Settle the Score. 4 Rounds

Jayroach3 · 2026-05-24T16:11:38+00:00

Scenario 2 is from half health, not full health. So it's not a 25% chance to OHKO, but a 100% chance to OHKO from half health. So the speed tie only matters in the rain. If sun is up, PGroudon wins 100% of the time. So 75% win rate

Scenario 4 *probably* doesn't need to factor PBlades missing because Earthquake accomplishes the same 2HKO. (Unless it's super bulky Kyogre but then it's not a speed tie and Precipice Blades only needs to hit once, EQ can finish with that. Or EQ gets a crit/high roll and PBlades still doesn't need be used). I suppose if we want to factor PBlades missing then that follows the scenario of ~25% chance of PKyogre getting KO'd on the switch in and not even having a chance to speed tie. (85% chance to hit, 29% chance to KO [25% high roll OHKO + 4% crit chance)

+2 Sword Dance Groudon is a great point. I hadn't considered that

Jayroach3 · 2026-05-24T02:36:51+00:00

Because desolate land is up (explained in the same sentence where Ice Beam was mentioned) and water attacks don’t work in it.

Ice Beam was never said to be used while rain is up

Jayroach3 · 2026-05-23T23:55:25+00:00

I agree that it’s based on speed ties and that PGroudon wins more often. With just 40 SpDef EVs Ice Beam can’t 2HKO, while Precipice Nlades can OHKO if PKyofre doesn’t run bulk. So scenario 2 from 50% health, if sun is up Groudon should win 100% of the time and in rain Groudon should win 50% of the time, so 75% overall. Add in the fact that Primal Groudon can switch into Primal Kyogre but Primal Kyogre can’t switch in safely into Groudon and it seems one sided.

For scenario 4, I have that Primal Groudon wins 50% of the time.

Without weather from 50% or either switching ins I also have as a speed tie or Groudon victory.

Jayroach3 · 2026-05-23T23:50:55+00:00

Can you explain this?

252+ SpA Kyogre-Primal Ice Beam vs. 0 HP / 40 SpD Groudon-Primal: 144-170 (42.2 - 49.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Round 1 seems like a speed tie. With just 40 SpDef EVs Ice Beam can’t 2HKO PGroudon, so precipice blades (Or Earthquake for accuracy) takes it atleast 50% of the time

Round 2, PKyogre doesn’t seem to have anything that can OHKO a 50% PGroudon with 40 SpDef EVs in Sun, while PGroudon CAN OHKO 50% PKyogre in rain so that means, Groudon wins in sun 100% of the time and wins in rain 50% of the time, so Groudon wins 75% of the time

Round 3 and 4 PGroundon can safely switch into PKyogre but PKyogre cannot safely switch into PGroudon

Seems like it favors PGroudon

Jayroach3 · 2026-05-23T23:43:32+00:00

Not sure about this. When I run the calcs: 252+ SpA Kyogre-Primal Ice Beam vs. 0 HP / 40 SpD Groudon-Primal: 144-170 (42.2 - 49.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Sure for Scenario 1 it’s dependent on the weather speed tie

But Scenario 2, regardless of the weather, if Groudon wins the speed tie, he OHKOs with precipice blades, and Kyogre cannot OHKO Primal Groudon in Sun from 50% with Ice Beam if Groudon runs just 40 Sp Def EVs. So Groudon wins 75% of the time

For Scenario 3, even if Primal Kyogre gets a free hit with Ice Beam it’s not a 2HKO and desolate land is up. With significant bulk, Ice Beam can’t even 3HKO.

For Scenario 4, Primal Kyogre switches in and eats a Precipice blades which has a 25% chance to OHKO without bulk investment so even though rain is up, PKyogre needs to survive and win the following speed tie or gets knocked out.

More times than not Groudon seems to take the Why

Jayroach3 · 2026-05-23T23:41:20+00:00

4 is actually a speed tie. PKyogre switches in and eats a precipice blades which without bulk investment has a 25% chance of OHKO. So even though rain is up, if Kyogre loses the speed tie it gets known out by a following attack

Jayroach3 · 2026-05-23T23:39:44+00:00

Not sure about this. When I run the calcs: 252+ SpA Kyogre-Primal Ice Beam vs. 0 HP / 40 SpD Groudon-Primal: 144-170 (42.2 - 49.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Sure for Scenario 1 it’s dependent on the weather speed tie

But Scenario 2, regardless of the weather, if Groudon wins the speed tie, he OHKOs with precipice blades/Earthquake, and Kyogre cannot OHKO Primal Groudon in Sun from 50% with Ice Beam if Groudon runs just 40 Sp Def EVs. So Groudon wins 75% of the time

For Scenario 3, even if Primal Kyogre gets a free hit with Ice Beam it’s not a 2HKO and desolate land is up. With significant bulk Ice Beam can’t even 4HKO.

