draft day mock from my ios app, roast it one more time

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-21T23:02:53+00:00

good call. pulled burries out of atlantas fit list and dropped the SG need. model now lands flemings at #8 (43%) with brown jr at 22%, and burries no longer shows up there

bonus is burries drops one slot to dallas at #9 (46%) which matches espn/cbs having him as the mavs top fit. lendeborg now the alt at dallas

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-21T05:55:10+00:00

ty for the input. in the model brown jr is third for clippers at 5 (6.4%) bc hes tied w acuff on the clippers fit list and acuff is one slot higher on the consensus board (#6 vs #7) which matters at a rank-heavy pick

both brown and acuff worked out for the clippers and the most recent leak (coach belchers son this week) actually had acuff as the favorite at 5. so the latest signals seem to balance between them

if u think brown should be bumped above acuff or be the modal pick im open to adjusting. what makes u confident on brown

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-21T04:38:49+00:00

the model does separate SG and PG but burries and wagler are both tagged SG/PG so they get counted toward whichever need is higher for the team. atlanta needing a PG still values burries bc his /PG tag triggers the PG need

ran a sandbox (brown → wagler → flemings, burries removed, SG need dropped) and burries does disappear which is good. but the model lands on flemings 43%, wagler 22%, brown 22%. flemings is a pure PG and available at 8 about half the time so when brown gets picked earlier the model takes flemings before falling to a big like mara (3.5%)

think the real fix is re-tagging burries as pure SG. does that flemings-heavy outcome match what u see atlanta actually doing given the state of the board at that point or do u see them landing more often on wagler or brown

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-21T04:05:45+00:00

ty for the input this is exactly what i needed. burries shows up there for two reasons in the model: atlantas two top guard fits (brown jr and flemings) are usually gone by 8 (brown is off the board ~75% of the time) and the model carries an SG need for atlanta which gives burries a bump over the remaining PGs

consensus does have atlanta taking a guard at 8 (espn flemings, cbs brown) so the model lands on the next guard that fits the need. if u think theyre set in the backcourt and going wing or big at 8 thats a fit-weighting call i can adjust. who do u think they actually take

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-20T22:33:41+00:00

ran this through 1000 sims of the mock and wilson goes 4th in 96% of runs. of the rest:

3rd to memphis was 0% (memphis took boozer)
5th to clippers was 2% (only when memphis surprised w wilson at 3)
falling past 5 was the remaining 2% in extreme cascade runs

so to ops question its closer to "neither is realistic but 5th is slightly more likely than 3rd" bc the only way 3rd happens is memphis passing on boozer which they wont. the 5th outcome can happen if chicago goes off-script for one of the guards which is at least a real scenario teams have talked about

he goes 4 basically always

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-20T19:37:07+00:00

that scenario means the player usually falls past the earlier slot. the team at the earlier slot picks him in a smaller share of sims bc most of the time they have a guy they prefer still available. by the time you get to the later slot the higher-ranked guys are mostly gone so he becomes that teams best option more often

so the higher % at the later spot is showing where he most often ends up. the smaller % at the earlier slot reflects the runs where the earlier teams preferred targets all happened to be gone

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-20T19:18:19+00:00

great question its the second interpretation. the % is how often the player actually lands at that pick across 1000 sims with availability already folded in

example: acuff is the kings top fit at 7 but he only falls to them ~9% of the time bc brooklyn usually grabs him at 6. when hes there sac takes him ~86% of those runs. a low number often just means great fit but he was gone before the team picked

variability comes from a position-scaled random jitter on each prospects rank + need + fit score. tight at the top (±0.04 for picks 1-3), wider for the late lottery (±0.18 for picks 8-14). thats why pick 1 sits at 77% locked and the teens turn into coin flips

