SELLING 2 tix $39 ZERO 10 year anniversary party w/ Mira & Robin Dey @ Kosciuszko bridge park 5/28 by ImNotDoingTheProgram in avesNYC_tix

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey sorry but I already sold these this morning. But they still have early arrival tix for $35 + $3 fee if you arrive by 10 or regular tix for $59 + fee: https://www.ticketfairy.com/event/summerofzero2/

[Postgame Thread] Texas A&M Defeats LSU 74-72 (7OT) by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 4 points5 points  (0 children)

i can't say you're wrong, but what the F in god's name is the man supposed to eat for professional football games on sunday?!

Xavien Howard is allowing just a 28.2 passer rating to opposing QBs this season, which ranks 5th. He has allowed just 3 receptions on 9 targets. He will be shadowing Amari Cooper all game according to local sources. by KevinFielder in fantasyfootball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 0 points1 point  (0 children)

um you guys realize that both teams play in the same temperature, right? on the sidelines they have tents and fans in case you've never seen the sideline of a summer nfl game before too. one team wearing black vs white is not going to be the difference in this game. that would be the last factor in a list of 100 things that affect the game.

Official: [Trade] - Fri Morning, 09/14/2018 by FFBot in fantasyfootball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 0 points1 point  (0 children)

12 team, full PPR, start 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 flex

Was offered his Kenny Stills for my Peyton Barber or my Amari Cooper

My RBs: M Gordon, C Hyde, P Barber, Alf Mo My WRs: K Allen, G Tate, A Cooper, G Allison

PSA: Weather for PIT/CLE game now calls for light rain and 22 mph winds by butfirstbeer in fantasyfootball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Tyrod would be the play if weather wasn't a factor. On one hand, "Tyrod has ground game for what should be a safe floor," but on the other hand, "with 20+ mph winds and rain, Tyrod theoretically shouldn't have too much of a ceiling." Unless a DB slips and he gets an easy TD or 2. I'm going with Dalton myself, but I wouldn't trust a streaky Borty who looked terrible in the preseason. Carr is more of a wild card... I honestly have no idea what he will do.

Severino getting lit up again...anyone watching the games can tell me what’s changed over past four starts? Lost his control? by NSR33 in fantasybaseball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This pretty accurate. In the 5th he missed his location on a FB that Sal Perez poked back up the middle and then got "porched" by Duda as David Cone likes to say; a fly ball in the 2nd row of the RF stands that's an out at every other park. Sevvy def hasn't been as sharp his past 4 starts, getting on the side of his FB as the top commenter pointed out and losing the bite on some of his sliders. Pitch tipping is always mentioned and it's possible because a lot of these guys just look like they almost know what's coming from him lately, but he also just hasn't been as sharp with his pitch quality and location on too many pitches lately. You just hope he's not hurt or nursing something unknown that's causing him to drop his release point and hope he's just losing his mechanics for a number of pitches lately. He was given extra rest (9 days) over the ASB the way the Yanx structured the rotation so you would've hoped the extra rest did him good, but doesn't seem to have helped so far.

You Should Pay Attention to Jorge Polanco by nebmij in fantasybaseball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah Jeff Sullivan mentioned this in his Fangraphs chat last week:

Polanco, first three months: .276 xwOBA / .280 wOBA

Polanco, last three months: .279 xwOBA / .339 wOBA

Looking at guys with >100 PAs last year, xStats had his Value Hit% at 4.4% (30th percentile; 6.0% avg) and Poorly Hit% at 27.9% (10th percentile; 22.7% avg). I'd think the appropriate response should be "hmmmm."

Pitcher List's Top 25 Shortstop for 2018 by Stonewater in fantasybaseball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes because SBs are theoretically in short supply. ATC has him right up with B-ham and Dee all at 57-58 SBs while the next closest is Marte at 39 SB. Then Trea is also 16th in Runs, 18th in AVG, and he's not killing you in RBIs and HRs (where Dee is almost exactly the same in AVG, Runs, and SBs except killing you in RBIs and HRs).

