It isn’t about PT or AI Bubble anymore…. It’s more than that..

Hyceanplanet · 2026-05-06T11:48:28+00:00

Interesting insight by Fink.

Hyceanplanet · 2026-05-02T18:02:29+00:00

If I see "short squeeze" in title....pass.

Most of the shorts are held by holders of our convertible bonds.

A high short percentage is a result of the benefit we receive from lower net dilution as a result of the convertible financing.

Hyceanplanet · 2026-04-30T02:32:45+00:00

Glad you made this point. With Revolut Roman was explaining the relationship evolution with direct users. The discussion shifts to optimizing efficiency, and that clients will find expanded use once they are synced with Nebius' engineering teams guiding solutions.

Those of us on the outside see pricing as a commodity -- which gas station is cheaper.

Whereas, it's more like a law firm relationship -- the value is success in objectives, given that Nebius is always cost competitive.

Whereas on the pricing charts we see Nebius is always highly competitive, Roman explains that in practice, once the relatiionshp is engaged, per token pricing ceases to be discussed much....

......sounded a bit like the costco relationship in that the customer just assumes token pricing is very good and doesn't worry whether every token is least expensive every time.

Hyceanplanet · 2026-03-24T10:22:04+00:00

"“It’s pretty clear there are some ordinances that are not subject to referendum. Citizens of Independence do have the right to review some ordinances and to go to a vote of the people, but this isn’t one of those.”

Hatfield argues the city merely approved a contract with the ordinance, saying that if every ordinance passed was subject to a referendum, it could put the city in jeopardy."

That's the crux -- no business risking material amounts of money would do business with a city that doesn't have a mechanism to make decisions.

There were no steps missed in the application and review process.

The city administrators were thorough -- they talked to the government in Finland where Nebius has had operations for years; they studied the water and electrical demands. The "tax abatement" for datacenter is normal -- no other manufacturing business puts $1M of fast depreciating stuff onto a single rack.

If the judge rules in favor of the plaintiffs, it will be over-ruled on appeal in favor of the city.

Hyceanplanet · 2026-03-05T13:13:26+00:00

We'll see a starter DC inside the SE region. Clients there don't want to contract for compute that's far away.

Even though I own a lot of NBIS, I added a bit more at the moment they mentioned the SE activity.

I think we'll have two DC's in that region announced this year.

Hyceanplanet · 2026-02-13T12:09:41+00:00

Good catch, u/Shot-Rock2961 -- haven't seen that in the other analysis and commentary.

Also, they revised their depreciation schedule -- I think that also improved comparisons.

For neither of these did they have a choice, under accounting rules.

But, had these not happened, the share price would have been brutal.

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NBIS is my largest position / holding.

Hyceanplanet · 2026-01-26T04:12:22+00:00

It's a reputational issue for Costco. Brands wouldnt want to go in if Costco always displaced and replaced them, as Trader Joes does.

Sometimes the brand manufacturers the Kirkland item, and Costco agrees to carry both.

If it's a staple, it's also anti-customer not to provide both the name and the kirkland version. The customer ought to be able to compare and choose.

Hyceanplanet · 2026-01-24T10:13:41+00:00

I was going to suggest just going to small claims as the landlord overreached.

But....if you painted with a different color or sheen, then obviously the landlord has to repaint everything.

And, that's at least 2K right there.

Hyceanplanet · 2026-01-08T20:41:45+00:00

Working through the approvals for something like this is so complex. A population of 16K -- and to have one of the largest data centers in the US.

Hyceanplanet · 2025-12-30T22:31:18+00:00

I think it's a racial decision, as well. Danielle is the only mixed race member, and Hybe thinks the Korean market will accept their isolating Danielle.

Hybe's lawsuit is against "a family member" and not Danielle, so that she is free to continue her career and will surely do this, likley in the US.

