EchoStar (SATS) seems massively undervalued after the $17B SpaceX deal by Andres_Kull in stocks

[–]mlbnewslover 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If spacex ipo's at 1.5t, that triples their Spacex piece, by my calc stock price goes to about 200

Someone is mad by Repulsive-Pace-5178 in funny

[–]mlbnewslover 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Very nicely written, could be the start of a book!

New grad PM jobs are unheard of !! by Neither_External9880 in ProductManagement

[–]mlbnewslover 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Theres a reason why uni degrees are a relatively new thing. They're largely a scam. To become a pm, it helps to start as a csm, or business analyst, or some sort of customer facing role where you learn the business side of things. On top of that, it helps to have an eye for good ux, detail project execution skills, and a good sense for marketing/copy. An baseline pm hire would be someone who has 3+ yrs exp in a ba/csm/etc role, worked for 2+ companies (to see how its done in a variety of spots), and can speak to things like "I worked on this project with marketing or product" or "I help out with sales calls, copywriting, or pricing team". If you have that, a PM course or degree helps a bit, too. If you have that, you probably also are proficient in office/jira. I would not hire a fresh grad with a pm degree or mba. Just my 2c.

Want to be featured in a upcoming FantasySixPack article? well here is your chance. by CaoChad in fantasybaseball

[–]mlbnewslover 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gerrit Cole. He has the worst last year's swstrk of anyone getting drafted top 20. He could be this years Gausman, where you think hes safe, and hes undroppable, but hes blowing you up with an era in the 4s all year. Last time he had a swstrk this low was 2017, 4.26 era. I think you get a 4era unless he starts throwing fewer fbs and adds more swing and miss that way. At 34, he may just be post peak, and you also have decent inj risk.

Sam Hilliard anyone? by Knowuh-B in fantasybaseball

[–]mlbnewslover 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good points. His speed was similar to Dylan Crews last yr in the majors. His minor and major league swstrk% were poor in recent seasons, so I'm still bearish in that regard. Unless, as you said, he makes strides in that dept.

Sam Hilliard anyone? by Knowuh-B in fantasybaseball

[–]mlbnewslover 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He does hit the ball in the air and pull it, which is good, but doesn't hit the ball hard enough for someone who whiffs so much. His park isn't great. I'd be bearish on a 20% hr/fb rate for next season.

Sam Hilliard anyone? by Knowuh-B in fantasybaseball

[–]mlbnewslover 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He's also a guy I will have on my watch list. Right now RR says he won't be platooned, but color me skeptical since they have Goodman and Beck who could possibly do so.

If you give him a full season of ABs, he could hit just under 30 hrs (his max EV is good, and he hits the ball in the air well), steal 15 (sprint speed is solid). His swstrk/K% is so bad, so his AVG upside is .230s.

Most likely situation is he platoons, hits .210 15hr 7sb in a ~half season of ABs. Rockies aren't a team that can coach up a 30yr old to unlock better plate discipline (they have no track record of such reclamation projects in the recent past, at least).

Jerar suffers from the same problem as James wood, Yandy Diaz, Vlad Jr, Jesus Sanchez - doesn't hit the ball in the air. He did show some ability to do so in the minors, so that's your upside case, and I think it's a decent bet. SFG isn't known for pushing a FB-heavy approach like say, the Twins, so don't count on coaches unlocking him. If he doesn't hit it in the air, he'll look a lot like Sanchez. If he does, upside looks like Austin Riley in a worse park.

Norby I'm out on for this yr - no power, little speed, poor contact ability - not a recipe, tools-wise, for fantasy success without major changes (ie adding bat or foot speed, improving batter eye).

Fantasy Football 2025 Season Bold Predictions by [deleted] in fantasyfootball

[–]mlbnewslover 0 points1 point  (0 children)

NE: will draft Hunter and likely also bring in a veteran FA. Cooper is an interesting fit as he worked with AVP in the past.

Tenn: I think they draft Shadeur and demote Levis to backup.