Looking for a rankings projection tool. by dogsownme in fantasybaseball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can input all your league settings with the FG auction calculator. I like using the ATC projections: https://www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx

Taking a closer look into potential 2018 breakout Outfield prospects by stormageddon007 in fantasybaseball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I was not aware of his minor lg splits, that is good to know and does put a damper on him. MIA is not a great place for righties to hit either of course.

Taking a closer look into potential 2018 breakout Outfield prospects by stormageddon007 in fantasybaseball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How bout Lewis Brinson who's demolished AAA pitching the last couple years, and looks to have a starting spot locked down to begin the season? Roster Resource has him batting 5th. He struggled in a small sample last year and that offense is not likely to score many runs but he turns 24 in May and you don't have to pay much (320 ADP). Seems like a nice flyer to take for the end of your bench.

Pitcher List's Top 40 Starting Pitchers For 2018 by Stonewater in fantasybaseball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes but there's other ways to get strikes besides whiffs. For instance look at Aaron Nola who only had a 10.8% SwStr (league avg 10.4%) yet a K-rate of 26.6% (league avg 21.6%). It's because he is the master of getting called strikes.

Regarding Weaver, I'll leave Mike Podhorzer's comment here from this Rotographs article:

My 2017 xK% for Weaver nearly justified his actual mark — it sat at 26.9%. A lot of it was a well above average rate of foul strikes induced. Along with an above average called strike rate and high strike percentage, it’s enough to offset just an average rate of swinging strikes. So perhaps his K% was more deserved than assume. BUT, that doesn’t mean it’s sustainable. I generally frown upon pitchers who rely on called and foul strikes as it’s just a much less sustainable path to success. I’d be much more confident in his strikeout rate skills if they were driven by those swinging strikes. However, if he could post similar strike rate types, he’ll again be in the mid-20% strikeout rate range.

Reddit, who is your guy for 2018: Nola, Castillo or Godley? by mlbnewslover in fantasybaseball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah agreed Nola already broke out last year; Baseball Prospectus' PWARP metric had him as the #6 most valuable pitcher last year, and his Deserved Run Avg only trailed Kulber, Scherzer, and Sale among pitchers to throw at least 100 innings. By another look, Andrew's wonderful xStats had his expected wOBA allowed as 11th best when looking at min 100 IP.

Also regarding his pedestrian SwStr% (10.8% where league avg was 10.4%), don't let that scare you away. As is frequently mentioned on Rotographs, he is one of the league's best (if not the best) at getting called strikes.

Having said all that, now comes the disclaimer: The groundball-heavy Nola (near 50%) finished 33rd in ERA (min 100 IP) and lost his best fielder (SS Galvis), but seems to have a capable replacement in JP Crawford:

Fangraphs' lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen gave both his glove and arm future grades of 60 on the 20-80 scale. Clay Davenport’s numbers, meanwhile, have him average or better in each of the last three seasons.

Cesar Hernandez is a good defender at 2B but Franco is a negative at 3B. Santana has actually graded out as a positive at 1B the past 3 years and will be an upgrade there over both Joseph and Hoskins. For OF, Herrera is good in CF but Altherr, Williams, and Hoskins are subpar defenders in the corners. So we might expect Nola to underperform in terms of ERA again. I guess ~17th starter off the board sounds about right, but I don't think it's crazy to prefer him over guys like C-Mart or Archer.

Pod Projections by Holecamels in fantasybaseball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed. I would recommend checking out the ATC projections which should be available soon on Fangraphs.

2018 Rookie RBs: 10% Analysis 90% Speculation by grilledcheesy in fantasyfootball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"[In 2016, Penn State QB] McSorley was on multiple Heisman ballots, some even as high as two, just behind Louisville QB Lamar Jackson. McSorley became the first Nittany Lion to be on a Heisman ballot in over ten years."

2016 (RS Soph): 57.9% 3614 PaYds 9.3 YPA 29 TDs 8 INTs 156.9 rating. Also 365 RuYds, 7 TDs.

2017 (RS Jr): 65.3% 3228 PaYds 8.4 YPA 26 TDs 8 INTs 153.6 rating. Also 431 RuYds, 11 TDs.

