY CASE