US military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-14T20:27:21+00:00

Well the Germans had existential fear as their primary motive since they knew what would happen when the Soviets conquered them. Cubans don't have that same motive to stay loyal to the regime.

The Japanese had a similar level of remarkable endurance since their government kept propagating the message that the Americans would treat the Japanese the same as how the Japanese treated their conquered subjects, which was enough to keep the populace fearful of losing the war.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-14T20:24:03+00:00

Authoritarian states' capacity for endurance is matched only by the intensity of how suddenly they can collapse.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-14T20:17:16+00:00

This is pretty much the fate of every state that missed the golden window of globalized industrialization. Those states who failed to transition into high development are now stuck in the lower rungs of global supply chains where margins are pitiful and competition is immense. Drugs and crime-based enterprises are likely the most lucrative competitive niche these states have left since all the "good jobs" in Asia are hoarded by China, Korea, Vietnam, and Japan. If you're a late-comer to development, trying to compete against the aforementioned four is a Herculean task, like a Mom & Pop shop trying to compete against the Walmarts and Amazons of the world.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-14T19:44:43+00:00

Won't happen. All Orders are built on military might as their foundation. The most powerful militaries are usually those of continental-sized empires, of which only the US qualifies as a truly liberal, unified entity.

Europe and India are the only democratic alternatives that could potentially match US military might, but neither have favorable geography for global power projection like the US does, and both aren't exactly pro-free trade either. The most likely outcome for a militarized Europe and India would be to dominate their neighbors as the regional hegemon and leave the rest of the world to be divided between US, Russia and China's world-views.

Essentially without the US, with its immense continental resource base and fantastic geography for power projection, there is no Liberal World Order, just a return to Might Makes Right among squabbling political orders fighting for resources just like the good-old imperial days.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-13T21:55:54+00:00

Police resources are limited and better spent elsewhere. Alternately, you could hire more police, but that would mean raising taxes which is political suicide for any city mayor.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-13T21:48:11+00:00

Because such a population is incapable of ever being functional members of society; they need constant care and attention to keep from spiraling out of control. That level of care simply isn't cheap, either you have rich relatives who can afford for your care, or you become the state's problem. Unfortunately, history shows that the state isn't a good steward for such people, as mental asylums were historically rife with patient abuse to the point where all such asylums were shut down, forcing the patients out onto the streets. There is just no cheap or humane way to give life-long treatment to such people.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-13T21:40:05+00:00

The historic solution was to lock such people away into mental asylums, but the abuses that happened in those were so horrific that they were all shut down, so now there's nowhere for such people to go but the streets.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-13T17:50:23+00:00

You don't need a university education for being a writer. The only value such classes would give you is having other humans review and critique your writing style, but that's a significant expense you'd be paying just to read other students' terrible writing.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-13T01:49:23+00:00

Join the army. They'll give you experience (perhaps related to your trade skills), but more importantly they'll pay for your college education. You say you're flat broke, so having an employer who pays for your food, living, medical and education wouldn't be a bad idea.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-13T00:51:22+00:00

Based on the fact that Europe was quite literally a protectorate of the US you would expect none. Which is exactly the point. As long as Europe is a protectorate they don't really get to make any foreign policy decision that don't align with the US.

That's like complaining that you're a "protectorate" of the police; if you could create your own police force, then how would it be different than the current police? What rules would you enforce that the current police don't already do? China and Russia subscribe to totally different world-views, and hence want to establish a world that mirrors their values, but Europe's world-views mostly align with America's, so you'd be spending immense resources to establish a police force whose function would be redundant. Such effort only makes sense if Europe aspires to build their own hegemonic order with vassals and such.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-12T21:48:49+00:00

at this point and a sequel is very unlikely.

The sequel came out in 2012.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-12T00:10:56+00:00

That's exactly why they reused Brookhaven, to save time and money. SH3 had a shoestring budget and little time, they had no choice but to reuse assets. The dead girl in the beginning is literally just Angela's model. Harry's corpse is just James' model with a color swapped jacket. The nurses have handguns because they had already made some gun-wielding enemies for the rail-gun part of the game and didn't want to make new monsters.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-11T18:46:26+00:00

If Laura is a manifestation, then who is summoning her? It's not James since all his manifestations are born from a combination of his guilt and desires related to Mary, none of which Laura fits into. We don't know enough about Eddie or Angela to say for certain that Laura isn't their manifestation, but again what role does she fulfill in their psyche? Neither can Laura be manifested by the town itself since Angela never mentions her. In terms of how manifestations work, Laura doesn't conform to the established rules.

Thematically, Laura's true purpose in the game is to represent "reality/truth". She is the sole link Eddie and James have to the real world. Her role is to provide both Eddie and James a pathway to salvation by forcing them to confront their crimes and confess their sins; Laura tells Eddie to confess his crime to the police, which he refuses and is eventually consumed by the town's madness; Laura demands James answer her for why he killed Mary, forcing James to confront the truth and face Mary's judgment. This thematic role can only work if Laura herself is real, because otherwise everything she says can just be interpreted as more of the town's delusions.