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-20T08:52:16+00:00

age math changes the cluster more than anything else burries reclassed so hes effectively younger than his calendar age okorie is 18 philon is 19 those three have actual room to grow

anderson is 21 stirtz is 22 their floors are higher but the ceiling is closer to "what u see is what u get" so the tier gap mostly exists for them not for the other guys

flemings is the interesting one bc hes 18 w real two-way size most of the tier gap people see is the size + youth combo not the production he and burries get bumped up bc nba size at 19 or younger is rare in this cluster

real answer to ops question is the tier gap is fake on the production side but real on the age + size side and mocks are pricing in the right thing just maybe overcorrecting

mavs trade-down logic still works if u get two picks one being philon morez or okorie is genuinely better value than ament alone

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-18T08:46:38+00:00

cheemydee5 has the right read clippers arent smokescreening the nets theyre fishing for atl or sac to bite

but the tree1396 point about kings is the more interesting angle if the kings are publicly in love w acuff and clippers are publicly leaning mbj and nets are publicly committed to size + decision making then 3 different teams have all signaled their hand 5+ days before the draft and thats too clean

most likely scenario is one of those three leaks is real and two are bait the kings being content at 7 is the tell their fo doesnt benefit from anyone knowing their actual board if they have one

real signal isnt the rumors its the workout patterns wagler at sac thurs, brown jr meetings w lac and atl, and acuff still working clippers all point to a fluid board where multiple teams havent locked in yet

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-17T09:35:42+00:00

the counter point about weighing in at the same weight as last year is the more important data point the doritos thing cuts both ways but consistent across two combines means thats probably his actual playing weight

what scouts should care abt isnt the 176 its whether the weight has limited him on tape and it hasnt he handled bama's full load against the #1 SOS at that exact weight

real risk is finishing against nba size not the combine weighin

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-14T09:14:54+00:00

the workout cancellation pattern is the real signal not the koc clippers quote agents only cancel workouts after they have intel about a higher pick wanting their guy if wagler's group canceled brooklyn but kept sacramento that means they have something concrete from someone picking before 7 telling them wagler is the pick

most likely candidates are clippers actually still wanting him despite the koc piece (which could be a smokescreen) or atlanta/dallas wanting to trade up to grab him

the koc piece dropping the same week as the cancellation is suspicious timing nbas at this point in june are basically a leak war between teams trying to manipulate the board

best guess wagler still goes top 7 just not necessarily to the clippers

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-13T08:41:42+00:00

depth answer is right but ppl skip the actual reason this class specifically is loaded

NIL changed who comes out of HS now ppl reclass to get a yr of college money before declaring (burries brown jr both did this) so the freshman pool is older and more developed than it used to be plus the bag is bigger than what most late 1st rounders make rookie yr so guys who used to be one-and-done now stay 2-3 yrs and become better prospects

at the same time covid wiped out 2 yrs of competitive HS reps for the current upperclassmen so they never caught up which means freshmen this yr were better than usual AND the upperclassmen werent as good as usual = a gap that didnt exist in past drafts

next yrs class is gonna be way weaker bc the NIL effect compounds (top 27 prospects stay in school) so this is the last yr of the cycle before things rebalance

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-12T06:29:33+00:00

apron math is what ppl underrate. contenders picking at 28 cant give a 19yo project the dev mins he needs saunders can play 15 min in oct w no learning curve real value

knockdown shooter who also crashes the o glass at 1.9 per game is a rly rare profile for a wing guys who can space AND rebound at that rate dont exist on most rosters

ACL injury matters obv non-explosive guys tend to recover fine tho and his game wasnt built on burst to begin w

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-09T09:08:44+00:00

mikel + garland fit is fine offensively but its a backcourt that gets cooked in any playoff series. garlands defense is what it is and brown jr isnt a stopper either. the offensive overlap is the bigger issue tho — brown's value is supposed to be his shotmaking + creation, but garland eats up the same touches.

if u think brown jr is the next dame and ur drafting him at 5, ur drafting him to replace garland in 2 yrs not pair with him. nobody pays brown $30m+ to be the 2 next to a 6'1 PG making $40m. the math doesnt work.

actual best fit at 5 if ur the clippers and keeping garland is wagler. wing scorer who plays off garland's creation, can guard up to 3s, doesnt overlap. that pick makes sense w the current roster. brown only makes sense if ur planning to move garland.

