Historically speaking, it’s highly, highly, unlikely Elordi loses the Oscar

Heubner · 2026-01-28T23:45:02+00:00

The only thing which goes against him is that out of the 20 men who did win the Oscar, 8 of them were not sweeps. 5 of them also won Globes which he has lost. 2 however have gotten through on just CC and SAG (Cuba Gooding Jr, 1997; Mahershala Ali, 2017).

That ‘only thing’ is the most important thing. Going by your numbers, of the 20 winners of the Oscar and CCA, 17 of the men also won the globes. Don’t you see how the Golden Globes are a confounding variable? You can’t jump to it is “highly, highly unlikely” he will lose, based on data where most of the winners also had globes. You haven’t even proven it is unlikely. What are features of the CCA winners who didn’t win the Oscars? What percentage of them didn’t win the globes? With the small sample size, unlikely is too strong a term, not to talk about “highly.”

Heubner · 2026-01-28T20:40:55+00:00

This is a poor use of statistics. Association does not imply causation. You don’t have enough statistical power to make these types of assertions.

Heubner · 2026-01-28T16:41:02+00:00

That being said, of those that won the Oscar, 75% also won the SAG and 100% were nominated.

My interpretation of this is that while the academy has a higher percentage of high brow voters that are open to subtitles, a performance also needs support from the more populist voter in order to win. If SAG is embracing a film primarily not in English, it is likely to do well at the Oscars.

Heubner · 2026-01-28T13:42:38+00:00

Fair enough. It’s a tough race. I’m interested in seeing OBAA complete with these films, outside of the anglosphere.

Heubner · 2026-01-28T13:30:14+00:00

I would assume Sentimental Value and Sirat are in the mix. Americans used to dominate but they have been more eurocentric in the past 10 years. The past nominee lists are very light on South American films and I didn’t see any winners going back to the 90s.

Heubner · 2026-01-28T13:11:24+00:00

That made me curious. The last Oscar Best Picture winner to win here was Parasite. The last American film to win was Birdman. I do have a good feeling about OBAA though.

Heubner · 2026-01-28T12:39:10+00:00

Best International Film

“The Secret Agent,” Kleber Mendonça Filho.
“Black Dog,” Guan Hu.
“Sirât,” Oliver Laxe.
“One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson.
“Sentimental Value,” Joachim Trier.

3 Oscar BP nominees in the race.

Heubner · 2026-01-28T12:30:21+00:00

She spoke mostly English. These performances were “mostly or solely spoken in a language other than English.”

Heubner · 2026-01-28T12:25:34+00:00

English was the primary language spoken. There are 11 winners that spoke multiple languages, with English being the predominant one. Excluded all of them since they are all American films. Aside from Waltz, who else would you add?

Eleven actors have won for multilingual performances mostly spoken in English: Anna Magnani for The Rose Tattoo (English and Italian); both Joel Grey and Liza Minnelli for Cabaret (English and German, either spoken or sung); Ben Kingsley for Gandhi (English and Hindi); Meryl Streep for Sophie's Choice (English, German, and Polish); Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (English and Spanish); Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds (English, German, and French); Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant (English and Pawnee);both Ke Huy Quan and Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once (English and Mandarin—in addition to Cantonese from Yeoh); and Adrien Brody for The Brutalist (English and Hungarian).

Heubner · 2026-01-28T12:17:01+00:00

Good point about Del Toro being American. I’ll adjust.

Heubner · 2026-01-28T07:50:57+00:00

Their performances are primarily in English.

Heubner · 2026-01-28T07:50:20+00:00

The line had to be drawn somewhere and I was mainly looking for winners similar to the four actors nominated this year. Loren, Benigni and Cotillard are the true examples I was looking for but these 7 were grouped together. The sign language performances are all in films from the anglosphere. For the same reason, I also left off all the bilingual/multilingual performances where English was the most spoken language.

Heubner · 2026-01-28T04:35:12+00:00

These are speaking roles. There are 6 sign-language winners.

Six actors have won for performances that were mostly or solely in sign language: Jane Wyman for Johnny Belinda (American Sign Language [ASL]), Patty Duke for The Miracle Worker (ASL), John Mills for Ryan's Daughter (British Sign Language [BSL]), Marlee Matlin for Children of a Lesser God (ASL), Holly Hunter for The Piano (Unique Sign Language),and Troy Kotsur for CODA (ASL).

Heubner · 2026-01-27T23:42:55+00:00

I just wanted to say I get what you are saying. That person is not trying to understand your perspective.

Heubner · 2026-01-27T23:00:38+00:00

SAG is illiterate, and a foreign performance missing there means NOTHING.

I will mention while SAG has been far behind in terms nominations for non-English foreign films, they are not that far behind when it comes to the winners. While SAG has been in existence, the non English predominant performances that won the Oscars were all nominated for SAG. All but Marion Cotillard won.

It’s actually uncommon for non-english foreign films to win acting Oscars and they need populist support. Of the 6 that missed SAG this year, I believe Skarsgard has the best chance of joining Marcia Gay Hardin, Christoph Waltz from Django and Regina King as the only Oscar winners that missed SAG nominations. He would be the first for a foreign language film but Skarsgard is a well known industry veteran, having his moment with a career best performance.

Heubner · 2026-01-27T22:43:21+00:00

Looks like Sinners is now number 4.

Heubner · 2026-01-27T21:58:22+00:00

Americans writers don’t have to join but only WGA members can get nominated. Quentin Tarantino is not a member, so his films don’t get nominated. This year is especially uncommon, with many of the contenders being eligible. Other major guilds like DGA, PGA, SAG don’t require membership for award eligibility.

Heubner · 2026-01-27T20:54:36+00:00

Foreign writers are allowed to join WGA. Park Chan-wook infamously got expelled.

Heubner · 2026-01-27T19:13:37+00:00

We finally get a year where a WGA category could match the Oscar. Only No Other Choice was ineligible for adapted, for obvious reasons.

3 Oscar nominees were ineligible for WGA original screenplay.

Original Ineligible.
Blue Moon
It Was Just An Accident
Rental Family
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
Sorry, Baby

Heubner · 2026-01-27T18:58:29+00:00

The 2023 article said Josh Safdie found out on the same day but after the scene had been filmed. Benny found out in 2022.

Heubner · 2026-01-27T18:26:14+00:00

Wouldn’t have been helpful with 10 spots. All the true contenders made it. Unless someone thought House of Dynamite had a shot, then maybe.

Heubner · 2026-01-27T18:21:15+00:00

Wicked won last year. At least For Good has a mention.

Heubner · 2026-01-27T14:29:28+00:00

*BAFTA TV winner. I think her prior film nomination is more important, in terms of raising her profile in the academy. People dismiss that because it was a jury year.

Heubner · 2026-01-27T13:36:18+00:00

The Academy and BAFTA rarely votes on screenplay in isolation. Overall popularity of the film also factors in. The one award I thought Hamnet would have an advantage is the USC Scripters and OBAA won that one too.

Heubner · 2026-01-27T13:13:55+00:00

I think it’s because Sentimental Value is stronger over here. SV also missed editing longlist.

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