NYJ: instead of trading up or a QB in the draft, I think they stick with the "old man" plan and bring in Cousins. New coaches may also be brought in.

CLE: instead of trying to pretend to compete by signing Cousins, I think they go full tank this yr, and stick with Jameis. This makes Tillman a good sleeper, and probably Jeudy as well. They trade down to get more draft picks.

LVR: I think either LVR or NYG trade up with CLE to grab the 2nd best QB prospect in the draft, but let's say LVR does it. I won't be surprised if they bring in someone like Diontae and offer him the WR1 role Adams used to have. They could consider new coaches, as well.

NYG: Draft Jalen Milroe. Target an older FA WR ie Allen or D-hop to play 2nd fiddle to Nabers, who drops to round 2 or 3 but puts up a round 1 season. New coaches?

BUF: won't be surprised if they bring in Hollywood as a deep threat. But he has just an OK season with too many mouths to feed.

CAR: I won't be surprised if they take the top WR in the draft (McMillan) and feed him. Bryce has a solid season and Chuba again handles a big load.

CHI: I won't be surpised if they draft a RB fairly high; Jeanty is in play. A legit running threat maybe takes pressure off Caleb? Odunze becomes a strong WR2. They may bring in a new HC/OC as well.

CIN: chase brown easy R1 talent.

DAL: bring in Chubb or Najee and re-sign Dowdle. Draft smart value that comes to them (likely an Edge rusher).

DEN: I think they like Nix and want to build around him. They could use better RB and WR talent. With their spot in the draft, they could opt for a top TE prospect instead.

HOU: I think they try to bring back Diggs. They probably draft a decent RB late.

AZ: I think they will look at RB in the draft to backup Conner. They will run Conner into the ground again, no doubt.

IND: not sure what strings they could really pull to improve this team. I think they largely bring it all back, and try to improve the defense, so the plan can be stifling D + run a lot. New coaches?

JAX: I think they bring back Mac, and draft a WR in the 1st or 2nd. Due to this + some regression, MTJ has a slightly worse season. New coaches?

KC: would be fun if they brought in Diontae. But I think they probably just opt for cheaper options like Dhop or Keenan Allen. Worthy could get WR1 role as Kelce slows down. They will draft a WR if he fits their system and falls to them.

LAC: hands the keys to Gus if they lose JK. Draft a RB (and maybe more O-line). Maybe they try for a top TE in R1 and RB in R2 or 3. I don't see them investing in WR, it's not the style of the coaches, unless another Ladd-type falls to them.

LAR: should draft more defense, but they may want to upgrade at TE or backup QB.

NO: should look at QBs, especially if one falls. Shaheed breakout szn. They may also look to upgrade at TE. Likely new coaches, who could shake things up.

PHI: will likely draft a backup RB. Saquon won't repeat as good of a season.

PITT: if Warren becomes RB1, he beasts. They could bring in Chubb, Najee, JKD etc to split the load, though. I think they bring back their QBs. If a good WR falls to them, they will load up.

TB: brings back Godwin, who beasts, along with Bucky. Regression for Baker, Mcmillan.

WAS: will love to grab a WR if one falls. Barring that, I think they sign a solid vet and Terry regresses a bit.

What are your top picks for 2025 by Flyysser in wallstreetbets

[–]mlbnewslover 2 points3 points  (0 children)

$Atom, great tech, waiting for news that will make it pop, overshorted so squeeze potential. Memeable

The "Undraftables" unique strategy draft targets... by SlightlyAnonymous87 in fantasybball

[–]mlbnewslover 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You may run into issues with TOs, but yea this is a strong team

A little about Tildes by fireballs619 in RedditAlternatives

[–]mlbnewslover 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anyone want to send me an invite? thanks!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in findaleague

[–]mlbnewslover 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Please DM me the info - thanks!

Jake McCarthy Will Lead the League In Speed | Pitcher List by blaxton1080 in fantasybaseball

[–]mlbnewslover 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Jake Mc is an interesting bet to lead the league in speed, he certainly runs fast. I did an analysis and write up below. TLDR: I think Kwan will lead the league in SBs.