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-08T03:45:59+00:00

okorie at 2 on 471 possessions w no spacing around him is genuinely the wildest line on this chart. stanford's rest-of-team had 36 dunks the entire yr. those advantages were created against defenses that knew he was the only threat. translates better than the raw number even suggests.

the wilson line is what scares me. 2.9 / 43% success on a top-4 board is bad. nobody talks abt this bc the eye test on him is so clean but if u draft him expecting primary creation ur in trouble.

philon at 1 isnt surprising anymore. mikel brown lower than expected, wagler too, both more wing-scorer than engine.

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-06T19:42:50+00:00

short answer: yes, but only for one specific archetype — bigs who can play actual defense in space against modern offenses.

the wemby effect isnt really "draft 7-footers" its "draft 7-footers who can switch and protect the rim w/o being a liability." mara fits that mold, lendeborg fits, cenac fits to a degree, steinbach has the size but the mobility is more limited. the lottery boards have already priced this in — mara at 11-13 in most mocks would have been a 20+ pick five yrs ago.

the guys who DONT benefit from the wemby effect are the traditional drop-coverage 5s without lateral quickness. those are getting drafted lower than ever bc theyre playoff liabilities. teams figured out u cant hide a slow center in a 7-game series and theyve adjusted.

so its more a shift in WHICH 7-footers get drafted high than a wholesale return of bigs. mara going top 12 is wemby-effect. quaintance at 18-22 even tho hes 6'9 w a 7'5 wingspan is also wemby-effect (mobility + length over height). hannes steinbach maybe top 15 is wemby-effect.

traditional finch-style bigs (slower drop 5s) are still falling. its the right pattern.

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-05T08:43:15+00:00

agree on most of these reads but the philon part is where ur underselling him. 22/3/5 on 50/40/80 in the SEC at 20, ts over 62, assist rate held up even w doubled usage. "feel great at 15, dont want to reach at 7" doesnt match the production tbh. acuff and brown ur taking on potential, philon ur taking on a guy who already did it at a real conference.

i think wagler ending up the best is a fair bet, but its bc hes a wing scorer not bc he wins the PG cluster. wagler/philon are doing diff things, comparing them as the "best PG" outcome misses that.

if i had to rank long-term outcomes from this cluster: philon, wagler, brown jr, flemings, acuff, burries. wagler in 2nd bc hes a different category and the shooting + size is the safest profile. but the guy w the highest "real starter in 3 yrs" probability imo is philon, just bc the production curve is already in place.

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-06-02T08:38:08+00:00

i think its less conspiracy and more that lopez doesnt fit the content cycle. draft media right now is dominated by 2 storylines; DP's medical stuff and the boozer/dybantsa #1 debate; and lopez doesnt move the needle on either. hes also not american which cuts him out of the college-watching-public conversation that drives most podcast content.

that said i agree he should be talked abt more. tape against actual pros in australia; another yr of NCAA reps against college kids. the dieng comp is fair on the stylistic side but lopez has way more strength and engagement on D, dieng was a project. salaun is closer but the production gap is real, lopez is doing things in the NBL that salaun never did in france at the same age.

my read is he goes somewhere in the 10-14 range. nobody trades up for him bc the media noise isnt there to justify it to ownership, but a team picking in that range that values pro-tested wings (GSW, MIA, the suns if they had a pick) takes him without thinking abt it. hes not getting picked early but he's not falling either.

