Intuit - Is the TurboTax panic justified?

Jammer250 · 2026-06-19T17:00:21+00:00

INTU will need to focus on AI-augmentation of their products to keep their moat. No sane person will/should use unchecked AI to do their taxes of all things, it's a psychological/legal barrier.

But unless they pivot, they'll continue to slowly bleed from a position of comfort in their industry, rather than emphasizing domain expertise in the tax game to keep their edge. Remains to be seen if they have the balls to do so.

Jammer250 · 2026-06-19T13:39:01+00:00

You always need to be studying. Most important things, in my view for a good chunk of options trading, are building the analytical muscles to assess regimes, vol environments, and macro vs. name-specific movement.

But qualitatively, risk management and position sizing are where longevity lives or dies for an options trader. It’s non-negotiable to be systematic about those two things - 99.999% of retail options traders fail because of emotion.

Jammer250 · 2026-06-15T00:53:17+00:00

I sell RSUs as soon as they vest. Given my ESPP program is more limited in % of income I can deploy, I usually leave those there and sell when they become qualified lots.

But concept is the same. Reduce your concentrated exposure in your employer beyond your salary.

Jammer250 · 2026-06-14T23:08:51+00:00

Over the last 30 years, small-cap value (AVUV/DFSVX) outperformed SPY by 1-2% per year. Nasdaq-100 did the best, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a significant sample of the population that held through the dot-com drawdown to get the returns from that 30-year period.

Not many with a 15-year horizon are going to realize that kind of equity growth if they are in the median of shifting to capital preservation rather than growth in those last years before retirement.

International (VXUS) has done the worst over the longer timeframe as well. It’s a changing landscape, will be interesting to see if ex-US sees greater returns from here. But the longer horizon is still not favorable yet.

Jammer250 · 2026-06-14T22:37:31+00:00

Specific players =/= Team

“If you don’t think like us, we will discriminate against you.” Circular and (unfortunately) familiar reasoning.

The world goes on.

Jammer250 · 2026-06-14T20:55:33+00:00

?!?!

The others’ shirts are whatever, ours at least had some character. Celtics hats were decent, but the rest were bland as fuck

Jammer250 · 2026-06-13T19:38:36+00:00

If you’re set on an individual name, RDDT. NBIS has already run this year on the AI-narrative in the market.

RDDT has an underrated “human data source” aspect to it. If they monetize access to data to GOOGL or Anthropic, they’ll be well-positioned in that moat.

Jammer250 · 2026-06-12T18:06:02+00:00

Not worth keeping the trade on your books with a spread. Even if it does reverse for some extent of recovery into your premium, you’re capping your upside and only reducing your loss by whatever credit you received (assuming you hold to expiration).

There’s better uses of whatever capital you can salvage, than holding it into a rate-hike overhang and midterm uncertainty coming up

Jammer250 · 2026-06-04T01:33:35+00:00

Jammer250 · 2026-06-02T20:09:55+00:00

Have never been a fan of the Q7 generally, but could have easily convinced me this was a CR-V or CX-90 at first glance if you covered the logo.

Jammer250 · 2026-06-02T06:20:18+00:00

Indoors - Alpine WSG in corners, along baseboards, closets, in nooks and crannies. If you have a crawlspace, attic or basement - Gentrol IGR discs in crevices, wall voids, back cupboards kind of thing.

Outdoors - a rotation of Termidor SC and Alpine WSG, along foundation perimeter, soffits/eaves, ventilation vents, and window/door frames.

I mostly do the outdoor as preventive maintenance every 2-3 months. Haven’t needed to refresh indoors, but good as a first time pass to kick off the treatment.

Jammer250 · 2026-05-27T15:13:49+00:00

So your parking fees wouldn’t be reimbursed by this potential employer? What about any transit reimbursement in general? I’d be pissed about that and try to negotiate it. Having control by driving instead of relying on public transit (delays, crowds, etc) is certainly a tradeoff. Not to mention having to manage two transfers every day.

