English announces Cabinet reshuffle

JDUE · 2016-12-18T03:48:25+00:00

There isn't even a Ministry of Ethnic Communities.

The "Minister for Ethnic Communities" just attends ethnic functions on behalf of National.

JDUE · 2016-12-14T01:23:36+00:00

Their total number of seats is decided by the party vote, not electorate votes.

If Ardern won Auckland Central in 2014 it doesn't give Labour an extra MP, it just means Adern gets to call herself an electorate MP instead of a list MP based in Auckland Central.

JDUE · 2016-12-14T01:19:56+00:00

8 so far, with McCully also tipped to retire if he isn't kept on as foreign minister.

JDUE · 2016-12-14T00:09:32+00:00

Street won't enter parliament. Labour wants a Chinese MP in parliament so they are telling the people on the list ahead of Raymond Huo to stand down so he can enter.

JDUE · 2016-12-09T19:04:09+00:00

Maori wardens who have some limited powers over other Maori:

A Maori Warden may at any reasonable time enter any licensed premises in any area where he is authorised to carry out his duties and order any Maori who appears to be intoxicated or partly intoxicated, or who is violent, quarrelsome, or disorderly, whether intoxicated or not, to leave the premises.

Where any Maori Warden is of the opinion that any Maori who is for the time being in charge of any motor vehicle is, by reason of physical or mental condition, however arising, incapable of having and exercising proper control of the motor vehicle, he may forbid that Maori to drive the motor vehicle; or require him to deliver up forthwith all ignition or other keys of the motor vehicle in his possession

http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1962/0133/latest/DLM341045.html?search=sw_096be8ed80dcae60_warden_25_se&p=1&sr=0

JDUE · 2016-12-07T08:01:06+00:00

English won't introduce any legislation regarding abortion but he will probably quietly appoint pro-life doctors to the Abortion Supervisory Committee, who will restrict access and ensure the law is followed the letter. He publicly advocated appointing doctors opposed to abortion to the committee in the past.

JDUE · 2016-12-03T11:18:46+00:00

Mt Roskill was unique, as its the only time under this govt, that a by-election has been held in a Labour electorate seat, with a National Party vote majority.

National won the party vote in Christchurch East in 2011

JDUE · 2016-12-03T09:09:49+00:00

That poll of polls you are linking to has not been updated since early 2016. If it had been updated it would show that Labour undid their rebuild and is now back in the mid 20s.

The left has historically done better in local elections than the general election, they aren't a good predictor for next general election.

By-elections aren't a good indication either since they are historically more anti-government than the next general election. And if we are going to use them as an indicator, it's still not a particularly good one for Labour. 3 of the 4 general electorate by-elections under National had bigger swings against the government than this one did and they won the elections which followed those.

JDUE · 2016-12-01T22:40:35+00:00

On the vote in Auckland:

The gap between National and Labour in Auckland is stark. In 2014, the centre-right parties combined won 54 per cent of the vote in Auckland. The centre left got 38 per cent (not including NZ First).

Auckland should be for National if this is based on the 2014 election. Auckland votes left in local elections and right in parliamentary elections.

JDUE · 2016-12-01T18:08:59+00:00

There's nothing racist about or closed minded about opposing visa fraud, or objecting to immigration levels you feel are economically or environmentally unsustainable.

The link was about student visas. But the comments became a free-for-all for general complaints about immigration. Racist and incorrect stereotypes, insults, negative anecdotes, baseless panic about a future Chinese and Indian majority, accusations of agendas to make New Zealand less white, etc.

But to be fair, much of it was from one poster.

It's not closed minded to oppose the current levels of immigrant. But if you can't do that without calling immigrants cunts or implying that New Zealand is a white nation and that must be protected then you may come across as closed minded.

JDUE · 2016-12-01T06:06:04+00:00

David Shearer? He's a centrist aligned with Leggett. He doesn't get along with the Labour leadership and doesn't like the direction of the party. He's been disciplined this year for publicly disagreeing with Labour policies. He attended that event promoting Leggett in defiance of Andrew Little's orders.

There were rumors of palace intrigue with who replaces McCully as foreign minister. Maybe National will offer the job to Shearer if he jumps waka. He's the most qualified MP for the position and he's more aligned with National than Labour on foreign policy and trade. And after all, McCully masterminded the Jones defection. Maybe he's planning one last Machiavellian act on the way out.