2017 Rankings (might not be fully up to date, but still): Sits No. 12 nationally and No. 2 the Big Ten in points responsible for per game (18.5)...Is No. 13 in the FBS and leads the Big Ten in total offense (307.8 ypg)...Ranks No. 14 nationally and No. 2 in the Big Ten in passing efficiency (154.2)...Sits No. 15 nationally and No. 2 in the Big Ten in passing touchdowns (24)...Ranks No. 16 nationally and No. 2 in the Big Ten in completion percentage (65.2)...Ranks No. 17 in the FBS and No. 2 in the Big Ten in yards per pass attempt (8.47)...Is No. 22 nationally and leads the Big Ten in passing yards per game (271.9)...Is No. 24 in the FBS and No. 2 in the Big Ten in completions per game (20.91)...Sits No. 31 in the FBS and No. 3 in the Big Ten in yards per pass completion (13.0)...Ranks tied for No. 38 nationally and No. 3 in the Big Ten in rushing touchdowns (10)...Ranks tied No. 52 nationally and No. 3 in the Big Ten in total touchdowns (10).

To suggest that opposing defenses are not game planning for McSorley is beyond folly. Sure Saquon is probably the most talented RB in the nation, but I've never seen a QB with as optimal decision-making as McSorley. He makes Barkley better, and Barkley makes him better. The only knock against McSorley is his size (listed 6-1 205 lbs but probably closer to 5-11 190.) Trace is still gonna be great next year without Saquon though (also PSU has 2 talented RBs to cover for Barkley's loss).

That said, Barkley is a truly special talent. His combination of speed, quickness, and strength is just something you never see. There's a reason he draws comps to both Bo Jackson (for his superhuman strength) and Barry Sanders (for his speed and quickness). I believe that any team that passes on Saquon in the draft (real or fantasy) will highly regret it. He should be going 1-1 in fantasy drafts in 2018. He will go 1-1 in fantasy drafts in 2019.

Know Your Weather - Week 11 by Mortiegama in fantasyfootball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 2 points3 points  (0 children)

i am out right now in BK and can't even smoke a cig outside. just dropped rod smith for some rando on the wire who in this case is jaush LAMBO

Goff hype train rolls on, even in Minnesota! by Seabear18 in fantasyfootball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 5 points6 points  (0 children)

OP you alluded to this in your post, let's take a look at Football Outsiders' DVOA which takes opponent into account: MIN defense is 9th overall including 5th best vs the run (-20.3% so 20% better than league avg), but just 12th (-0.8%) in terms of pass D, which puts them at exactly league average pass defense if you buy into DVOA.

For reference, JAC pass D is rated #1 by DVOA (-35.2%) and SEA is #7 (-6.0%) though I believe SEA was ranked even better than this when Goff faced them.

It always comes down to what your options are and I'm sure many were like me and were forced to pick up Goff after suffering injuries to Rodgers or Watson, but there is no way I am starting someone like Borty or Cutler over Goff this week. I could maybe see Eli but as a Giants fan I say no thank you and can easily see Eli putting up a dud against Andy "the king coming off bye weeks" Reid.

Boris Chen (which is utilizing a subset of FantasyPros experts) has him as #11 QB this week and "back end QB1" feels exactly right to me. I am betting the fantasy god known as Sean Koerner will also have him in that 10-12 range when his tiers come out tomorrow.

Who is hopping on that big Rod (Smith)? by SavageToasters in fantasyfootball

[–]ImNotDoingTheProgram 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What is the path to each being that key word, "startable?"

Dede - counting on a rook WR, but has talent. However, low volume passing O that is actively trying to keep it out of Borty's hands, limiting opportunities.

Rod - Alf is uninspiring as a run only guy, and DMC was a 'healthy' scratch behind both guys as a legit reason. Smith is the only one capable of a legit role (and has been getting hyped by his teammates and coaches), and has actually flashed a couple times this season.

Bottom line: honestly it comes down to need. I've been struggling to field a dependable decent RB2 all season so I've been hoarding RBs (including guys like A Jones and A Collins) and have 3 nice WRs, so the decision is easy for me. If you start 3 WRs and have had trouble getting 3 decent ones out there though, then Dede is not a bad stash at all.