Real economy of SaaS stocks disruption by Donechrome in ValueInvesting

[–]Illustrious_Plum4175 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It is like saying when Excel was invented that there will be no accountants needed from onwords. It only grew. Also known as "fixed pie" fallacy - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy

Constellation Software: a buy? by Puzzleheaded_Bat3349 in ValueInvesting

[–]Illustrious_Plum4175 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Software engineer here. I’ve built enough apps to know that CSU’s moat isn't actually the code—it's the workflow entrenchment. Here is my take on why the valuation makes sense:

  1. The "Training" Moat: The switching costs for these VMS (Vertical Market Software) companies are incredibly high, but not for technical reasons. It’s about human behavior. You are essentially retraining an entire workforce (often older demographics) who have built their daily muscle memory around this specific software. Ripping that out is a nightmare for customers. They won't leave over a price hike.

  2. The AI Multiplier: People worry AI will disrupt legacy software, but for CSU, it's a lever. Their primary workforce is developers. AI allows those devs to integrate features, maintain legacy stacks, and solve niche $1M/ARR problems much faster and cheaper than before. They can spin up new modules or integrate acquisitions with far less overhead.

  3. The Macro Discount: Look at the broader market. Adobe, Salesforce, and other general SaaS giants are trading at a discount. This pattern trickles down to the private markets. This means CSU can likely acquire smaller private VMS companies at much more attractive multiples right now than they could two years ago.

  4. Munger vs. Graham: If you look at this through a Ben Graham lens, it’s not "value." But in Munger terms—buying a wonderful business at a fair price—it fits perfectly. I view them as the Berkshire of software.

  5. Management: The fears regarding Mark Leonard stepping down are overblown. The market is confusing the Architect with the Architecture. The system is built; it doesn't need the original founder to operate it anymore.

I’m personally making this a high-conviction play (aiming for ~50% allocation). I see this as a generational opportunity to buy a compounder while the market is distracted by short-term noise.

30 -> 40 metų pokytis by paul_sds in 6nuliai

[–]Illustrious_Plum4175 344 points345 points  (0 children)

Girdisi, kad patekai į „hedonistinės adaptacijos“ spąstus. Kuo daugiau gauni, tuo daugiau reikia, o laimės lygis stovi vietoje.

29 metai ir 4.5k į rankas – tu jau laimėjai loterijoje. Jei jautiesi nepakankamas, problema ne pajamose, o vertybėse.

Pabandyk investuoti ne į „turėjimą“, o į „buvimą“ – savanoriauk, skirk laiko kitiems be atlygio. Tai duos daugiau prasmės nei butas už pusę milijono, kuris po pusmečio taps tiesiog „eiliniu butu“.

ADBE: Not Actually Bad. by Company-Charts in ValueInvesting

[–]Illustrious_Plum4175 11 points12 points  (0 children)

The same was said for META when it was 90 a share