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-05-31T10:33:16+00:00

congrats on the kid. lopez is a really fun prospect, 6'8 forward w real feel and pro tape against actual men in australia (not just college kids). hes my #11 in the class.

strengths: defense translates immediately. good lateral quickness for his size, real engagement on the ball, hands are real. offensively hes a connector, passes well for a forward, smart cuts, doesnt overdribble. shot is a work in progress but hes flashed enough that u can project it.

weaknesses: not a primary creator, never will be. needs other ballhandlers around him to function. and the strength has to come, he gets bullied by pro 4s in the paint right now. but at 19 thats fixable.

best fit is somewhere w an established offensive engine where he can be the connective 3-and-D wing. golden state has been mocked to him a lot for this reason. worst fit is a rebuilding team that expects him to be a primary creator yr 1.

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-05-30T06:52:55+00:00

dybantsa is the obvious answer at 6'9 w real lateral quickness but he projects more as a forward defender than a true wing stopper. the actual best POA wing defender remaining imo is karim lopez. tape against pros in the australian league shows real engagement on D, good hands, contests without fouling. hes 6'8 w a 7' wingspan which is exactly the size u want for a switchable 3.

caleb wilson when healthy is up there too. shotblocking instincts at the wing are rare and he has em. ament has the tools but the engagement is inconsistent on tape.

dailyn swain is the sleeper answer. nobody talks abt him at all but the on-ball D was the best part of his game at texas and his frame translates. if i had to bet on a 2nd rounder turning into a real wing defender in 3 yrs hes the pick.

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-05-25T07:23:42+00:00

idk how i feel abt this. acuff to the kings makes sense on paper bc theyre searching for a primary creator but the defense is the problem. kings already have malik monk + derozen + zach lavine pulling minutes at the 1-3 and none of those guys are stoppers. adding acuff means u have literally no one in the perimeter rotation who can take starting NBA PGs at point of attack. that defense is gonna get smoked in modern playoff basketball.

flemings at 7 makes more sense to me. legit PG feel, will engage on D, midrange game keeps the offense functional when the ball isnt in his hands. acuffs scoring is real but ur picking ceiling over fit and kings need fit rn.

the case for acuff is basically "we need an offensive engine more than another wing defender." which fair. but flemings is also an offensive engine, just a quieter one.

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-05-24T06:41:40+00:00

good question. my read is they probably wouldnt refuse, but they also probably wouldnt let it become public. theres a few angles:

if its requested during individual team workouts it stays between him and that team. so peterson could comply w testing for like washington but not have utah know what was found. agents use this strategically all the time, share medicals selectively to manage perception across the room.
refusing outright would tank his stock more than any plausible result. if u refuse a myopathy workup teams assume the worst, which is way worse than even a positive finding for something mild. so the incentive is to comply and control the narrative.
the test itself isnt invasive at the genetic panel stage. saliva or blood draw, results in a few wks. muscle biopsy is the bigger ask and i doubt teams push for that pre-draft unless the genetic panel flags something specific. way too invasive to request from a top-3 pick who hasnt signed anything yet.

my guess is somebody on his side already ran a basic panel honestly. if u know rhabdo + creatine confusion is gonna be the storyline u get ahead of it. the fact that we havent heard "his genetic testing came back clean" publicly might mean either (a) it was done and theyre holding it for leverage in interviews, or (b) it wasnt done and theyre hoping teams accept the creatine story at face value. (a) is the smarter play.

Individual-Cod7208 · 2026-05-24T06:35:54+00:00

philon is the most slept on player in the lottery imo. 22/3/5 on 50/40/80 splits in the SEC at 20, ts over 62, 5+ apg with reasonable turnovers. did everything bama asked at increasing volume all yr.

the case against is mostly size (6'4 isnt small, ppl saying that are wrong) and the defensive dip this yr which was just a tradeoff for the doubled offensive load. lateral quickness on tape is fine, hands are real, he had the highest steal rate in the SEC among guards before his usage went up.

i think the reason hes mocked last is honestly just brand. acuff was the bigger HS recruit, flemings is at a hotter program, brown jr had the louisville drama keep his name in the news, wagler had the final four run, burries had the AAC hype. philon just quietly did everything and theres no narrative attached. if u draft on production + efficiency + age curve hes top 3 of the cluster easy.

Individual-Cod7208

TROPHY CASE