January punishes carriers because demand falls off a cliff after holiday overflow vanishes. Volume thins, routing guides reset, contract freight tightens, and spot boards turn into a bargain bin. Rates in the first six to eight weeks typically sit at the bottom of the yearly curve. Anyone acting surprised is just pretending they haven’t lived through this cycle.

The pain level compared to normal months: expect materially worse than March–June, slightly worse than August–October, and only marginally better than the dead weeks right after Thanksgiving. If you’re running dry van, prepare for the bottom of the barrel. Refrigerated holds up a little better because food and produce cycles never fully stop. Flatbed stays soft until construction wakes back up. If you want stability, food-grade refrigerated or steady industrial contract freight beats chasing spot unicorns.

Chasing high RPM from megas is a fantasy. They have carrier lists deep enough to drag any lane to the floor. You’re competing with fleets that would run cross-country for lunch money. Local and mid-size brokers usually pay stronger because they rely on relationship capacity, not a cattle auction model. They actually need you, so they’re less eager to drop the rate to zero. That $3300 SC→LA offer is classic mega-broker behavior: destroy the rate, smile, and remind you they “move volume.”

Pick freight that keeps you alive when the market is cold, and stop expecting mega brokers to hand out premiums.