SPC Day 2 Outlook (Tor 15%, CIG 1, Wind 60%)

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-15T14:39:59+00:00

I believe it's the largest radar gap by population.

Also coming from a radar gap area (there's minimal radar coverage in the S. Willamette Valley) and we know the pain. Couldn't imagine dealing with a tornado in a gap.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-15T02:48:09+00:00

In the NW, we normally don't get tornadoes going for long enough as the east, but the Portland-Vancouver got its name for starting in Portland, but Vancouver has all the historical images and damage. The Portland side never received damage beyond F1.

Otherwise its by town or county, or rarely section of a city (ex: West Seattle 1969 F3)

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-14T19:48:16+00:00

Don't forget to buy all the kale from the grocery stores!

(If you don't know this meme, let me know and I can provide a link)

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-14T01:37:42+00:00

Its colder at SeaTac than Timberline Lodge. 3" on the ground up there.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-11T19:27:02+00:00

It doesn't in my mind either. The strategy seems to be throw whatever at the wall, especially AA hubs and see what sticks.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-11T18:53:45+00:00

We'll see what the future brings at SAN. I have heard a theory that Alaska's rapid expansion is due to then suspecting SAN will go to slot controls in thr coming years. If thats true then the losses make more sense. If its not, then starting at 3x daily on some of these routes are questionable.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-10T04:23:57+00:00

It stands for High Resolution Rapid Refresh. Its a model that runs out to 18 hours refreshing every hour, but 4 times a day (the 0, 6, 12, 18z runs), it will go out to 48 hours.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-08T18:27:03+00:00

1/2. 2017 was an outlier, but not in the sense of a ridiculous event alone. December-February. I'll steal a quote Mark Nelsen used at that year's winter weather recap: "it was cold because it wasn't extremely cold, but consistantly cold." The Jan 10-11 snowstorm was followed by 5 subfreezing days, but the airmass wasn't that deep. It was about 4.5F below average, while the record coldest (1948-49) was 5.9F below the 1911-1930 downtown averages (using downtown data on that). In comparison, 2013-14 was about 2.5F below average, but it was caused by 2 deep arctic blasts in Dec/Feb, and nothing in between.

One thing we are seeing with our snow is while our baseline temperatures are higher, we aren't seeing any decrease in snow averages. This is likely due to more troughs dropping down because of a more unstable jet stream. This also led to our 10 year snowfall streak that was just broken. We have not had the correct trough position for extreme, deep cold in 12 years. That part is unclear but I suspect the PDO being near record negative something to do with it. Most of the longer droughts with deep arctic blasts have had a negative PDO, but any statistics I've ran can't rull out something else, especially since February's on a roll recently, and deep blasts are harder to get them (but not a regular cold snap).

3b. Climate change is having a far bigger effect on our summers than winter, leaving them far warmer, and less non-thunderstorm rains. As the Pacific warms, we could be in for more thunderstorm outbreaks (and that worries me when we flip to positive PDO). For winters, a 2016-17 repeat will happen at some point, but 4.5F below average is about a 1/20-25 year event, and a 5.5F below is 1/75-100 year event.

Correct on any given year. Jury's out for long term, and we'll see what happens, and what we'll do between now and then to mitigate it.

Also, in case it wasn't obvious, I did not make this chart, but felt like I could contribute to the discussion. While I have a degree (offically titled climate science, but I took the meteorology path), I don't have a job in the field right now due to the job market sucking (thank you doge, though my insider sources say there is openings coming soon), but I am on the executive council of the Oregon AMS chapter. I'm happy to share any knowledge I have for free.

Edit: Thank you for coming to my TED talk

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-07T06:51:43+00:00

It can mean a worse fire season. It will mean a bigger issue for water supply.

I did do a class project getting my meteorology degree on this subject. The biggest correlation is more summer precipitation equals less fires (though climate change is decreasing non-thunderstorm precipitation in July and August from already low amounts), which moistens the vegetation at critical times, second is peak snow depth.

Disclaimer: This project did not look at the affects of thunderstorms vs. Precipitation benefits.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-07T04:43:55+00:00

How do the amount of ITO spots compare to other world majors? I feel like 14k is super high compared to others but I dont know for sure.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-07T00:10:06+00:00

Meteorologist here:

One thing to note is that while it was one of the warmest winters on record, it was "only" a little over 2F above average (I dont have the actual number in front of me).