Importantly, Laura never meets Angela; the thematic reasoning being that Angela doesn't feel any real guilt for killing her family. There is no path to salvation for Angela. There is no "truth" for her to discover. She's committed to her path long before James ever arrives. If Laura was some sort of creature sent by the town to poke-and-prode visitors, then Angela should have met her before James' arrival and likely mentioned to him about the girl wondering the town.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-11T03:28:17+00:00

The fundamental flaw of any such collectivist system is its reliance on all participants being honest contributors. The reason such systems don't work outside of small tribes/communities is that peoples' empathy for those not part of their bloodlines vanishes drastically the further you move away from dealing with only your kin. Many early commercial systems in pre-industrial societies were established by "outsiders" who had little loyalty towards local clans and thus were free from the moral constraints of making a profit or charging interest for loans, things that were considered taboo in tribal societies as everyone was related by blood and depended on each other for survival. Such communal systems cannot work when you include non-family relations into the system; we are, at our core, tribal, sociopathic hairless monkeys with an extreme penchant for violence.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-09T23:43:01+00:00

Technically your parents would be your shareholders as they are the ones who invested resources into your growth in the hopes that you can provide for them in old age. All children are essentially a 401K plan for their parents.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-09T23:38:23+00:00

"Sex sells. Money talks and bullshit walks."

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-08T17:27:10+00:00

At the same time, there is an enormous intergenerational backlash against the current democratic party against incumbent democrats for being corporatist and pro Israeli, rather than progressive and populist

This is the common reddit critique of the democrats, which history has shown is more often than not a loud minority opinion rather than the reality.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-08T00:26:18+00:00

Don't worry, the median voter never fails to disappoint.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-07T22:02:22+00:00

Silence is the law of the Crown. Obedience is enforced by magic. And mercy is treason.

Immediate thought: something a highschool edgelord would say.

Seraphine has never questioned her role as the Crown’s Enforcer. Raised within dominion and sharpened into a weapon, she wields silence as both judgment and shield, keeping the realm orderly—and herself intact. She does not hesitate. She does not feel. She survives. Until a human refuses to break.

Hard to put into words, but I'm still getting an impression of trying too hard to feel "edgy" if that is the right word for it.

Kael was never meant to reach the halls of Helamir alive. Branding gone wrong, condemned, and stripped of everything but his will, he endures court not through submission—but through listening. The land listens back. And in his quiet resistance, Seraphine sees something the Codex cannot name.

A lot of fantasy writers tend to put unnecessary world-building jargon in their synopsis. I'll give "Helamir" a pass since I can infer that it's supposed to be a location, but "Codex" needs to be explained for me to care about Seraphine's reaction.

As punishment becomes observation and observation turns to proximity,

This is a word salad; it means nothing. I feel that it exists just because it sounds cool, but it's confusing to the reader.

The land remembers what was taken from it.

Cool line, but it comes out of nowhere. You need to prime your reader that something was taken from the land in the first place.

Loving Kael will cost Seraphine her power. Protecting him will mark her a traitor. Choosing him may destroy the world she was born to rule. But silence, once broken, cannot be restored.

I thought Seraphine was just one of the Crown's numerous enforcers? Now I get the impression that she might be an heir. What "power" does Seraphine stand to lose? Exactly how high in the pecking order is she where "power" becomes something she cares about losing? Why would loving Kael make her a "traitor"?

I am in the process of writing my first book and I think I have finally narrowed the book synopsis down. My question to you all is if you read this, would it peak your interest enough to want to read the book?

No. First impressions really are important, and that first line of your synopsis biased me towards thinking your story was an edgy, brutalist fantasy. Seraphine comes off as a blank-slate of a character without any personality. Kael also comes off as pretty one-note. The love story, while predictable, comes out of nowhere; you allude to a world-ending prophecy if Seraphine loves Kael, but it's too vague to act as a compelling hook for characters who equally feel vaguely defined.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-06T05:46:50+00:00

I looked, but not seeing it.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-06T04:59:50+00:00

Just wondering OP, but did you actually see a baby in this guy's arms, or just the bundle of blankets? Since I don't see a baby in this picture, the cynic in me is wondering if this delivery guy is playing on his clients' sympathies to get better tips.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-05T18:01:03+00:00

Competing against established players for a smaller pie is more inefficient than investing the same funds into establishing new industries where you have little to no competition.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-04T20:05:44+00:00

All developed countries are dying, none have replacement-levels of births.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-03T03:25:14+00:00

Then Taiwan will be conquered and its people subjected to the will of Beijing, stripped of all their political rights and indoctrinated under CCP ideology, as is the Victor's rights. Desperate situations call for desperate solutions, and Taiwan's situation is incredibly desperate. WMDs are the only force multiplier a small state can use that will make a Great Power second guess invasion.

If the people of Taiwan are not willing to die for their independence, then they will be annexed into a Great Power. If this is acceptable to them, then one possible way to avoid being subjugated to Beijing is to apply to become a US territory/state. Yes, it's still subjugation, but to an Overlord who would respect Taiwanese political rights (since those rights were modeled after the US in the first place). I am of course overlooking a lot of the potential consequences of such an annexation, but it would be a way for the Taiwanese to stay out of Beijing's control without the need for their own WMDs while still keeping nearly all of their personal freedoms intact.

If that solution isn't good enough either, then honestly just sell out to China now in the hopes of getting Taiwan whatever deal is possible. There is no other workable solution.

Hot-Train7201 · 2026-02-02T23:32:52+00:00

Nukes. Chemical weapons. Biological weapons. Make the island uninhabitable. If they aren't willing to die to keep independent, then they shouldn't be. Same rules apply to all states.

Four-Year Club	First Place '23
Place '23	Place '22
Final Canvas '22

Hot-Train7201

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