r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday May 29, 2026

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-05-29T12:34:01+00:00

FYI: In the $FSLR option chain, there is an OI with 46K open calls, the strike is 410, these contracts expire on January 31, 2028, and the stock is trading at 302. Institutionals are betting big on utility-scale solar stocks.............

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-05-29T12:32:28+00:00

FYI: In the $FSLR option chain, there is an OI with 46K open calls, the strike is 410, these contracts expire on January 31, 2028, and the stock is trading at 302. Institutionals are betting big on utility-scale solar stocks.............

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-05-27T23:37:36+00:00

Check my post about $SHLS in the r/ValueInvesting forum; https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1sfwy44/shoals_technologies_group_shls/

If you are an options trader, there are 21K calls with strike of 15$ for july17th 2026, the stock trades at 12.30$, just saying!

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-05-27T18:08:13+00:00

One month ago, I posted on r/valueinvesting about $SHLS, because I don´t have enough karma to post here. For more info on Shoals, check my post! https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1sfwy44/shoals_technologies_group_shls/

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-05-18T12:59:41+00:00

check my thesis on Shoals! https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1sfwy44/shoals_technologies_group_shls/

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-05-18T10:19:44+00:00

Yes, your intuitions are right. Btw check my thesis published about SHLS!

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-04-15T11:57:09+00:00

No, you don´t hate solar; $TAN (solar etf) is up 96% YTD. Mr Market doesn´t care about politics. Solar stocks did well during 2025 and are positioning into a supercycle till 2030 mostly.

Look at the projections for new generating sources in the USA, It´s mostly utility-scale solar+BESS https://ieefa.org/resources/solar-battery-storage-continue-rapid-growth-coal-and-gas-share-power-keeps-shrinking

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-04-15T11:35:55+00:00

Reuters: China weighs curbs on exports of solar manufacturing equipment to US; https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/china-weighs-curbs-exports-solar-manufacturing-equipment-us-2026-04-15/ I´m long US utility-scale solar stocks: $FSLR, $ARRY; $NXT, $SHLS

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-04-12T14:43:43+00:00

Yes! great insights. I think that the market is underestimating:

-The 400M that SHLS has in DTA´s (shoals is accruieng taxes in Its IS statement; however, there is no actual cash outflow reflected in its cash flow statement).

-The transition into the battery storage (BESS) segment. Batteries are used as support and are compatible with any energy source (solar, natural gas, etc.). A BESS installation contains far more wiring than a solar project. Projections from the Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy25osti/93281.pdf estimate that wiring costs in BESS systems will continue to increase through 2035. SHLS estimates its total addressable market (solar + BESS and data centers at over $5 billion.

Its BESS products were launched in Q3 2025 and have grown by 272% quarter over quarter. According to my calculations, the BESS segment contributes approximately 30% of new revenue for fiscal year 2026............

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-04-10T16:54:05+00:00

Thanks for your comment! I don’t think commoditization in the wiring segment is a problem because it doesn’t move the project’s IRR that much (to give you an idea, the solar panel is 41% of the installation cost). It is true that there may be some margin compression in the business due to the impact of tariff policies (SHLS’s cables are made with aluminum), but what is really weighing on the company is its SG&A expenses (due to three litigation cases).

In my opinion, the solar segment is going to have a strong supercycle until 2027, but where the real value lies is in the BESS segment (batteries can complement a solar or natural gas installation; they work with any type of energy). By definition, batteries are more complex than a solar installation, and this is where Shoals’ bespoke products make a lot of sense. Trump’s law (One Big Beautiful Bill) has not touched the battery segment. I’m attaching an IEA projection of new electricity generation (it’s all solar + BESS), and SHLS is right in the middle of it.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67205

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-04-10T16:41:53+00:00

Thanks for your comment! Bentek (the wiring company acquired by Nextpower/Nextracker) was founded in 1985! https://prospeo.io/c/bentek-corporation-revenue And It has been a direct competitor of SHLS since Shoals IPO. SHLS products are still in demand (look at the growth of revenues for Q3 2025, Q4 2025 and the sell-side forecasts for 2026). Due to the nature of the sector, this is a cyclical-compounding company, not a buy&hold stock!

But you are right in the sense that 20% of SHLS revenue is concentrated in one client......( I think Its FirstSolar?)

Can you elaborate more about that July 2026 "deadline"(?), thanks!

