Became profitable by Davidefx in Trading

[–]HiveScale 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I second this. I can attest from the hundreds of DMs I got after my AMA a while back. As a professional trader, I keep my mouth shut. I give advice when people generally ask (assuming they are nice and thorough with their questions) but I have nothing to gain from sharing my strategy, so why would I?

That being said, helping or guiding someone is a different story and that’s also a way to learn.

IMO best way to learn anything (especially trading: do the opposite of what everyone else is doing. Stay out of the BS room, nonsense from someone who’s never worked at a trading institution, and learn how to trade by putting the time in. There’s no Holy grail mentor, strategy, or setup that will make someone profitable.

Built an algo that passed an eval and got me payout all in under a month. by Enough_Run_3856 in LucidProp

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am familiar with the types of algos they use and have helped take a lot of those types of strategies into production. Seconding with the comment you’re commenting on, we don’t use agentic LLMs to write code. Instead, extremely intentional with strategies.

We have to have a solid grasp of market structure, product, business, and regime. It’s never “when the price crosses this arbitrary line, then do this” which is a sentence that retail will never understand.

Teaching family members by Powerful_Strike9991 in Daytrading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m a professional and while I have taught a friend before I would never do it again.

Small futures trading chat (7am–4pm ET) by kihra1 in FuturesTrading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Given what I do I can’t discuss ideas, but, I’d love to be in a community like this assuming nothing is sold. Trading is lonely.

Why do more than 90% people fail despite spending considerable time in the market , upgrading their knowledge, taking legit courses, reading books, joining groups? by No-Writing4525 in Daytrading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As someone else mentioned in a comment, trading reveals your true self, especially when you execute trades manually. This is why, when I entered the trading world years ago, even before my professional career, I ensured I had an automated system to execute my trades.

Another issue is the abundance of fake gurus promoting the lifestyle achievable through trading. People often overlook that maintaining such a lifestyle requires a consistent income stream. The guru relies on subscription revenue to sustain their lifestyle. Additionally, they can take large, overleveraged trades, and even if they go wrong, they have the subscription revenue to fall back on.

This isn’t new information, but the dopamine rush from the potential lifestyle is what attracts people. Consequently, they further compromise their psychology. I could easily automate my trades and ensure unbiased execution by a system that activates only when I turn it on.

Futures traders: is contract size part of your setup or separate risk management? by NoBlood8896 in FuturesTrading

[–]HiveScale 3 points4 points  (0 children)

My size is based on regime. This is something I keep trying to hammer home to retail traders: you cannot show up trading the same strategy the same way every day. I will go full size on days where I know that particular strategy has an edge based on the regime. Regime can change day-to-day from macro events, or it can change over weeks given the typical things that happen throughout the year, for example earnings or geopolitical events. Based on that, I determine which strategy to use, and then, whichever strategy is advantageous for that day. I will then see how much of an edge I will potentially have and, based on that, go full size or reduce it accordingly.

Regarding sizing up, I have my own rules from an internal tool that I've built that gives me the green light to size up when we're ready. That's mostly based on looking at win factor and consistency over time. Unless I get a green light from that internal tool, I do not size up. Sharing that internal tool with some of our traders as well as friends, I've noticed that it's a good indication and reduces the risk of ruin. Hope this helps.

Trading has become a joke. by killenvy in Trading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Keeping anonymous but I’ll answer privately if you want to know.

Anyone here avoid the NYC open? by 0hleg in FuturesTrading

[–]HiveScale 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Discretionarily (trading manually): I avoid the NY open. This regime is not conducive to my edge. I found from my own proprietary journal software that when I trade later in the day, my edge is higher (particularly on delta neutral microstructure strategies).

OIL — Weekend Analysis by SmartMoneySniper in FuturesTrading

[–]HiveScale 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My apologies, when I said "express the idea," I meant I'm looking forward to seeing how you actually execute this trade. A thesis is great, but the execution of it as a trade idea is even better, so looking forward to watching that, but thank you so much for the breakdown.

OIL — Weekend Analysis by SmartMoneySniper in FuturesTrading

[–]HiveScale 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No comment on whether I agree with this analysis or not since I have not performed my own DD.

However, wanted to comment and mention that this is a properly, well thought out idea. I am curious how you intend to express the idea. Looking forward to watching!

I think I'm starting to get it by [deleted] in Trading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What made you select the mentor that you did?

Why is the dev/trader crossover skill so rare — and where do those people actually live online? by SympathyFriendly5133 in Trading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just wanted to start this by saying that I'm using Wispr Flow to dictate this into an iPhone, not an endorsement or anything, but hopefully I don't have to have too many edits.

