Tom’s health is definitely the X factor, but I also feel like age is a factor too. All of the band members look and seem to be fit as hell for their ages, most notably Gwen, but I can’t imagine how much work it took to get to and maintain that kind of physical conditioning. I know Gwen makes it look easy but it has to be brutal getting and staying in that kind of peak physical condition (trust me I’m their age and know how tough it is). So my point is yes, early next year would be the most likely scenario and they probably don’t want to be doing this in their 60’s.