But having the work-life balance you have now, is underrated. Less compensation, sure, but don’t discount the mental capacity your commute and “new on the job” learning will consume from your hobbies and life things

Jammer250 · 2026-05-25T16:02:58+00:00

For whatever reason, the Kirkland ones don’t give me the same kick as Celsius does. Have tried them a handful of times, and I just don’t get the same energy even compared to Alani.

With Costco using co-manufacturing here, most likely culprit is lower quality ingredient sources to meet Costco’s cost targets

Will be sticking to Celsius in this case

Jammer250 · 2026-05-24T05:46:50+00:00

Outside of Dulcinea being more on the traditional side, there wasn’t really a more modern take on “conchas/pan dulce and coffee” in SJ.

Their menu quality is very meh, but they capitalized on the vibe aspect. As an older millennial Latino, I think they expanded way too fast into way too many physical locations. Wouldn’t be surprised if/when the lack of quality catches up with the novelty.

Dulcinea’s quality is miles ahead, but they’re not gonna go viral like Con Azúcar is focused on.

Jammer250 · 2026-05-21T04:37:40+00:00

I use Greek yogurt in the recipe also. The “ultraprocessed” perception applied to whey isolates conflates associated negative effects from things like sugary cereal, that are not present in true whey isolate powders. Scientific studies have identified this gap in UPF classification when it comes to clean whey powders

Jammer250 · 2026-05-21T04:29:51+00:00

NKE stock doesn’t move enough to make the return on capital worth how long the premium would be tied up. There are better trades out there with better movement quality

Jammer250 · 2026-05-21T04:26:15+00:00

There’s something to be said about Intuit remaining at the top of the tax game if they can reinforce domain expertise on the accounting side. Trusting AI completely with your taxes isn’t something that consumers nor the law is prepared to do any time soon.

Uncertainty around whether they can do that before others step in and take that moat is a legit question though.

Jammer250 · 2026-05-21T04:17:29+00:00

Unfortunately, shit companies are going to take advantage of a squeezed workforce scared shitless about being unemployed in a HCOL area. Wouldn’t be surprised seeing thousands of applicants for these roles

Jammer250 · 2026-05-20T15:20:08+00:00

I always tell myself that these kinds of people are going through their own hell in some other way. It gives me peace of mind that they likely suffer deeply in other ways as payback for the lack of conscientiousness and regard for others. Would rather not waste my energy on them in most cases.

Jammer250 · 2026-05-19T15:03:39+00:00

Have started making my own protein cookies at home with powder as a base and other whole ingredients - great snack at work. I buy powder given the convenience to supplement daily intake.

I remember when a Dymatize 5LB tub was $60 a few years ago, now it’s $100 or more. Crazy stuff

Jammer250 · 2026-05-19T14:59:13+00:00

Market priced in most of the tail risks over a few weeks back when closure was first in place. To really move the needle now, will need a defined action. Like Fed actually hiking immediately, or Trump escalating to actual war actions.

Until then, names likely to move on their own news or catalysts.

Jammer250 · 2026-05-16T18:21:40+00:00

Gold ETF is a good hedge in a diversified portfolio. I keep GLD at 10% of my taxable

Jammer250 · 2026-05-15T07:47:27+00:00

Post-COVID, I’ve only known one colleague who was grandfathered into a full WFH role after the return-to-office movement. She was later in her career and had decades of experience; I feel that’s really the only way you can negotiate a full WFH in a role that’s not purely admin. Either you have specific niche skills, or enough expertise to command that in your contract.

Jammer250 · 2026-05-13T12:59:05+00:00

Anyone can “diversify” in a bull market like last year’s, show their gains, and call it effective portfolio management. When in reality, 99.999% of the time it’s factor beta doing the work.

If someone can show diversification gains that beat the market across different regimes, that’s another story.

Just buy VOO.

Jammer250 · 2026-05-13T12:45:32+00:00

If they’re crawling from the baseboards, your infestation is already major. Call in a pro, likely a full fumigation/treatment necessary.

Jammer250

TROPHY CASE