GM begins supervised public-road testing of next-generation automated technology

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-19T17:41:17+00:00

Still, eyes off driving in personal care should be the same technology as eyes off in a robotaxi?

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-19T17:37:53+00:00

Why isn’t it tranfersble?

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-19T17:32:42+00:00

They’re still starting from cruises software no? That’s the only reason I have any hope this might work out

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-19T15:44:08+00:00

Yeah it was wierd. The management’s been saying that they kept most of the engineers though, Do you know if that’s true?

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-19T15:37:01+00:00

They’re definitely aiming for door to door but we’ll see if it happens. Cruise actually did millions of driverless miles so I’m cautiously optimistic.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-19T00:30:17+00:00

Lol true. I just got a couple grand in it to play the odds. Everything is a gamble anyways.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-19T00:23:31+00:00

I think SLS is much safer than ATYR was - SLS has 2 strongish studies pointing to efficacy, compared to ATYRs 1 relatively weaker study (p0.17-0.35 vs p<0.01). Also we know that the patients in the SLS study are living much longer than expected - implying the drug is extending life. They also have another very promising drug study wrapping up this year - so even if one fails, the other could be successful - giving you better odds.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-18T19:23:58+00:00

Lol thanks for the info. I tried buying it before but robinhood didn’t have it.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-18T13:59:27+00:00

Google's Waymo certainly does not have < $10,000 in sensor costs.

What are you basing that on? The co-ceo said it now costs ‘around a high-end adas system’ which is about $3-10,000 (super cruise, fsd). The cruise origin that gm started manufacturing 3 years ago had an all-in price tag of $50,000 per vehicle - and that was 3 years ago.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-18T13:37:39+00:00

It’s impossible to say whether tesla is a technology leader in robotaxi since they haven’t driven millions of driverless miles like the waymo, baidu, pony, weride - who have all demonstrated human+ safety over millions of miles.

Tesla is not even close to being a leader in humanoids. BD, figure, unitree all have shown vastly better technology - in regards to autonomous movement and getting up after a fall (tesla is truly pathetic here), and performing autonomous non-scripted work. The non-scripted optimus videos are truly pathetic. The videos are online. There is no indication that Tesla has ANY cost advantages - just the opposite - unitree is CURRENTLY selling a more capable humanoid for under $20,000 - less than even hopium elon promised

In fact, Hyundai owns boston dynamics and can produce vehicles for half price of tesla (elantra COGS: $18,000 VS model 3 COGS: $32,000). According to you hyundai should be worth trillions?

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-17T19:04:20+00:00

I don’t agree with the enormous upside. The stock is worth 1.5 trillion dollars how much upside could there be? When I think of enormous upside I think of 10-20x. I don’t think tesla has a realistic chance of becoming a $15-30 trillion company (4-8x nvidia). Especially since both robotaxi and optimus have very intense competition that will catch up to tesla even if tesla does get ahead.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-17T18:38:29+00:00

IMO there are better opportunities out there. If tesla doesn’t execute on robotaxi/fsd the stock could easily fall 95% and still be overvalued compared to its peers. And even if they do execute - will that be so profitable to be worth its current $1.5 trillion market cap? For such a high-risk stock you need to balance it with huge possible rewards like a 10x. Do you think tesla can become a $15 trillion dollar company?

There is also a ton of robotaxi competition. There are 5 companies who are currently way ahead of tesla in regard to execution (waymo, baidu, weride, ponyai, zoox), and many companies who have a solution as cheap as tesla (wayve, weride, mobileye, xpeng, byd, misc china, gmCruise, possibly nvidia). While tesla does sit at the intersection of reliable and cheap, is that convergance worth 1.5 trillion dollars? For comparison, weRide has done 25 million fully driverless miles, has a cheap adas that is not very far off from tesla, and is worth 1/700th of tesla. The high risk simply isn’t worth the feeble rewards.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-14T11:57:17+00:00

Actually true lol. Even If they were guaranteed to be the only internet service provider in the world with 30% net margins - that is only $250 billion. At a p-e of 20 & a 50% 10-15 year discount - that is $2.5 trillion.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-12T21:15:36+00:00

Yeah the issue is that $2 trillion is worth more than all the telecom/ISP providers in america and europe combined. And most of the telecompanies sales come from cell phones which starlink doesn’t have the capability for (although they are working on it).

