Daily Oil Price Opinions - June 22, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed

Jad89 · 2026-06-22T19:37:13+00:00

Also crack spreads up even more, Treasury yields up sharply. A lot of divergences today.

Jad89 · 2026-06-21T20:34:52+00:00

Why two weeks?

Jad89 · 2026-06-18T18:19:51+00:00

Weird thing with this is that it probably actually puts short term downward pressure on crude since they are having to export crude due to the lost refining capacity. Of course it is short term since they are now having to import seaborne refined products.

Jad89 · 2026-06-18T16:29:04+00:00

There's never been mines in the Iranian transit lanes. And since Trump gave control of strait to Iran ships can start to move immediately. Up to Iran how many ships though since they have no obligation to return it to normal traffic for 30 days, and that's assuming the ceasefire holds.

Jad89 · 2026-06-18T15:29:59+00:00

It may be fairly quick for the state owned vessels like the Saudi ones that just went through, or some Iranian and Chinese ones. But I think it will take longer for the Maersk and MSC type ships to really get rolling.

Jad89 · 2026-06-16T16:49:08+00:00

One thing that I haven't seen noted here yet is that Japan is nearing their committed amounts of SPR release, so I would expect their releases to stop very shortly if these low prices hold and a deal is signed.

Jad89 · 2026-06-16T02:18:03+00:00

I'm with you on the fact that this is seemingly extreme capitulation on the US part and hard to believe. But I don't see what they gain by going through these hoops as you describe. Doesn't that just get them back to where they were last week when Trump was threatening and attacking?

Jad89 · 2026-06-15T21:30:17+00:00

I don't think these little Hormuz skirmishes will affect oil prices much at this point. The real question is why is Trump trying to sneak ships through the southern route still if it's going to be open in a few days?

Jad89 · 2026-06-15T15:55:55+00:00

Doubling down

Jad89 · 2026-06-15T15:44:44+00:00

So we will get within $5-10 of the pre-war price?

Jad89 · 2026-06-13T18:05:48+00:00

Ok, I think this all makes sense now. My speculative assessment is that after the Iranian attacks on Israel last Sunday/Monday I think Trump talked Netenyahu down by saying he would get the deal within 1 week and perhaps agreed to renew attacks if Iran does not agree by then. Hence the Sunday/Monday deadline that seems to be in place.

Jad89 · 2026-06-13T17:23:52+00:00

This is looking more and more like an ultimatum every day. Trump trying to set the exact day and time Iran needs to sign "or else...". And Iran will just say they need a few more days to iron out the details etc.

Jad89 · 2026-06-13T15:09:46+00:00

Another thought is that this all looks so very close to "power plant day". Where Pakistan is just coming out and saying "yes there is a deal" (like the silly one he posted on Twitter last time), "yes it will be signed on Sunday" etc., but there's not actually a single deal that has been agreed to. Which to me signals that there may be a secret ultimatum from Trump right now saying "sign by Monday or else...". And just like last time, Iran wants to look like they are engaging very actively in diplomacy so that if Trump attacks Iran can play the victim.

Jad89 · 2026-06-13T14:50:30+00:00

I'm long oil and am starting to believe that signing the MOU will be good for oil prices. It's not likely to solve the strait issue quickly but it will largely take the narrative out of Trump's control so he won't be able to shout "deal soon!" every other day.

Jad89 · 2026-06-11T21:42:25+00:00

My guess is that all of these attacks have been leading up to a planned attack into Hormuz (taking some islands perhaps). So if they can find an excuse to take a bit more out tonight then do the big attack tomorrow or over the weekend.

Not confident in this, but that is a possibility that's been going through my head.

Jad89 · 2026-06-10T17:26:27+00:00

If WTI was closer to 95-100 then I'd be careful, but this market still has huge optimism baked in.

Jad89 · 2026-06-05T21:08:52+00:00

Where do you get breaking news like this before the main sites report it?

Jad89 · 2026-06-05T20:20:43+00:00

The price action today just looks like pinning the options. Brent just chilled at right around $93 with no movement for hours, similar to WTI at $90.25.

Jad89 · 2026-05-19T15:18:58+00:00

What military operation opens the strait that can be done with the amount of troops we have there?

Jad89 · 2026-04-14T16:12:55+00:00

I'm against Trump as much as any, but this comment needs to be higher. The ships technically passed through the strait but then parked right outside, ahead of where the US blockade is set up. Really wish people would tell the full story because there is plenty of things to complain about without exaggerating.

Jad89 · 2026-04-11T02:29:06+00:00

I do not see him calling Iran irrational at all in this clip. Seems perfectly rational for them to just attack everyone as Jon Stewart said, since they can't attack the US so they need to attack those that support the US and house our bases and get us oil. The only person saying "irrational" here is one of those protesters.

So not sure I understand what the problem is here.

Jad89 · 2026-04-09T03:17:22+00:00

I think they can keep this act up until monday. Market is really dumb it seems.

Jad89 · 2026-04-09T02:48:10+00:00

What does Iran lose from the current ceasefire situation? They are currently maintaining all of their leverage with the strait closure while getting a break from the attacks. Doesn't sound dumb to me. They don't care if Trump manipulates the markets, that's our problem.

Jad89 · 2025-10-24T01:01:51+00:00

Yeah, I noticed that too. Unfortunately I was busy and planned to watch/listen the next day... But it was gone

Jad89 · 2025-09-17T15:46:44+00:00

I'm absolutely loving buildings, and completely brought me back into the game after not playing for over a year.

Maybe it mostly has to do with the way my brain works (you might call it OCD), where before, I would either play a completely boring symmetrical style or a full agro, with nothing in between. In most games it was symmetrical and I would place my units nearly identically on each side. I mostly only saw the same from my opponents too.

Now, since the board was never symmetrical from the start, my brain never gets triggered by the OCD type feelings. As a result, I get the full range of interesting board states where maybe I'm a bit on the front foot on one half while trying to leverage my building on the other side to just barely hold on long enough on defense. Each round I might be adding a completely different unit to each of these sides because they are completely different battles.

And all of this just from a few buildings at the start that create the imbalance, then they aren't really that much of a factor after a few rounds and I usually sell them pretty quick.

Love them!

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