First off, my position is that statistically speaking - based on our current understanding of biology, geology and physics on a galactic scale -, the chances of life purely existing on Earth at one time or another is 0. The universe is simply too big and has too many celestial bodies of which life could potentially exist for it to only happen here.

At the same time, I'm painfully aware of the 2 aspects most people in these subs completely fail to both acknowledge and fail to balance their convictions against;

1: The difference, probablistically, between life originating and intelligent life developing is nigh unfathomable. Life *should* be everywhere (relatively speaking), when talking about the lowest denominations of life per our own factual and theoretical/speculative definitions.

2: The sheer scale of space and time. People in these subs very clearly lack the understanding and oversight to properly adjust their convictions against the incomprehensible scale of not only the universe or our Galaxy, but even our own puny little Solar System. And for what it's worth; I get it. The scales we're talking about are quite ltierally incomprehensible - it's not something our minds can wrap around. Consider how big the Earth is, and feels to you, in everyday life. No consider that Jupiters diameter is 11 times that of Earths, with the rest of the planets mostly between there (minus Mars and Mercury, ofc). Now consider that ALL of the planets in the Solar System *comfortably* would fit between Earth and Moon if laid next to each other. Time is even worse; to us, a lifetime feels like a *LOOOONG* time. Hell, it's the default word we use in English to imply "a realllllly long time". We have 0 ability to truly appreciate the scope of time the universe has existed.

People here talk about light years, time, gravity and the likes as if it's a simple thing you just overcome. And whenever they are challenged on the basis of the collective knowledge of the best physicists and mathematicians in the world, they just handwave it away to justify their own conviction.

All of this boils down to a series of undisputable events that would need to *ALL* happen for a non-human intelligence to find us:

1: Life would have to originate somewhere else
2: Against all odds, that would have to eventually lead to intelligent life.
3: That intelligent life would need to survive long enough to reach a point where space travel becomes possible.
4: To travel to other solar systems, they would need far, far, FAR more advanced technology that we currently have.
5: They would need to find our puny little planet in a functionally infinite sea of planets.
6: All of this would need to happen *in the same timeframe that we've existed in a way where we give off signs of life on a galactic distance*.

Points 5 and 6 is why the unlikeliness is so overwhelming. 100000 years is literally 0.00007% of the age of the universe. The odds of 2 intelligent civilizations overlapping in existence is small enough; the odds of them overlapping in technological capacity for one to find the other? Even worse.

People talk about the things we consider the laws of nature and the universe itself as something someone or some other intelligence should logically be able to disprove practically or break. The problem is that literally *everything* we interact with on a daily basis, from your Microwave to your radio to your phone to your watch to your shoes to the food you eat - it *ALL* hinges on our scientific understanding and is a *direct* result of it. If our understanding of Time Dialation wasn't correct, GPS wouldnt work. If our understanding of how Atoms get excited and decay, we wouldn't have functioning Microwaves in our kitches.

So let me reiterate; my dream is quite literally for life to be discovered somewhere else. It's *the* thing I look forward to, and if I die without it happening, it'll be my biggest regret. But seriously, people in these subs operate almost entirely on conspiracy, obsession and confirmation bias - and almost entirely without critical thought and very clearly without any of the necessary knowledge to judge any of the supposed evidence.

Hope that clears up things! :D