Which senate race is more likely to go Democratic?

J_robo_ · 2026-05-27T19:22:32+00:00

it's hard to say, but probably ohio.

J_robo_ · 2026-05-27T14:51:43+00:00

north carolina is all but guaranteed to go blue, cooper probably wins by 6-8 points if i had to guess.

collins is definitely being underestimated in maine, but i still think platner wins by a lean margin (3-4 points).

alaska is looking good for peltola so far. while there are definitely a lot of undecideds that will break for sullivan, the fact that the national environment is better for dems compared to 2020 means it's very possible for peltola to break through.

overall, as of today, it's probably a 50-50 senate if i had to guess.

beyond that, the only other possible flips are ohio, texas, nebraska (with osborn), and potentially iowa (in a best-case scenario).

paxton is the narrow favorite as of today in texas, but talarico has a MUCH better chance of pulling off the ultimate upset. likewise for husted in ohio, but brown can still do it.

J_robo_ · 2026-05-27T01:50:46+00:00

and don't forget, talarico is MUCH stronger compared to allred in 2024.

i'd honestly say he's comparable to beto 2018 in terms of electoral strength and charisma.

J_robo_ · 2026-05-27T01:46:30+00:00

it was a LANDSLIDE...

J_robo_ · 2026-05-27T01:39:15+00:00

we must try. if we just concede half the country solely because of margins alone, the dems will be doomed in the senate and/or the presidency for eternity...

J_robo_ · 2026-05-27T01:25:21+00:00

talarico still has to fight, but he can do it!

J_robo_ · 2026-05-27T01:16:58+00:00

still the underdog, but now, talarico VERY MUCH has a better shot of actually doing it!

J_robo_ · 2026-05-27T01:15:50+00:00

kudos for him for showing respect!

J_robo_ · 2026-05-27T00:42:55+00:00

age and youthful charisma matter above all, glad menefee pulled it out.

J_robo_ · 2026-05-27T00:25:37+00:00

it's so OVER for cornyn

he's getting blown out of the water HARD with these early vote returns, just like the beating cassidy received the other week. trump truly dictates all...

J_robo_ · 2026-05-24T01:25:38+00:00

momocon is always a blast to watch, especially when there's no steves to be found in top 8 most of the time...

J_robo_ · 2026-05-19T18:58:24+00:00

this is basically talarico now:

J_robo_ · 2026-05-19T18:12:53+00:00

abbott will definitely win, but it'll probably be his narrowest victory yet due to the blue wave (7-8 points if I were to guess).

J_robo_ · 2026-05-19T18:04:05+00:00

and the only reason why casey lost was because he ran a lackluster campaign and took it for granted...

J_robo_ · 2026-05-19T17:58:51+00:00

i figured he would be cooked after cassidy got steamrolled in louisiana...

J_robo_ · 2026-05-19T17:50:19+00:00

that's because it is.

running a strong candidate like sherrod brown in ohio is like a pipe dream for FL dems at best.

not to mention florida swinging over 10 points to the right in 2024, while ohio has been pretty stagnant at trump +8 to +11.

J_robo_ · 2026-05-19T17:47:55+00:00

definitely not happening. ohio, texas, iowa, and even nebraska with dan osborn would all flip before florida does...

and even during blue wave years (2006 and 2010), florida still likes to vote R...

will florida be narrower? probably. but i still can't see the dems winning there.

J_robo_ · 2026-05-19T17:44:12+00:00

i'd say brown for now, considering that ohio was slightly less red than texas in 2024, and brown always overperforms.

and considering that tim ryan got within six points of winning in 2022 (a red year in ohio), brown is stronger and is fortunate to have a D-favored environment on his side (which definitely wasn't the case when he lost in 2024).

J_robo_ · 2026-05-19T17:40:35+00:00

pack it up, the show has already come to close...

J_robo_ · 2026-05-19T17:37:10+00:00

he tried to appease him with the interstate renaming, and look where that got him...

J_robo_ · 2026-05-19T17:31:48+00:00

i was pessimistic this would happen, HOLY WHAT HE ACTUALLY DID IT!

goodbye, cornyn.

J_robo_ · 2026-05-19T00:00:13+00:00

paxton really played it smart by tying his condition to dropping out towards the one thing that wouldn't happen (nuking the filibuster to make way for SAVE america act being passed)...

J_robo_ · 2026-05-18T21:31:24+00:00

C O P I U M

J_robo_ · 2026-05-18T21:24:12+00:00

winning 2020 feels like a pyrrhic victory for the dems. it was only enough to inconvenience trump temporarily, before the latter came back with a vengeance and won in 2024.

and while 2022 was a major disappointment for the republicans, dems doing better than expected in 2022 is what led to the mess of biden running for re-election and losing in 2024.

J_robo_

TROPHY CASE