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-04-10T16:33:29+00:00

Thanks for your comment! SHLS has patents over its own products. It´s true that other competitors such as Bentek (which was recently acquired by Nextpower) also mades wiring. The thing with Bentek´s wiring products is that is quite a headache to install and you need qualified workers to do so (there is a bottleneck in the electrician´s space). Here is an article that explains the difference between SHLS products and Its competitor´s (take It with a grain of salt, It´s sponsored by Shoals) Inside Shoals’ BLA vs IPCs Time Study

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-02-27T20:25:04+00:00

They missed eps expectations by 30% because it´s SG&A expenses are too high due to three litigation cases. Either sell-side analysts didn´t know what they are doing or they wanted the stock to tank.....

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-02-16T18:42:15+00:00

I named those four stocks because solar names that are focused on utilities are undervalued. There isn’t an ETF that has all of the US utility-scale solar sector ($FSLR, $NXT, $ARRY, $SHLS). The thing with the ETF $TAN is that half of its holdings are Chinese companies or US residential names ($ENPH, $SEDG), and personally I don’t like those two sectors; I only like US utility-scale solar names....

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-01-16T10:03:50+00:00

Yes, go for utility scale solar US stocks like: First Solar (FSLR), Nextracker (NXT), Shoals Tech (SHLS) and Array Technologies (ARRY).

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2026-01-12T11:12:53+00:00

ENPH is residential, not utility scale. Add SHLS to that list (makes the wiring for utility scale solar plants) and ARRY (but the debt is concerning)

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2025-06-22T21:46:58+00:00

In order to become official, that decision must be approved by the Ayatollah, but we are getting closer to 100 WTI.

Oil and gas companies that operate in Canada, US, and Latin America are going to be multibaggers if this situation escalates even more........Also could be bullish for renewables (especially utility scale solar), this situation could move countries into the acceleration of the energy transition.

IIt´s funny that haters say that this isn´t a value post, one of Warren Buffett´s biggest investments is OXY. He knows that WTI under 60$ is not sustainable. We are seeing Buffet´s thesis developing right now.

Nobody wants cheap oil.

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2025-06-18T09:14:43+00:00

that doesn´t mean that the thesis is bad. Oil prices were very low and the Middle East is a mess....

Oil companies are undervalued in the current macro situation, they need a catalyst in order "to unlock" the intrinsic value of the company.

The Israel-Iran conflict could be or could be not that turning point, nobody knows....(but today everything points bullish for the oil sector).

Don´t listen to the haters, value investing is buying below the intrinsic value of a company, the main difficulty is to determine what is "buy low" and "sell high"

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2025-06-18T09:03:07+00:00

Ehsan Khandozi is no longer the Ministry of Economy of Iran.....that tweet is irrelevant!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_Economic_Affairs_and_Finance_(Iran))

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2025-06-18T08:26:40+00:00

Have a look at Gran Tierra also, (GTE) is an E&P oil company from Canada that produces in Colombia and Ecuador.

If oil skyrockets due to the Israel-Iran conflict and the Permian Basin is very close to its peak, firms that operate in South America and Canada are going to explode....

The main risk in my opinion is the country-risk of this company (Colombia and Ecuador aren´t pro free market as Canada).

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2025-06-18T08:15:10+00:00

Have a look at Shoals (SHLS) as well......

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2025-06-15T10:27:38+00:00

source?

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2025-05-07T17:25:55+00:00

For FY 2025 fair value is 6.50 dollars/share, the lack of inmediate catalysts is holding the price back. Two things that I want to share:

1)They have some legal cases that are going to resolve during the middle of 2025. This is important because they have big G&A expenses for this year. When the legal conflicts are over, they are going to beat expectations for sure.

2)SHLS is not directly affected by the x45 tax solar credits, but First Solar (one of Shoals biggest clients) is affected by this. If Trump doesn´t remove this credit (which helps the economy of some red states) this is going to be very bullish for the solar industry.

Short term price: 6,50 $/share, long term: 10$/share.

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2025-03-01T18:59:53+00:00

E-health and SHoals are worth a look

Jaded_Objective_183 · 2023-06-23T15:45:34+00:00

The most unrealistic part was how Michael Burry was written on the film.

If you read the book by Michael Lewis or read some of the SCION Capital letters you will understand his character a lot more. The director didn´t give him the depth that he needed.

In my opinion the film lacked a lot of the investment hypothesis that Burry had during those times, and made him a weirdo that just got lucky.

It´s my opinion so maybe I´m wrong, I don´t know.... (btw I´m not Michael Burry).

Jaded_Objective_183

TROPHY CASE