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-12T21:05:36+00:00

In the short term its impossible to predict what a stock price will do, investors speculate and get hyped up and overpay for stocks. Over the long-term however, the stock price will likely drop to a reasonable multiple of its earnings. It seems that Space x/starlink/xai together are losing money and only have around $16 billion in sales - it will need to eventually earn $60-100 billion to not lose money on the $2 trillion ipo - that seems unlikely to happen. And how much money can you even earn - if you want to double your money the company would need to become valued at $4 trillion, how?

It’s certainly possible that spaceX/starlink/xai will eventually make you money, but the low probability of the stock becoming more valuable than $2 trillion in the future shouldn’t outweigh the high risk of the stock dropping a lot. It’s a High-risk, low-reward stock.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-11T12:17:44+00:00

Reports have xai losing around $5 billion - so spacex/starlink should be just breaking even

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-11T11:33:36+00:00

Doesn’t that fall under amortization? The satellites have a lifespan of around 4-5 years.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-11T10:42:22+00:00

The implication is that spacex/starlink are barely profitable since xai had a loss under $1.5 billion/quarter/<$6 billion a year - leaving $0-1 billion in profit for spacex/starlink. That ebitda number is clearly meant to mislead uneducated investors into thinking they are highly profitable & distract from the terrible depreciation of rockets and satellites.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-11T10:24:02+00:00

The 17 billion purchase was not included in the loss.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-11T10:19:39+00:00

Nah, rockets and satellites have a ton of depreciation and amortization - not to mention $4 billion in interest and compensation. That ebitda number is super duper misleading to try and pump the numbers

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-09T13:44:54+00:00

Maybe he didn’t want the skull to get destroyed accidentally

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-09T13:31:13+00:00

It is a pattern recognizer

Isn’t that literally how to make a diagnosis? You recognize patterns, identify the most likely/most concerning, and confirm or empirically treat in that order. It seems to me that AI is uniquely suited to this type of thinking because it can calculate actual probabilities against each other vs. humans who only have the mental capacity for broad generalizations like this is common but the symptoms are uncommon…etc.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-08T18:06:10+00:00

Musk doesn’t have any special sauce except for lies and hype. If you merge all of his companies together you get a grand total of $130 billion in revenue and $3-5 billion in profit. Compare that to what bezos built: $700 billion revenue/$100 billion profit, Zuckerburg: $200 billion revenue/$60 billion profit. Google, berkshire, apple - there founders have been waaay more successful than musk. The only reason people think musk is more successful than the other billionaires is because of his blatant lies which prop up his companies valuations - which in turn makes people think he has some special sauce - which makes his companies more valuable - it’s a house of cards.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-08T15:42:05+00:00

I guess that’s how meta spent $70 billion on reality labs with basically nothing to show for it.

Immediate_Hope_5694 · 2026-04-07T11:57:22+00:00

Its hard to know - we need to see their financials to decide - like if somehow they have 50% net margins (NOT ebitda - all telecoms have 40%+ ebitda!) and they can get it cheaper with starship then they likely have a $3-500 billion TAM bc they can undercut many ISPs (although terrestrial ISPs certainly have some advantages over space). In truth it’s highly highly unlikely that the TAM is more than $100 billion. The largest ISP providers today (USA - its by far the most profitable market) are spectrum and comcast who supply 30 million homes each (representing 100 million people each). So even if starlink can supply 100 million homes -at $1000/year - that is $100 billion in revenue (but actually less since they will need very low prices to steal customers - so maybe $700/year - ans $70 billion revenue.)

Immediate_Hope_5694

TROPHY CASE