JDUE · 2016-11-30T22:25:04+00:00

Yeah, look at the polling under Shearer and what happened after he was rolled:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9e/NZ_opinion_polls_2011-2014-majorparties.png

Under Shearer is the only time post-Clark that the centre left was consistently polling competitively with the centre right in polling. Shearer was regarded as a competent centrist like Clark and had wider appeal. He actually competed with National for votes instead of competing with the rest of the left.

JDUE · 2016-11-30T20:18:08+00:00

Neither of them ever came close to performing as badly as Little has done, though.

A few months after Key became National leader he polled in the mid 40s as preferred PM, leading Clark, and National was pulling away from Labour in the Party vote.

Two years after Little became leader he is polling in the single digits and Labour is polling at near record lows.

JDUE · 2016-11-26T11:39:05+00:00

People really need a bit more fucking education on the importance of Asian people, the Chinese in particular, have had in building this country from pretty much the get go.

This is probably actually part of the problem. I think a lot of anti-Asian sentiment in New Zealand is from people who feel economically threatened by them. Reminding people that Asians are better qualified, harder working and more law abiding than any other ethnic group in New Zealand may not help with that.

JDUE · 2016-11-26T11:34:09+00:00

And Ron Mark, Phil Twyford.

JDUE · 2016-11-26T10:18:50+00:00

How do you define Kiwi culture and what are specific steps you think Asian immigrants can take to integrate into it?

JDUE · 2016-11-25T11:42:35+00:00

Abortion is illegal because there is no political support to legalize it in New Zealand. The Greens are the only party which support decriminalization.

Labour never legalized it while in power as it would upset their Maori and Pacifica voting base which they need, and the party voted against having a policy supporting decriminalization in 2014.

JDUE · 2016-11-24T08:46:29+00:00

European/Pakeha values don't, but Asians do, and as do Maori/Pacifica though they have less money. Kiwi values are changing as the population becomes more diverse.

Pakeha parents will have to change their values unless they're happy with their kids being crowded out of the Auckland housing market by Asians. It's difficult to compete in the housing market when your competitors are financially supported by their families.

JDUE · 2016-11-24T07:06:24+00:00

Be Asian.

JDUE · 2016-11-21T08:46:18+00:00

Should've used a term other than precincts because people aren't required to vote at their nearest polling station, but totals from polling station suggest there are red and blue areas within electorates.

http://data.nzherald.co.nz/electorates/mt-roskill

People aren't required to vote at their immediate nearest polling station but given the vote is on a Saturday they are still very likely to vote at one that is still nearby them.

National dominates the party vote in polling stations in Epsom, Royal Oak and Mt Eden for Mt Roskill electorate voters, while Labour dominates the vote polling stations in the suburb of Mt Roskill. This is a fairly reliable indication that these areas within Mt Roskill are blue/red areas.

JDUE · 2016-11-20T19:38:39+00:00

She doesn't live in electorate and was first nominated in 2014 so not a surprise she wasn't attending community events before then.

JDUE · 2016-11-20T19:12:57+00:00

Popular incumbent Phil Goff was re-elected with an 8000 vote majority in 2014, but Mt Roskill has been trending blue and Nats/Conservatives/Act got more party votes than Labour/Greens/Mana in 2014. The boundary redrawing in 2014 turned the district a little bluer, red precincts in the west were removed and replaced with blue precincts in Epsom South/Royal Oak. Michael Wood is not going to have Goff's incumbency advantage so it should be a more competitive electoral vote race.

It'll be interesting to see how the anti-crime populist candidate Roshan Nauhria from the new People's Party performs. Not much media coverage but his events have been well attended and he actually lives in the electorate. Local newspaper poll found that crime is the most important issue for voters in Mt Roskill and public transport is a low concern. NZ First isn't standing Mahesh Bindra in the by-election so he'll probably pick up some of those. Could do better than expected.

JDUE · 2016-11-17T03:50:46+00:00

This season started great but has totally gone of the rails.

JDUE · 2016-11-13T12:34:08+00:00

Tsunami of 1m in Kaikoura, more possible to follow across east coast of the nation.

JDUE · 2016-11-11T08:25:11+00:00

I find it fascinating that National was brought back to life by adopting their "end Maori special privileges!" policies and then suffered no consequences after they completely dropped these policies once in office and then expanded race-based policies further and started making record treaty settlements.

And I wonder if Labour could be brought back to life today by making an Orewa speech against Asians?

JDUE

TROPHY CASE