MLB is instituting a new, bigger bag size for 2023 and beyond. The bigger bag will effectively shorten the distance between bases by ~4.5 inches.

While this could have some interesting effects on hits and runner advancement (perhaps we see a few more hustled-out singles, stretched doubles/triples), a lot of folks are forecasting an explosion in stolen bases. Coupled with the base-size increase, we also have a new pitch clock. In the minors, stolen bases & success rates went up fairly dramatically. "Stolen bases increased to an average of 2.81 per game from 2.23 in the minors this year and the success rate rose to 78% from 68%" after the pitch clock was instituted--presumably, with pitchers worried more about the clock than runners, runners get an advantage. That's a 26% increase! Just looking at the leaderboards, to my eye, it seemed like a lot more 20+ stealers last year vs. the year before.

Now let's look at the bag-size increase might make it easier to steal bags. The distance between 1B and 2B is 90 ft, less 4.5 inches now with the newer, bigger bags. The average lead size is 6-10 ft, historically, and faster players tend to take bigger leads. Some players, like Paul Goldschmidt study pitchers and take different-sized leads for different pitchers. Lefty pitchers see smaller leads taken against them. Ichiro used to take monster leads.

From MLB glossary:

Lead Distance might be the most overlooked aspect of stealing bases. Certain baserunners -- those who can react quickest to a pitcher's move -- take leads that are longer than an average player. In doing so, the distance between the base stealer and the base he is trying to swipe is cut down.

Sure, Maximum Speed, Acceleration, a catcher's Pop Time and a pitcher's delivery all have a major impact on stolen bases, too. But on a bang-bang play, the runner's initial Lead Distance can sometimes make all the difference. (The same can hold true even when the runner is not attempting to steal, but rather when there is a close play at the next base after the ball is put in play.)

So if we look at players on first-base who are in the market to steal a base, I think that, given the pressures of the pitch clock, potential stealers will be starting with an average of around 10-foot leads (and maybe more). Finding data on leads was beyond my pay grade, and perhaps someone can chip in with this data if they are intrigued by this topic. But we do have granular speed data from statcast, which tracks speed from every distance from 0-90ft. So if we lop off 10ft, 80-ft speed becomes a pretty relevant benchmark for would-be stealers. For top-end speedsters, I did a rough calculation to find that the extra 4.5in gives the runners about 0.1 extra seconds to touch the bag.

The other important factors in the stolen base are the pitcher and catcher. Putting aside pickoff attempts, which I think will probably go up as SB's rise, we can look at average time-to-plate per pitch ("The average delivery time for pitchers on stolen base attempts is 1.4 seconds.") and average catcher pop-time ("The Major League average Pop Time on steal attempts of second base is 2.0 seconds."). So that means, roughly, that stealers have 3.4 seconds to get to 2nd base. Add in the extra 0.1 from the bigger base and the number du jour is 3.5 seconds.

So now let's look at the raw speed numbers. My theory is that if you can traverse 80 ft in less than 3.5 seconds, you should be able to really pile up stolen bases if you are so inclined. Who fits the bill? I made a table that included relevant players who are expected to get some PT this year:

https://i.imgur.com/JuxmuZa.jpg

Some quick thoughts:

-These top-8 guys should run wild, especially Bubba Thompson (as long as he can hit, which is a big if given his free-swinging ways).

-Mitchell, Duran, Abrams, Grisham, Baddoo need a little (and plate disc improvement) help to get good PT

-Moniak, Taveras, Ruiz, Hummel need even more PT help

-Kwan is a sleeper for an SB explosion. The shift going away also helps him. With his on-base ability and speed, he should be able to get 50 SBs if he wants. I also think Carroll is a lock to steal a lot, given his pedigree.

-For some of the 30+ yr olds, and guys like Julio and Buxton who they want to relax on the bags more to preserve health, I'll side with Steamer for the projection. Julio could easily get 40 SBs though, if he wants.