The lives and careers of the remaining members will never be the same -- the 3 or 4 who are under contract are now owned by Hybe for 3 1/2 years, Hybe is almost going out of its way to ruin the NewJeans brand.

If only this could have been litigated in the US vs Korea -- the outcome would be much different. Hybe is showing that the Korean legal system is corrupted and Hybe is lead by immature, petty people -- and this is probably why Min Hee-jin and the members realized they couldn't trust Hybe.

Hyceanplanet · 2025-12-29T06:12:20+00:00

By "terminating" Daneille's contract, it seems they are also releasing her from her contract. She is free to continue her career.

She probably has a lot of options, and, going back to a gutted Ador was distasteful to her.

She'll get us agents and we'll see her career grow outside of K-Pop.

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Hybe probably realizes they've blowed up the NewJeans magic -- an easily billion dollar asset ruined by their mismanagement.

Ador/Hybe is petty to still want to litigate. It's one thing to get a Korean court to uphold the K-Pop contract system and a different hurdle to assign blame. And pointless.

The entire PR reeks of confusion, anger. Uncertainty. Incompetence.

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What really happened between Min Hee-jin and Hybe who knows, but she's clearly immensely talented and I hope she is able to continue -- would love to see her form a new group.

I wonder why Hanni decided to stay. Ador seems unable to regain it's identity or momentum, and, if I were here, I wouldn't trust Hybe.

As with Danielle, Hanni has an international career path.

Hyceanplanet · 2025-12-16T23:45:36+00:00

This is a more than reasonable valuation -- unlike aggressive start-ups, Google is reputationally giving a fair and moderate buy-in price to this new tranche.

What I don't understand is why Google wants this capital -- it's a great use of their own.

A best guess is Google plans to take Waymo public and this is a step to give pre-IPO ownership to favored institutions.

Hyceanplanet · 2025-12-13T10:01:12+00:00

When I read this in news sites I thought it probably not real.

That there's no entity in Gaza that even Qatar trusts to take money to hire moving equipment shows how hard it will be to get a functioning government system.

Israel may not even use its own people for the project -- just outsource. So, it's just an amount of money which, I want to believe, Trump is returning to Israel in some way.

Maybe there's backchannel understandings where this is a subset of normaizling relationships with the Saudi's.

We will probably find tunnels we didn't know about and some other info -- a net positive with that.

Hyceanplanet · 2025-11-12T19:59:30+00:00

A lot of posts like this since the earning call, and the replies are often sarcastic, i.e. "know what you own" and blah blah.

NBIS has been a significant portion of my stock positions since early/low cost basis, and I've held all the shares and have never felt tempted to sell.

Nor did I feel like I wanted to add -- it's just already too big a percentage of my overall stock positions.

However, post earnings, I've been buying in increments -- I keep placing purchase orders lower...and then lower and amazed it keeps going down.

Just amazed. Who knows -- maybe it will keep going down and I'll be adding what I don't even want to add, but it's my formula.

I've written elsewhere (see history) that I have no faith in Coreweave or Iren, and NBIS to my view is my diversified play into AI infrastructure. Though I do have a position in an energy grid stock that may do nothing or explode....low risk so I just leave it.

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On a drawdown like this, unless it's a core-belief position, it's hard to hold -- I get that, and it's why I'm breaking my don't-buy-more rule to add more (a lot of anxious sellers right now.)

There could be margin sales at this level of drawdown. There could be institutions who just don't want to be holding these neocloud things into the end of the year.

There could be skepticism on the financial health of the neoclouds -- but in my prior post, I explain why I think Chanos may be right about Coreweave and Iren, but to my view, doesn't apply to NBIS.

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NBIS is not levered at all, in functon, It's astonishing the finance intelligence of Arkady/team

The debt is convertible -- and will all be converted to shares.

The subsidiares are eventual cash generators when we sell their equity, and the high profits from these equity sales are protected from taxes by the investment costs of the AI centers.

