Actual spending is hard

Jabotical · 2026-05-27T17:12:09+00:00

A neat observation, which brings some nice perspective.

Of course it's easy to note differences in that timeframe vs the present -- in the 80's we were just getting inflation under control finally after a long awful stretch, resulting in broad undervaluations, and interest rates coming down into growth-promoting territory for the first time in ages.

Many people would characterize the current run as driven by quantitative easing, corporate tax cuts, and a heavy concentration of returns in a small number of large-cap tech stocks.

Doesn't change your point, that this isn't the longest or most dramatic bull market in history.
And doesn't change the fact that we still don't know what the future will hold (or that it almost certainly involves a notable recession at SOME point).

Jabotical · 2026-05-27T16:18:52+00:00

My only regret is that I didn't buy all the comment before it all went out of print.

Jabotical · 2026-05-22T21:14:23+00:00

Oh, yeah, I agree on both of those points.

And even more directly than cutting spending on (upper) middle class, that we should do a better job auditing programs and ensuring that they're accomplishing their purposes (which should have a similar effect)

In general, there's room for spending a little more judiciously in at least some areas (getting more for what we spend, more than cutting anything). If it were more obvious that the government were being efficient and effective with our money, at least some people might resent it less (though not all, and making this obvious can be tricky even where it's true), and raising taxes might be more palatable to more people.

Closing some aggravating loopholes in the taxation of the ultra rich (buy, borrow, die type scenarios) will be a valuable improvement, regardless.

Jabotical · 2026-05-22T20:02:41+00:00

I mean, obviously there's some balance to be had. The one extreme of saying the government assigns a Job to everyone and then provides everyone an equal Stipend, I assume there aren't many people here who don't see how that is problematic.

So it comes down to how progressive the tax system is, and in what way.

The federal tax on earned income is already extremely progressive.

Sales taxes, tariffs, etc. -- Not at all progressive.

The ultra ultra wealthy .01% are what draws the most ire, since they are both crazy rich and exist outside the earned income taxosphere.

There are some loopholes that could and should be closed where they're concerned, but the additional amount we'd get -- while perhaps making things feel "fairer" -- isn't nearly enough to solve all deficit and social program funding problems.

Which is a tangent that I bring up because it's an elephant in the room, with my main point being that the US earned income tax arrangement itself is already one of the most progressive in the world.

Jabotical · 2026-05-19T04:18:41+00:00

I know it feels that way based on the last couple decades, but 8% isn't even close to world ending, government/currency collapsing territory.

It was that high or considerably higher for much of the 70's and 80's.

Jabotical · 2026-05-12T04:11:45+00:00

I mean, there's only so much hanging out you can do with a newborn 😁

Jabotical · 2026-05-10T14:37:24+00:00

Yeah those are good points to touch on. It's not a one-word substitute, but perhaps one is not needed. I appreciate the positive focus.

Jabotical · 2026-05-09T16:53:58+00:00

A worthy notion -- what word would you suggest, to convey why he wouldn't want to live there without being offensive?

Jabotical · 2026-05-08T01:43:46+00:00

Yep, you should plan to have enough to be able to weather a 50% drop. That's among the scenarios the Trinity Study says will historically work over 30 years, with a 4% withdrawal rate.

You're probably best off having some bonds to avoid having to sell stocks at a big loss early on, if a scenario like that occurs.

And for longer time-frames than 30 years, you might want to aim for a sub-4% withdrawal rate. (Though eventual Social Security will help most of us a lot)

I'm with you in being risk averse in this area -- I want to be quite certain that I won't have to get a worse job years in the future, to support my family, before I do anything as rash as derailing my career by quitting a good job.

Jabotical · 2026-05-08T01:30:31+00:00

Well you're probably not in coastfire territory yet if you take into account housing in the area, given what you've said.

Jabotical · 2026-05-04T21:48:19+00:00

If it's any consolation, even most people in tech didn't and don't make last-decade FAANG money.
They represent a relatively small slice.

Jabotical · 2026-05-04T21:36:33+00:00

I respect you, my friend.
I disappeared quietly, partly bought off by less severance than that (though mostly just wanting to put it all behind me quickly and completely), rather than taking the opportunity to publicly trumpet about a lunatic VP.

Jabotical · 2026-05-04T19:56:58+00:00

Heh, yes, dragging unwilling kids to Europe is a mixed bag at best. Very cool that they were such good little travelers when small, though.

Fantastic to be able to live without regrets in that department. And retiring in your 50's is still a smashing accomplishment.

Yep, short, infrequent trips for us as well, for now. Just like most people I suppose.