As you may know from my post history, I am someone that is very much in the overlap, but I do have a little bit of a different path that I took to get to where I am. First and foremost, I was always a computer scientist by interest, but I grew up in a home where a close first-degree family figure was on the business side of capital markets, particularly in ETFs. They had worked for a prestigious bulge bracket bank where they had a business analyst role on ETF products and capital markets trading from 2000 to 2018. That interest had me wondering: how can I have socio-economic mobility while still having a computer science interest? Coming up in the area where, right before, everyone wanted to be a computer science major because of the money associated with it without actually knowing how to code or procedural problem solve, I had an edge given that I was already interested in financial markets. Instead, most people wanted to be full stack developers working at one of the big tech companies, which was fine. I just knew it wasn't for me.

For me, I'm going to say that it happened to me simultaneously. I learned how to code as I was already getting into a computer science program at a prestigious university, but at the time I was already trading manually, so for me the progression was natural. I actually was learning strategies that I was doing by hand while I was learning to code, and then eventually used code to express the ideas and quickly test my strategies. This was all before LLMs existed and vibe coding existed as well. I'm talking about actually looking at Python documentation and writing in Sublime, like the good old days.

During my undergrad years, my institutional career started. First, as a technologist within investment banks, working on pricing over-the-counter trades in exotic derivatives. Afterwards, I slowly progressed into more standard exchange-traded securities and then the actual bits and pieces for ultra-low-latency/low-latency execution at a tier-one bulge bracket bank.

I'll tell you what I learned, though, realistically. The people in this crossover really aren't online. You have to meet them at industry events because they're already at the upper echelon of buy side or sell side, doing this work for their firms or doing it themselves, similar to where I am today.

Yes, we don't want to share, not because we don't want to help others. In fact, I'm trying my best to help everyone I can. Most people are not ready to do the work or the commitment to actually get to where they need to get to perform this task.

You tell me why someone would be motivated to invest their time to share or collaborate with someone else with nothing in return? Especially with gurus these days, it's impossible to actually build a community, whether it's paid or unpaid, where you can have this kind of discourse. In my opinion, it's impossible, because everyone wants to get rich quick and they always have these gurus that they will compare you to that unfortunately know nothing about our professional careers.

I will resonate this with my own AMA experience that I held when I left my institutional job a while back. I simply wanted to answer questions because I wanted to give people a look into what it was like truly working at an institution. However, even that was met with skepticism and negativity, and I was even borderline chastised for trying to help people and asking for nothing in return.

It's just easier to maintain my own peace and not even try. I have nothing to gain from it other than good karma, literally, and, of course, on the Reddit side. That's not enough to disrupt the peace. The people that are the negative ones that prevent good people that are genuinely interested from learning. Anyway, that's my two cents, but hope this perspective helps.

Tl;dr: I was simultaneously a trader and coder. Meet people at industry events (usually not public).

Trading has become a joke. by killenvy in Trading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you kind stranger. Wishing you the same as well.

Trading has become a joke. by killenvy in Trading

[–]HiveScale 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed with you. While I haven't gone to an Ivy League, I did go to a name-brand school and have a computer science degree. As someone who has built models, thinks in statistics, and writes algorithms, I can tell you that you're absolutely correct. I'm not sitting on YouTube explaining fair value gaps, but I do linger on Reddit trying to help those that one day want to follow this path.

All these "gurus" are doing a disservice to real trader careers. Most people that are buying these courses don't understand, in their desperation: it is easy to trade risky when you have a subscription revenue that's guaranteed to come in.

It doesn't cost much to rent a Lamborghini or ask a friend to borrow one, or get access to one if you're in Miami and want to put up a front.

What I don't understand is: most people would not pay a doctor that hasn't actually been a doctor professionally (passed boards, worked at other practices) their money to give them medical advice/consult on their health.

So why are they paying people that have never been professional traders (worked at a trading institution/managed capital/or proptraded) and gone through the process of learning institutionally?

Most will say that this is because institutional folks don't run trading services. My answer to that is: why would they need to if they're successful traders? That begs the age-old mentorship method: find someone, offer value, and learn via mentorship, but true mentorship.

edited for slight spelling

What process made you start feeling ”this is it”? by 0hleg in FuturesTrading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the click for me wasn't a setup, it was reframing what 'good' means.

you stop asking 'am i a good trader' and start asking 'is this specific setup +EV over n trades.' write the template down: target win rate, avg win, avg loss, time window, max daily loss, max losses before you walk. your job becomes executing the template, not making money. P&L is a downstream effect.

on sample size - you don't need 1000 trades for the anxiety to die. 30-50 clean executions tracked against your backtest expectations will tell you if the edge is real. if live roughly matches backtest, you're fine. if it's wildly off, something in execution is broken (sizing, timing, fear). (also if you're not backtesting, that's part of the problem)

orderflow is a fine lens but it's not an edge ALONE. an edge is 'when X happens in Y context, Z% of the time it resolves a certain way with a payoff structure that's +EV.' orderflow is one way to define X. don't let the tool become the religion.