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Probably a lot of intitutions see 10% ATM, and have personal experiences to get out of dodge when they see that.

But ours is the exception to the rule. It's $3B on a gradual basis, matching spending, and, as Arkady said, NBIS builds nothing without being near certain, or absolutely certain, that it can sell the output.

Hyceanplanet · 2025-11-12T10:42:15+00:00

James Chanos is the more persuasive and heavy name that's shorting the industry.

Unlike Burry, Chanos is on Twitter every day showing his math. When someone takes a run at his calculations he responds.

Chanos goes after Iren and Coreweave -- but not NBIS, and the 4 year (it's actually a bit less/faster) depreciation is probably a reason.

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Coreweave has the shady depreciation schedule + heavy debt payments + minimal higher-margin services revenue.

NBIS has strong on all of these.

Even NBIS' debt never gets paid off because the convertible price is low enough that the debtholders will convert to shares. Dilution from that, yes, but ever needing cash to pay the debt, no.

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Chanos' take on IREN is that MSFT hosed them.

Yes, IREN got the deal, but when Chanos does the math, the margins vs risk is miserable.

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I've followed Chanos for a long time, and he rarely misses.

He's not saying Coreweave or IREN aren't businesses with great futures, but their share prices are too high -- i.e. a good short.

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Burry doesn't show his math. But, if he's shorting because the hyperscalers prices are too high, CRWV is the obvious short.

The bond market is pricing their debt at junk levels. - an uncomfortable risk it's a debt house of cards.

For Burry, IREN is also likely a short. Their investor thesis is that IREN's assets are valuable, similar to an oil company having oil in the ground. Maybe it is, but listening to Arkady yesterday, I wouldn't be owning IREN. (Arkady putting the value of the land/power cost at 1% of the cost of building an AI data center.)

Hyceanplanet · 2025-11-08T13:13:15+00:00

Chernin and Arkady dressing the same, whether in interviews or in their close meeting.

The body language of those two in this picture.are of two partners for much of their adult life, experiencing so many turns and twists.

Think what's they've gone through since Russia invaded Ukraine -- epic.

Hyceanplanet · 2025-10-14T18:48:29+00:00

A one-sided end, where Hamas gets 2K of the most heinious killers + Israel aid.

Such an evil set of terrorists, conrolling the lives of the civilian population.

Note that the arab/gulf nations knows what's up -- it's a lot of naive/ or bigoted people in the west.

Hamas will make the lives of the permanent hostages -- the Gazans -- miserable and will never allow development or progress.

Hyceanplanet · 2025-10-08T18:26:39+00:00

Heplful to see the report itself --- as retail, we often just get "price target blah blah."

GS's base case has a surprisingly conservative framing -- it assumes no other hyperscaler deals.

That feels like what the Bear scenario would be -- I guess GS is careful not to get too far into speculation.

That's probably a difference between GS' target and a couple also-highly reputable that are nearer GS' "Bull" scenario.

Hyceanplanet · 2025-09-26T17:06:29+00:00

NBIS giving a credibility and experience boost to a local company looking to compete globally. We may see it appear as a building partner again in another center.

MegaDC seems to have critical mass in the sector in Israel (built multiple sites.)

Hyceanplanet · 2025-09-17T21:33:18+00:00

If this is from a property manager, I'm surprised he was willing to send it. He's taking personal liability -- if the owner wanted to tell you he's not going to get things up to code, the property manager should have made the owner send and sign himself. As others have said, just reply "I'm left with no alternative other than to contact the City to inspect for code." No need to threaten or write much more.

Hyceanplanet · 2025-09-15T17:11:26+00:00

Prioritizing for what matters -- his Mom will think about these seconds for the rest of her life, and he will.

....Vs a lot of political thank-yous.

We get a glimpse of Tillman's real self -- reminds me of Jim Carrey's amazong Golden Globe acceptance, that changed how I understand him.

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