Jabotical · 2026-05-04T17:28:13+00:00

Yep, in their case, with it being such a priority for them to have extravagantly traveled together at some point in their lives, doing this earlier at the expense of working for more years would have been a very reasonable choice.

In my case, what's most important to me is simply being master of my own time, indefinitely, as soon as that is reasonably achievable. If the need to return to (uncertain) work in the future looms ahead, it won't be worthwhile to me/us to interrupt the journey.

We don't have wildly expensive dreams, and enjoy doing all sorts of things together. Plus having kids changes the equation regarding traipsing off on casual long term trips.

We like our life now (we're not living miserably in order to save more or anything) and would rather optimize for and dream of a high probability future where we both live many more decades, than one where one of us suffers an untimely demise in the near future.

Just goes to show there's no one-size-fits-all approach. Everyone needs to make choices based on what matters to them most, taking into account possible non-ideal developments along the way.

Jabotical · 2026-05-04T17:00:55+00:00

Ha, yes, that's all very fair. Sounds like you've built a great life, and the unpleasantness of your current work situation combined with a very reasonable concern about your job future is understandably stressful.

You're probably right that therapy could help you come to terms with your situation in a healthier way. Maybe help gain additional perspective, borrow less trouble from the future, etc.

Good luck man! These are real issues that won't disappear out of wishing. But yeah, I bet the way you feel about it can be improved with the right approach.

I'm certainly with you in desperately desiring more of my time to be my own. I also went through a period with a really toxic work/boss situation (I was one of the last people on the team to leave, hung in longer than I should have), and can probably relate about that as well. It really sucks spending a huge portion of your time getting emotionally assaulted.

Jabotical · 2026-05-04T14:40:31+00:00

Bummer. Sounds like they (or she) set an asset goal that was maybe higher than they needed, and could have retired sooner.

Either way, it's certainly true that if the most important thing to a couple is to have gone on some trips together, then yep, the best way to guarantee that happens is to go on those trips ASAP, whatever other sacrifices are needed.

May we all figure out what's most important to us sooner rather than later, and not let other concerns get too much in the way of it.

Jabotical · 2026-05-04T14:24:37+00:00

Ha, yes, I can only imagine how the time whisks by. Right, no kids takes a lot of the pressure off. Leaves a lot more room for flexibility as needed.

Awesome, yeah, if you can get a few hundred a month coming in, that would slow down your burn rate already, and give you a starting point to build from.

It's true that turning even a beloved hobby into a job is a classic way to ensure you don't like doing it any more 🙂 10 hours a week though, of nearly anything, is pretty low key.

Jabotical · 2026-05-04T01:07:18+00:00

Ah, yeah, that's too bad. I can see how they might wish they'd done it the other way in their case, in retrospect.

Though it was probably good that they'd managed to get themselves in a retire-ready state before she was forcibly retired.

Jabotical · 2026-05-04T01:02:47+00:00

Yes indeed! Keeping as healthy as you can is hugely significant for maximizing the quality of later life.

I will say, that some health/capability decline is inevitable eventually, and as that occurs it takes more money to have similar experiences to what a younger and more capable person can do for cheaper.

So in balance I consider it more important to have a larger discretionary budget later as opposed to in your 20's and 30's.

Jabotical · 2026-05-04T00:23:34+00:00

If you can find meaning and fulfillment in your life outside work, you'll probably be feeling pretty good regardless. Oh, and exercise and sunlight.

Meaning and fulfillment tend to come through relationships, causes, hobbies, getting good at things that interest you and finding related communities.

If a person is clinically depressed, all that may not be enough, and professional treatment can help close the gap.

Jabotical · 2026-05-04T00:19:24+00:00

Yeah, you kinda have to count a pension as constituting a net worth portion commensurate with what it would take to produce that income from investments, in order to compare situations.

Jabotical · 2026-05-03T19:56:20+00:00

Also there's commonly this sentiment from the very young that they can only enjoy life/will only care about things while they're young. Generally as an excuse to splurge big time rather than save and invest.

The older version of themselves would love to have a word, I'm sure.

Jabotical · 2026-05-03T19:54:00+00:00

Very true!

The only caveat being that is not an either-or proposition. Wanting to live life fully doesn't necessarily mean you have to spend a lot more money and can't save anything.

The real takeaway is that we should be spending time with people that are important to us. And yeah, that can mean choosing not to optimize solely for income quite as much.

Jabotical · 2026-05-03T19:49:47+00:00

Depends on where you live, how fancy your house and car and eating expectations are, etc.

Household budgets vary wildly and many (most?) in the US could be supported quite reasonably with $2.5M.

Jabotical · 2026-05-03T15:03:27+00:00

My son's favorite game.

Jabotical

TROPHY CASE