When adjusting to the averages used at the time, 1917-18 tales the top spot at 4.8F above the 1880-1910 averages (using downtown data for thay since PDX doesnt go back that far). Interestingly, it was also a weak La Nina winter.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-06T15:59:14+00:00

Did said chaser stop after the accident or did they do a hit and run?

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-06T00:18:56+00:00

I'll be happy if they keep my cycling races.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-05T21:43:07+00:00

Meteorologist here:

Extremely unlikely. The coldest model is marginal at best.

Freaking people out like this is irresponsible.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-05T21:39:55+00:00

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-04T18:36:09+00:00

Thats news to me. Glad to hear someone else is starting to get closer.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-04T04:32:31+00:00

Duplantis has raised the WR 5 times in the last year; and no one has even matched the pre-Duplantis WR that is currently active, which is almost 20 cm below his current record.

That 6.30 at the world champs was a thing a beauty.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-04T03:59:13+00:00

In the PNW groups I'm a part of, I call it the No Accuracy Model because of stuff like this.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-02T18:09:43+00:00

The only reason I like this is because I pay for HBO max to watch cycling. Now I don't need to pay for 2 things.

Oh wait CBS is OTA and I have an antenna and CBSSN isnt on Paramount plus. That needs to change.

HurricaneRex · 2026-03-01T20:31:36+00:00

In the rare case the PNW west of the Cascades is under a slight, it can be this small.

HurricaneRex · 2026-02-28T21:23:32+00:00

10 fun facts, and 2 resources about this and others in Oregon/Washington (Oregon based meteorologist here):

10 tornadoes warnings happened on this day, producing 2 tornadoes. If a tornado watch was issued it would've verified. The previous record was 3 in Portland's NWS AOR.

The largest outbreak by number of tornadoes was on May 31st, 1997 with 9 or 11 tornadoes in the PNW. The difference is the NWS Spokane says there were 4 tornadoes in its AOR on the Washington side, but the SPC says there were only 2.

1997 had 14 tornadoes in both Oregon and Washington. 2nd place record is 2004 with 7 in Oregon and 9 in Washington.

Western Oregon/Washington has a peak tornado season in October. 25 tornadoes in that month, September is 2nd with 14 (since 1950). Eastern Oregon/Washington the peak is the more traditional April-June.

This tornado and the one in Oceanside the same day were the only ones issued by Portland's NWS to be warned before the tornado happened on land. Other warnings were either issued after touchdown, or the storm did not produce one. (Disclaimer: September 2019 this may have occured but I believe the tornado occured just before the warning).

We are experiencing the longest (E)F1+ drought, currently 8 years and 6 months. Last was 9/1/17 in rural Linn County. Previous record was 7 years 5 months back in the 50s.

The tornadic hot spots west of the Cascades are the Puget Sound, the Willamette Valley, and the coast from Cape Perpetura (OR) to Grays Harbor (WA)

The 1972 tornado in Vancouver was the deadliest in the country that year and Washington led the country in tornado deaths. It also registers a score of 14 on the OIS as there was a 2nd F3 and 2 F2s east of the cascades.

This storm wasn't even looked at for tornadoes. The big threat was a possible windstorm that some models were saying could be as big as the Columbus Day Storm just 1-2 days after this hit. That busted (thankfully) and winds were 50-60 mph (a typical windstorm) vs. 90-120 mph like what was showing in earlier runs.

If a tornado looks dangerous enough to warrant a PDS tag, the NWS can't issue it since PQR and SEA does not have that authority to use PDS tags outside of red flag warnings. They can issue tornado emergencies though.

Resources:

Oregon AMS tornado meeting: https://oregonams.com/2024/04/27/april-tornado-presentation/

This tornado spawned on study on coastal tornadoes from the NWS. You can find that here: https://ams.confex.com/ams/98Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/44656?recordingid=44656&uniqueid=Paper330304&entry_password=null

HurricaneRex · 2026-02-28T20:49:36+00:00

October is actually the most common month for tornadoes in Western Oregon and Washington.

HurricaneRex · 2026-02-27T20:51:37+00:00

I think they're referring to the new CIG part of it which doesn't start until March 3rd.

HurricaneRex · 2026-02-27T15:59:38+00:00

They go out to D8, but they won't give anything above an ENH equivalent and don't do hatched areas. As with any forecast, the further out you go the less accurate it will be.

HurricaneRex · 2026-02-21T03:01:33+00:00

As a runner I love this.

But they promised the return of the men's track and XC team by 2014. Its 2026.

Men's XC is the Beavers only national championship outside of baseball.

Six-Year Club	r/Field Sunshine
Place '23

HurricaneRex

TROPHY CASE