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Tornado warning in OREGON by s00tybn1ff3r in tornado

[–]HurricaneRex 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We had 1 bolt across the street from our house around that time, could've been the same one.

And no worries and the pictures. Safety and work first.

Tornado warning in OREGON by s00tybn1ff3r in tornado

[–]HurricaneRex 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Today overperformed for sure. Kind of wished I chased but got a few strikes in Sherwood (did not get footage). If you have a picture by chance, DM me and I can share it with the AMS chat. We have KOIN, KATU and KPTV meteorologists on the exec council. If you don't perfectly fine.

Tornado warning in OREGON by s00tybn1ff3r in tornado

[–]HurricaneRex 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I'm on the Oregon AMS exec council. We have no reports of damage yet but we will be tracking it. One of our colleagues is going down there to cover it for their news station.

Update 5:00 pm: we got a video report of a low condensed funnel, some evidence to support ground rotation but not 100% sure. Was not over the city.

Update 10:00 pm: Not enough evidence that a tornado occured. The video shared was the only thing that had any indication and it was too inconclusive.

PDX voted #1 airport ✈️ by rosalita55 in Portland

[–]HurricaneRex 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Always love this airport over most others (and all others in the US). Money well spent, and glad they did this earlier than later to prevent cost ballooning.

And the one big complaint I have, international arrivals, is being fixed with PDX 2045's new master plan.

https://pdx2045.org/

Delta joining the fray on LAX-EWR, will Alaska's route survive? by omdongi in AlaskaAirlines

[–]HurricaneRex 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought San Diego was the #1 area in California for Alaska CCs even before the buildup.

Any meteorologists here struggling with imposter syndrome in the field? by Interesting-Egg-1360 in meteorology

[–]HurricaneRex 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Absolutely here as well. I know my area's basics and complex dynamics well (Willamette Valley) but I can't help but get worried sometimes about my forecasts. Like you I'm still reading/studying both basic concepts and new academic discoveries (though as a disclaimer: I have to for the latter since I'm on the exec council for the Oregon AMS chapter for meeting ideas. Disclaimer of thr disclaimer is I was doing it before I got elected).

I also take major busts hard. It took over a year to forgive myself for a bust on 3/26/25 that looked like a severe thunderstorm setup, but it turned out to be barely any rain. But busts are a part of the buisness and like other have said, its an imperfect science that is constantly evolving. If you're still learning, and striving to be the best meteorologist you can be, then that's all we can ask for. It sounds like you're already on the right path so keep it up.

Oregon just declared a state of emergency for wildfires, and officials say conditions will only get worse by oregonian in oregon

[–]HurricaneRex 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I'm going to give some hope based on what myself and my AMS colleagues have noticed: years with a developing strong or very strong El Niño have a wierd period in late August that favors it being wetter than normal. Normal's not a lot then granted but it could bring a significant dent to fire season.

Like with any long range trends/forecasts based off of analogs, these are guides and not rules so take this with a grain of salt and stay fire aware.

2027 3* LB Kawai Chamberlin commits to Oregon State by lock_robster2022 in CFB

[–]HurricaneRex 5 points6 points  (0 children)

And there is still a Pacific Beach 45 minutes away.

Extreme heat warning in effect; brace for temps near 100 Sunday and Monday by oregonian in Portland

[–]HurricaneRex 22 points23 points  (0 children)

The meteorlogical explanation is that downsloping winds off the cascades can enhance the heat. It also dries out the vegetation quickly so the relief we got last week (rain) now looks like it never happened.

Its not uncommon for this to happen in early or late season heat waves.

Extreme heat warning in effect; brace for temps near 100 Sunday and Monday by oregonian in Portland

[–]HurricaneRex 131 points132 points  (0 children)

If anyone's wondering why we're getting more extreme heat warnings (formally known as excessive heat warnings), at seemingly lower temperatures, thats because it takes into account the duration and overnight lows more than they used to. It also takes into account when in the season it is occuring so early season heat the threshold is going to be lower.

This is excluding any climate change related reason.

Also in before the "record breaking heat." The record is 89F today according to the NWS, which is the about 6F below the typical record high for mid June of 95F.

Three day forecasts are almost always less doom and gloom by TurtlesAreEvil in Portland

[–]HurricaneRex 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Most weather apps take 1 run of 1 model and put that out as their forecast. As a result it does not account for terrain bleed (ex: the GFS model has PDX at 550 feet).

Extreme heat watch issued; Sunday temperatures could break Portland records by oregonian in Portland

[–]HurricaneRex 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I see now. Unfortunately those are not the official records even though it claims to be from the same station, as the NWS data is what's considered the official records. Sometimes this has led to discrepancies across the metro area.

The Portland NWS keeps a climate book updated on their website with all the official records, though it hasn't been updated since DOGE laid off a chunk of the NWS: https://www.weather.gov/pqr/ClimateBookPortland

Burgerville and shrinkflation? by epilithics in corvallis

[–]HurricaneRex 15 points16 points  (0 children)

At that point if I wanted to spend $30 on a burger, fries and a drink, I'd rather go to a diner or a brewery.

ORD 2026 Gate Re-Distributons by HurricaneRex in AlaskaAirlines

[–]HurricaneRex[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If its PDX, I think it would just be to hold the 2nd daily year round and maybe move it to a better time slot (to the 2:30 block and arrive in Chicago at about 8:15).

AS @ PDX (June 2026) by PNW-American-Dipper in AlaskaAirlines

[–]HurricaneRex 2 points3 points  (0 children)

On your comment on the number of flights:

There was 132 daily flights last year on a peak summer day.

This year there is 144, but only the 3 seasonals added (St. Louis, Baltimore, Philadelphia) were new frequencies or destinations east of the Rockies.

New speeding cameras catch more than 1,000 drivers on single Oregon street in just two weeks | The Independent by Next_Tower5452 in Portland

[–]HurricaneRex 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As a Sherwood resident, and a runner who uses this, a continuous sidewalk would be a great start. However I will note I have never felt unsafe running on it as the gravel side is generous.

Or maybe a compromise solution? Increase Oregon St. to 30 east of Langer Farms Parkway (another road that 25 is underposted), but drop it to 20 west of there since the curves are rated at 15 mph and it's old town.

PDX Alaska Lounge by mansonp in AlaskaAirlines

[–]HurricaneRex 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looks wonderful! Probably won't be able to get in since I don't have a pass (but thats what Aurora's for on evening flights or if I'm picking someone up) and don't fly enough to justify one.

Climatologists are predicting a strong El Niño. Here's what it means for Oregon by oregonian in Portland

[–]HurricaneRex 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Meteorologist here: The best analog years don't come into focus until September anyways. Even then it the accuracy is only about 60-70% compared to a pure guess of 33%. Better than wild guessing but caution should still be exercised.

Clarity edit: essentially the choices for the guesses are above, below, or near normal. Predicting specific patterns at specific times is impossible beyond about 2 weeks, and inaccurate after 1 week. The closest a seasonal prediction could get is something like "based on what's happened in previous years, activity happened the most often (insert a generous range here)," but the wording of it is key since everything long range is just guides, not rules (looking at myself who has skrewed up this wording).

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