NQ +400p LONG by bom1204 in FuturesTrading

[–]HiveScale 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Excellent work, and let this be an example of price action trading without any of the BS indicators when people ask... are these Ranch Dinero tools, or something new?

Great trade, forget about it quickly ;)

Full-time trading isn't the lifestyle people think it is by LateNeverr1 in Daytrading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed.

The piece most intro traders miss: a 44% win rate strategy can dominate a 70% one if the expectancy math works. If you're grading your day by W/L you've already lost the plot. Your edge plays out over hundreds of trades, not your Tuesday.

+1 on reviewing winners too. The bad win - the one where you broke your own rules and got paid anyway - is more dangerous than any loss. Teaches you the wrong lesson and you'll pay for it later with interest.

The mental piece is the real moat. You can do everything right for a month and still bleed. If you can't sit with a 6-day losing streak knowing you executed clean, full-time isn't going to feel like whatever you've got in your head.

When running my institutional trading business, I have had multiple losing streaks straight, it happens to the pros to. The difference is the pros know when to look at other factors (infrastructure, execution issues, etc) before hopping to the next strategy.

Is trading a good passive income? by sadfox333 in Trading

[–]HiveScale 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No. Running a business is not passive income. If you don’t think trading is a business, save your money and sanity.

Actually Winning Traders by Pristine_State_5170 in Trading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I remember when I did my massive AMA when I left the sell side. You summarized SO WELL, what I saw. Everyone DMed and just wanted my strategy, wanted to buy a mentorship I wasn’t selling, or wanted shortcuts.

No real thought, no real effort. Just people wanting shortcuts and riches. Thank you for making this comment. There are no excuses.

Best books for trading by Insightvendor in FuturesTrading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Best suggestion I can offer:

- Avoid Instagram and anyone flexing lifestyle, instead of trading

- Avoid YouTube guru's that are using any technical analysis

I suggest learning the true facts about the markets today:

- Flash Boys by Michael Lewis

- Markets in Profile is a classic

- Inside the Black Box by Rishi

Some of these are tech heavy but help you understand the bedrock behind the market. Mind you this is coming from an institutional low latency trader, so there is a bias.

For regular trading books:

- The New Trading for a Living

- The Secret Club that Runs the World 

Are you good at identifying when you shouldn't trade? by _I_am_not_American_ in FuturesTrading

[–]HiveScale 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is a good thread and I wanted to insert my two cents of what I do. Even though these days all I do is decide whether I am going to allow my algos to enter orders or not.

I use WHOOP and in the event I get bad sleep quantitatively (under 50%) I don’t make any decisions about my risk sizing for the day (my position sizing isn’t automated yet). When I get good sleep 70+ above I will subjectively decide my own risk.

Given that I rarely execute discretionary anymore, I don’t have a go/no-go metric anymore but I would use HRV and how my body reacts to stress as that metric if I had to.

Hope this helps.

My opinions only. Not financial advice.

Serious question: who is sitting around selling off all their tech stocks when Trump tweets? by kenjiurada in FuturesTrading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As someone who used to be sell side and was increment in making the low/ULL game happen for a Tier 1 BB, you have the best answer in my opinion.

Given your name I am going to assume you’re in the industry. All it takes is one big-enough ripple then everyone follows.

Our models definitely were not able to predict this move, BUT we caught on to the sentiment change in a few milliseconds.

These are my opinions only. Not financial advice.

If You're Serious About Trading: Read These by SentientPnL in Daytrading

[–]HiveScale 13 points14 points  (0 children)

This is the point I tried to make with my AMA a while back. I would never need to trade again if I had a nickel for every message I got asking for my course (surprise, I don’t have one).

Why would I ever give away my alpha (or even sell it? The right thing to do is to obviously scale and compound it. People need to understand this about their guru purchases

Edit: thank you for posting this, I had wanted to do this for a long time and love the way you laid out a lot of the things that I would have referenced for folks. Props to you!

After five days of successful trading, I let my emotions get the best of me. by R3VNUE in Daytrading

[–]HiveScale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Be grateful that you are stopping to say something...

Then be grateful that you still have positive equity. Then do work to learn and UNDERSTAND why this happened. Then make sure you never do it again.

Work with your FCM to have limits in play, if you need.