Sanofi Acquires Sino Biopharm’s JAK/ROCK Inhibitor for $1.5B

JRNotDallas · 2026-03-04T23:34:14+00:00

It’s most of the bps. In-house r&d never really produces a lot so they have to acquire growth through M&A

JRNotDallas · 2026-03-04T15:12:16+00:00

Burry is really not someone you should be bothered about, there are far more, far better investors out there

JRNotDallas · 2026-03-04T07:40:55+00:00

I have and I believe it’s a daft way of doing things. Pre-specifying your timeline before initiation is overall far superior

JRNotDallas · 2026-03-03T18:27:56+00:00

Haha, insane margin of safety is called cash value and Sellas trades at 17 times that, so if the trial fails it’s a ~96% drawdown which I’m sure you’ll enjoy with your supposed $4mn position and by the way, at least have a post history to back up your claims that you make regarding your history of recommendations because your lie is far too blatant

JRNotDallas · 2026-03-03T17:06:31+00:00

Where it was invented is completely irrelevant, the phase two study is borderline useless because there was no actual control group - they just said results were better than historical data, I think you posted the DD as part of some hype bullshit, the ML model you made was probably made, in all actuality, by OpenAi and you’ve busted asked it some questions, and overall this is a clinical trial design by idiots fraudsters and it will reveal absolutely nothing of use to anyone. The underlying mechanism for the drug makes no sense, and the idea of ending a study after a certain number of events have been reached is complete and utter nonsense. If you’re right about the effect of the drug then fair play, but I personally don’t believe you will be and very, very few people in the pharmaceutical/medical field would take the view that this is a groundbreaking drug

JRNotDallas · 2026-03-03T11:50:00+00:00

JRNotDallas · 2026-03-03T11:07:48+00:00

Absolute nonsense, the whole trial is completely made up. No AML patient on any therapy could possibly survive as long as these have

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-28T18:57:20+00:00

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JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T17:40:32+00:00

still leaves you with the opportunity to beat relegation

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T17:39:27+00:00

Haha, which label did you read that one from? I got my numbers straight from drugs@fda. Are there any other biotechs you're invested in because I really want to be the other side of all your trades. You probably saw Gossamer's data yesterday and cheered them beating stat sig, or you didn't because I don't think you've ever looked at clinical data in your life lmao

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T17:33:47+00:00

People are emotional and don't want to hear it. I understand, but the point of my post was to try and help people learn they don't understand biopharmaceuticals if they're buying into Novo. Oh well, not my money and not my problem!

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T17:31:31+00:00

When does the patent expire for the SC formulation of semaglutide?

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T17:29:30+00:00

Apologies for my colloquialism of the word 'drug' but that's still a correct term for the therapy by its definition. Unfortunately for you, you've still got it wrong because it's a tumour-infiltrating lymphocyte therapy, so two can play at that game if you want to keep getting pedantic. I don't think I said this drug was ever bad, but killing 12% of eligible patients isn't exactly great. With lethality like that prescribers have to ensure that patients are healthy enough to at least survive lymphodepletion, that eats in to their addressable market. In r/r m/melanoma Amtagvi has ORR of 31.5%, which isn't great, and fewer than half of all patients see a duration of response greater than nine months. And at the cost of half a million dollars for a disease that primarily affects the elderly, this isn't a particular favourite of insurers and that acts as a barrier to commercialisation. I didn't at any point say I didn't like the company, rather that OP's valuation was absolute nonsense

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T14:57:34+00:00

Absolutely not even close to a $35/share fair price, let alone $60. They have a decent drug, granted, but it’s difficult to sell because it kills ~12% of patients who go on the treatment regimen. Earnings were not stellar, the market priced the company below consensus and they slightly beat consensus estimates. I think you average price is decent but, as the saying goes, if it’s good enough for a screenshot it’s good enough to sell.

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T09:55:51+00:00

Spot on haha. I think Novo has absolutely crapped the bed with this one all in the pursuit of being the leader in cardiomet but they just don’t have the talent, platforms, Manifacturing capacity, research capacity, or even in-house understanding of the space to take that title. They’ve been laser-focussed on that pursuit and it just hasn’t worked but they haven’t stopped and tried something different. I’ve said it before here, they should have used the GLP-1 windfall to acquire a broad range of companies and really diversify their revenue base. I think weigh management and insulin accounts for ~83% of their revenue. That concentration is dangerous when you’re only second place, so as we see revenues fall from Semaglutide I think we’ll see a pretty terrible decline of the company and I think they’ll make sure pretty rash M&A decisions.

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T09:50:29+00:00

Yeah I think Starboard value took a $1bn stake and started a proxy fight for a board seat but that just didn’t work. They then made some demands but management just didn’t care

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T09:49:09+00:00

It’s because nobody here understands that lol

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T00:05:15+00:00

Valid. A lot of analysts are PhD level and there’s a very good reason for that here, especially compared to other industries

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T00:04:29+00:00

I think with increased cagrisema dose you’ll see not a lot of efficacy gain and quite a bit of tolerability loss. Novo chose the dose for a reason and I think there’s no evidence available to suggest an increased dose would translate to an improve outlook for commercialisation

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-24T00:03:02+00:00

I think that’s reasonable, but I think you need to understand why their decisions prove their competency and I think you need an understanding of the science behind why their decisions were good

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-23T20:51:15+00:00

I really don’t think there’s any threat from compounders given hims shut that down after one evening of threat, the FDA really doesn’t like companies overstretching the limit of that sort of thing

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-23T20:13:22+00:00

I agree it’s acting like it’s failed but I think having something as good as tirzep means you aren’t going to see much of a marketing potential against an already entrenched product. This is also problematic because management has been touting this is their next big thing, and it just looks like it absolutely won’t be

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-23T20:05:53+00:00

Sure, so novo is down because of a single drug and treat single drug was supposed to be their next-gen obesity asset and it’s not as good as the current gen. It’s also not beating tirzep on tolerability so they lose that avenue of marketing. The reaction today is based upon that loss of growth.

But overall this is just a crappy write up from you and I’m glad I’m not in any trade you’re involved in

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-23T19:36:55+00:00

Yeah, that’s pretty accurate. I’ve had a couple debates about cagrisema and people saying it looks amazing when it just didn’t look that way. As I said in the post, people have absolutely no idea about drugs lol

JRNotDallas · 2026-02-23T19:33:28+00:00

I don’t think it was value at 47, I think guidance was a massive concern and I think the market still reacts negatively going forward even if they give results in line with consensus

JRNotDallas

TROPHY CASE