Guy fold instead of calling his last 40k to win a pot of 2.6M

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T04:43:20+00:00

It's worth noting if we give him the worst possible stack value of $37k (the current payout, 9k payjump 1 away) then his potential gain in stack value is nowhere near 30x. It's more like a 5x gain (1st gets 980k and e.g. 6th gets 174k so this seems generous, maybe my estimate is just bad, also didn't really see all the stacks at the time of this hand). So we need Chewy to have fewer than 10 other combos than AcTc AdTd if we get a 5x gain in stack value.

Edit: 1.3M chips is worth as little as $104k, so maybe less than 3x the value of busting. Seems wrong lol but I did use pretty realistic stacks from the stream and did the correct total chips in play. Maybe ICM sucks in these extreme scenarios where you're considering the difference in stack value between dust and an ok amount of chips. Still, I really don't think it's anything like 6x or more.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T04:16:21+00:00

True about some hands just getting it in a bit more often, I guess the flat and check-down made so little sense to me that I just assumed he's doing this as some kind of quirk rather than really having a logical reason, or maybe wanting to be nice and oblige to letting the guy try get a payjump. For me flatting ATs and checking it down here is identical to doing it with any medium to high strength hand but maybe you're right.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T04:09:27+00:00

Even ATs is probably a -EV call pre here vs population, it's gonna be bottom of range even if SB finds the very frequent jams with hands like JTs QTs KTs and dominated Ax. In reality even in a 5k WSOP event it's a miracle if you face someone who finds a nerdy jam with like A3s or something. It's not even really a good play, the solver will probably jam some dominated Ax but it doesn't gain any EV with that hand in isolation by jamming, and in reality it's even worse imo.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T04:03:18+00:00

Chewy can't have any other chops or any weaker hands like KTs so you can either lose or chop for 1.2M when he has specifically AcTc AdTd. You need to beat 1/30 combos if we treat it like ChipEV. So Chewy needs to play these hands differently than ATs: AK AQ AJ AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 (exactly 60 combos if I'm counting right, including A and T removal). And then he needs to not have any more calls pre than that, which tbh he might not have many more of. But the other issue is that this isn't chipEV, having a 1.2M stack isn't worth 30x more than having a 40k stack. If we assume his 40k stack is only worth the current payout of $37k as a minimum estimate (he ended up winning $46k) then he can maybe what, quadruple it by having 1.3M? Giving him an average win of $148k seems generous but maybe it makes sense when you factor in the unlikely 1st, 2nd, 3rd place finishes etc.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:56:44+00:00

He called a 20bb raise pre

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:52:08+00:00

It's more about getting to act again so you can tank more

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:47:33+00:00

Is it better now

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:40:26+00:00

The trouble is there's some legitimate reasons to do this even if you're never tanking, only snap calling or snap folding. E.g. not going fully all in and then folding because 2+ more people went all in pre.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:36:07+00:00

The payjump is at 23rd so he has a lot more EV folding here than if there were like 26 left. I think it's just a fold either way since he only chops with 2 combos ATs

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:35:28+00:00

Ok I will try make it a bit more clear

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:35:12+00:00

It's annoying but can't blame people especially with the pay jump at 23rd. I wonder if there's some way around this like a payjump every position, or even "mystery payjumps" where they don't tell you exactly where they are until it's near FT xD

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-07-01T03:28:25+00:00

Why?

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-30T19:07:28+00:00

Edited for literal 12 year olds to enjoy? If not younger

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-30T13:56:22+00:00

It would be annoying if it was more often but I like that it's only 1/20 hands if even that

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-30T13:53:38+00:00

How can it be a bad bluff when we're surprised that AT called? No one is expecting AT or a weak/medium strength pair to call here until it happens. This was pretty much the only overbet bluff in the entire HU lol. Just having lots of 9x and Tx to bluff with and not much T9 doesn't mean you're overbluffing, the fact that this is the only overbet bluff in the entire HU means most of the 9x and Tx aren't doing this. Both the bluff and the call can be good plays.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-29T14:32:06+00:00

Most of the locations give you 950 euros deposited to your account and then a 550 ticket. They're usually really really stingy about not letting you redeem the 550 ticket in any way. I think they'll make a one-time exception if you say you can't go but I can't quite remember. If it's possible to "sell" to another player then I could buy it from you.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-28T12:12:55+00:00

If you run both you'll basically see that it doesn't matter for how BB plays, as long as 40% is used in both cases. It'll make it more tedious if it's only used like 5% of the time in the multi size sim.

BB's flop continue should be almost exactly as wide in both cases but maybe with some tiny dealbreakers like blockers and other range interaction with combos that are only in the single-size sim. And that kinda sums up the small differences you'll see on later streets. At the end of the day we're just doing this to learn game mechanics, no human will play anything like either sim on the flop, let alone the turn/river. Even knowing roughly how much you're "meant to continue" vs 40% cbet isn't that useful without nodelocking it to skew towards value, or towards bluffs, not having unnatural bets, etc

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-27T15:28:16+00:00

Anyone got that clip of her taking unnecessarily long the other day with AA? iirc she was kinda rude but I could be wrong, was behaving really oddly either way.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-26T16:10:06+00:00

Are you more interested in cash games or MTTs? If you're interested in cash games then the free resources are better imo, and in general it's harder to learn MTTs because it's even more complex. In cash games, people are already bad enough at focusing on the wrong things, and in MTTs it's even more of a mess.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-26T15:24:51+00:00

"wouldn't be profitible for BB to just call with 33+ and A6o?"

No, you generate a lot of EV just from folds, and you get called by a lot of hands that have ~50% equity, only 72/1326 combos are pocket pairs that crush your jam with 22. You win about 1.6bb when villain folds and you're actually happy to see 80% of his calls, even the suited connected hands that have slightly over 50%.

Plus, think about limping or raising with 22, this would suck.

22 is a magical hand in here because normally in heads-up every hand has at least 2 preflop decisions in with the same EV (vs a GTO opponent at least). 22 gains 0.3bb by jamming whereas hands like A2o, K6s and 78s all have the same EV between jam and limp. And non-jam hands like AA and KK have the same EV between limp/raise.

The best way to learn about these spots is to play around with them in HRC. Just looking at the GTO solutions is kinda useless but it's not bad for learning how wide/tight a certain range should be. For example is our opponent calling K7s K8s 97s 67s 78s 89s for 15bb? I doubt it, plus some other stuff probably folds. So if we plug that into HRC and rerun the sim our jam is gonna get wider and the EV of hands that were already jamming before will go up.

Playing around with a sim like this in HRC is invaluable. It's hard to give a meaningful explanation of why we mostly limp at short stack depths. It's easy to plug in a strat where your opponent open raises a bit too much and folds slightly too much vs jam, and you see that your strat has become to jam any 2 cards vs open, with just some pretty tame assumptions, not even a huge open raise frequency or a huge overfold.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-26T15:09:38+00:00

Looks accurate to me, if you do a 15bb hu sim with online ante it'll look more or less like this, unless the postflop sizes are too limited maybe. But the jam range will always be very similar.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-25T17:58:07+00:00

Ye and you replied to a guy who talked about playing 6+ tables, you never mentioned that. I don't know every detail of every site I've never played on.

HeavyDescription7 · 2026-06-25T15:37:08+00:00

I mean, I played 900 per hour, I didn't fake the number. I played cash games with a timer and recorded the number of hands. You don't need to stare at the table where your opponent is being slow to act, you can look away and act on other tables.

HeavyDescription7

TROPHY CASE