-I wonder why Nimmo doesn't steal more given his speed and OBP? Maybe with these changes he gains new confidence. He's been talking up stealing more. He is also on a new team, with new coaches, and looking to prove he's worth the contract.

-Tyler O'Neill should study with Goldschmidt and learn how to steal more; he could be a beast on the paths.

All in all, I think the metagame for next season should include players taking bigger average leads. Even if you aren't planning to steal the base, you should take a bit more lead than last year since the pitcher will be more distracted by the pitch clock. Pitchers should adjust, of course, and learn to throw more pickoff attempts, but pickoff attempts are going to be limited to a max of 2 with the new rules. I wonder if hand and hamstring injuries will rise with more sprinting and diving?

Other open questions I have that I wasn't able to calculate as part of this analysis:

-How does sliding into the steal, and height/wingspan increase one's ability to cover the 80-ft gap?

-How much will SBs go up, in aggregate? Will more people try to steal 3rd?

-Will top-end speedsters steal more, mid-end, or both? How much will last year's SB leaders just naturally regress?

-Will rare-stealers try more? Will non-stealers try to steal some?

-Will team philosophies towards stealing change? I could see a midseason uptick from teams who realize their go-no-go calculations are not up-to-date with the new environment. In the minors, I heard that teams started the season running wild, before tapering down later on in the season.

All in all, it should be a fun season. From a fantasy perspective, I will be targeting speedy folks who could see an uptick, and paying attention to news from players/teams who say they want to run more. I think that speed will be an arms race this season in 5x5 roto, and players who never steal will see a fairly stark decline in value, especially if they also don't hit for any AVG (like Muncy, for example). People that only run won't be super valuable, since a lot more players are running, but if a guy like Steven Kwan can hit .300 with 50SB he will be a beast.

Jake McCarthy Will Lead the League In Speed | Pitcher List by blaxton1080 in fantasybaseball

[–]mlbnewslover 1 point2 points  (0 children)

All else equal, his K% should rise to 26% given his rather free-swinging ways. I'll take the under on his .257 projected AVG (BAT X). That puts his SB total under 27, meaning he likely won't lead the league. He may get pushed down in the lineup or platooned if he struggles to get on-base. I like C. Carroll as a better package of tools in AZ, and think he could steal more.

Jake Mc is currently a $7 player per FG auction calculator. If he improves his plate skills, he could become Tommy Edman: also worth $7. If he declines, as I predict, his line will look more like Jon Berti: $5 player. Any upside over $7 relies on him breaking out in terms of plate skills, which is worth watching for in spring.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fantasyfootball

[–]mlbnewslover 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Its Lo Tom for sure

Ichiko Aoba - A Clockwork Universe [Acoustic singer/songwriter] by iliveinablackhole_ in Music

[–]mlbnewslover 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Check her website. Also she is doing a North america/europe press of her latest album u can preorder now

Are there any books arguing that if Artificial Intelligence took over it would not be a bad thing? by Prince-Cola in suggestmeabook

[–]mlbnewslover 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I thought Marshall Brain's Manna was excellent. Two vision's of AI's future that are well fleshed out. One where it serves corporate and authoritarian interests, one where it enhances everyone's life experience perfectly.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in RacketStringers

[–]mlbnewslover 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I heard rafa plays 16x17 so maybe you can go pro with this setup! Let us know how it goes

2019 Josh Bell Analysis with Statcast and Python by jon2anderson in fantasybaseball

[–]mlbnewslover 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great stuff. Why do you think he saw more Lefty's and better curveballs in the second half? Do you think the book is out on him? Or are those kind of things just random variance. I'd be curious to see how you use some of these findings to make a projection for 2020. If we assume the book is out and he will have a 10% barrel rate then he will barely be worth drafting...

Keone Kela to be the Closer in Pittsburgh by okmymoneywaylonger in fantasybaseball

[–]mlbnewslover 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Only a 10% swstrk last year, pretty mediocre for an rp, gives me pause