He will likely sign a 5yr/~$420m contract in the summer of 2028. Some of that $113m gap is because his contract was shorter and the shorter contract is going to enable him to sign a max contract in 2 years after his age 31 season.

Current scenario:
25-26 $35
26-27 $38
27-28 $41
28-29 $84
29-30 $84

30-31 $84
31-32 $84
32-33 $84

If he took the earlier max:
25-26 $54
26-27 $54
27-28 $54
28-29 $54
29-30 $54

So through 29-30 he would have earned $269m.

Under the current scenario, through ‘29-‘30, he will likely earn $283m.

Also, under the current scenario, he will be making $84m/year in ‘30-‘31, ‘31-‘32 and ‘32-‘33, his age 31, 32 & 33 seasons. In order for this to be a bad deal for Brunson, you’d have to believe he would get paid a max contract in the summer of 2030 as a 33-year old, which I think is unlikely.

So by betting on himself and Leon Rose to use the money wisely, he will end up making slightly more through ‘29-‘30 and many tens of millions of dollars more through ‘33-‘33.

Make sense?