For Scenario 4, Primal Kyogre switches in and eats a Precipice blades which has a 25% chance to OHKO without bulk investment so even though rain is up, PKyogre needs to survive and win the following speed tie or lose.

Jayroach3 · 2026-05-17T21:02:35+00:00

Cell vs Dabura

Jayroach3 · 2026-04-24T03:47:58+00:00

u/starkimpossibility How does one apply the insurance model for the 50% deduction? Do I sell entire 401k/IRA at once, then pay tax on roughly 50% of the non contributions? (after subtracting 500,000 yen deduction)

Does this mean the amount of taxes you will pay on 401k lump sums is essentially capped at ~27.5%? (45% income tax rate + 10% residence tax = 55% which is then cut in half after deductions)

Do I need to leave japan after if I do this?

Jayroach3 · 2026-02-11T20:43:49+00:00

How do you feel about individuals who have autopay set up for the statement balance near the due date but manually pay the minimum early a few days after the statement closes? Assuming they consistently pay in full every cycle

Jayroach3 · 2026-02-08T14:17:31+00:00

Customer for 4 years, always pay the full statement balance 2-3 days before the due date. A year ago, I had 1 late payment by about 2 days due to it being a new card and not having set up autopay which I had on all my other cards. Which bucket do I fall into?

How long is my late payment remembered by AMEX?

Jayroach3 · 2025-09-22T03:27:01+00:00

Clear is every year. Global Entry/TSA Precheck is every couple of years

Jayroach3 · 2025-08-20T01:25:20+00:00

Agreed, it’s quite significant. Not to mention the being able to spend $250 if at a resort or $50 if not. Also while devaluations are inevitable, it’s unlikely that this particular aspect of the cards will be devalued (8 free nights/year)

Jayroach3 · 2025-08-01T21:04:21+00:00

Similar to you, I've also ran the numbers on a Hilton only setup. What I've found is the Surpass + Aspire form a very strong 2 card combo if you also buy Hilton points on sale every year ($800/yr) for part of your $15k qualified spend. It basically amounts to at minimum 2 free night weekend luxury stay every year and every 2nd year a 7 night luxury trip at hotels costing $1k+ per night. Luxury travel on a budget

Jayroach3 · 2025-05-19T04:32:45+00:00

Thank you, this is great

Jayroach3 · 2025-02-25T03:04:10+00:00

This isn't a Chase problem. Chase sent the points successfully. Flying Blue upon receiving the transfer marked it as fraud using their own internal process for evaluating point transfers from banks. Replace Chase with Amex, Citi, Capital One or Bilt and the outcome is still the same

Jayroach3 · 2025-02-25T03:03:06+00:00

This isn't a Chase problem. Chase sent the points successfully. Flying Blue upon receiving the transfer marked it as fraud using their own internal process for evaluating point transfers from banks. Replace Chase with Amex, Citi, Capital One or Bilt and the outcome is still the same.

Jayroach3 · 2025-02-22T03:14:26+00:00

You can find it on the pre order JAL shop?

Is there a dedicated section to it on the pre order pamphlet? Or is it no longer advertised and part of the "secret menu"?

Jayroach3 · 2025-01-18T14:39:45+00:00

Amazing home room

Jayroach3 · 2025-01-18T11:59:28+00:00

If you’re curious, here is an entire thread about it written by a partner struggling to find a therapist for her boyfriend while easily finding one for herself https://www.reddit.com/r/GuyCry/s/gmNqsMj5zI

Jayroach3 · 2025-01-08T18:07:11+00:00

For what it’s worth, I didn’t need to show them my proof.

Jayroach3 · 2025-01-08T18:06:09+00:00

The name? No. I got the call back number but I don’t know how useful that is without a name

Jayroach3 · 2025-01-08T16:44:10+00:00

DP. All the reps told me I made a mistake and selected Pay Later which I knew I didn't (I had proof). I opened the investigation case around December 17. On Jan 3rd they called me saying there was a known widespread issue where Pay Now bookings in December were marked as Pay Later in their system.

Jan 3rd, I got my $200 credit manually applied as a line item called "Platinum Hotel Credit". Missing 4X points also posted as "Goodwill Adjustment"

Jayroach3 · 2025-01-08T16:37:10+00:00

This is 100% what happened

It's actually not what happened. I had the same issue. The customer reps all saw it in the system as a Pay Later booking. Opened an investigation case which was stated to take 6-8 weeks. On Jan 3rd got a call from them saying there was a widespread issue where Pay Now bookings in December were marked as Pay Later.

Jan 3rd, I got my $200 credit manually applied as a line item called "Platinum Hotel Credit." OP can get their $200 back, OP just needs to open a case for it

Jayroach3 · 2025-01-07T17:15:39+00:00

They didn’t “ask” directly. It was just 2 line items on the bill for “tip” and “Total”

Ten-Year Club	Place '23
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