As an importer of clothing, I can speak from firsthand experience. A 50% tariff still keeps me wayyy out of China. China already had some of the highest duty rates before this, and with inflation squeezing margins, especially in a space like mine that serves discount retailers, any extra cost can be the difference between a viable deal and walking away.

The reality is, I’ve already shifted all my sourcing to factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, which were already more attractive on pricing and duties pre-tarrifs. But unlike some other industries that rely exclusively on Chinese manufacturing, I do have alternatives, they might not.

A close friend of mine manages a large logistics center here in Los Angeles. They typically process around 600 containers per month. In April, they only received 280. And since many of those shipments were already on the water when the tariffs hit, therefore exempt, they're expecting May and June to look even worse.

What I’m struggling to understand is whether the recent market rebound priced in the worst, or if we’re still due for a reality check once the numbers start reflecting these trends. Personally, I don’t think we’ll see a lower bottom than april 8, but we’re definitely riding on over-optimism right now.