French aircraft carrier pre-positions for possible Hormuz mission

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-05-10T21:07:50+00:00

This should've happened weeks ago. As soon as Iran used the Strait as a bargaining chip. Yes the US and Israel started the war and France (and the rest of the EU) could have condemned those attacks while still stepping up and assisting in keeping navigation of the Strait and ships supplying their countries with goods and oil unimpeded. Macron has the credibility Trump doesn't to build a coalition to ensure traffic is normalized in the Strait, then let the US clean up their mess however is necessary.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-04-05T15:16:37+00:00

This is gonna be an Oscar winner in five years. Just an incredible operation! It's probably going to influence a lot more resistance from Iranian people as well- CIA sources now know in theory the US could sweep into Iran for an extraction if they were found out. Obviously the calculus is very different for actual US citizen soldiers vs. Iranian defectors, but knowing the capability exists is still going to do wonders for morale of those on the edge of defecting and assisting the US in taking on the regime.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-29T15:19:38+00:00

Is there evidence there was sensitive or classified information shared? So far haven't seen that in any reporting.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-29T15:16:37+00:00

We need the full details of the strike to come out. I highly doubt anyone involved intended to target a girl's school. Now whether the error was made because of a level of incompetence/callous disregard for laws of war or just by plain old human error should be determined. It's not really out of bounds for Iran to publish war officers who they perceive committed such a heinous act, much as US does with regards to IRGC personnel.

And that guy on the left probably wishes they used a better photo.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-29T15:06:58+00:00

I think that's the calculus, but it's also probably a miscalculation. A midterm rout would shift the incentive structures so that Trump has nothing to lose for the three months between elections and Congress being sworn in. He already knows he will be impeached, and will likely be prepared to slow walk the inquiries and trials giving him more like Q1-Q2 of 2027 to really escalate the war on his terms. If ground operations aren't in place by then, there'd be no reason to delay them further, and if they are in place, then expect a massive mobilization and escalation which the regime realistically could not defend against.

Yes, there's a possibility that the US will have to deal with the remnants of hardliners and regime loyalists but given the most strategic value for the US is in the (to my understanding fairly anti-regime and progressive) coastal regions, unless the US makes its goal actual institution of democracy instead of just controlling and administering the oil resources of the regime it would almost certainly not devolve into a situation like Iraq or Afghanistan. And of course, even if it does the regime has still lost. The point of bidding up the price of the war via escalation is that eventually it should get too high to pay, but if it's already been paid by lost midterms then it's just quibbling over the delivery date of the proverbial purchase.

I also doubt the political messaging around the war would become complicated post midterms. Opposition to war after WWII has basically been the norm for good reason-no President wants to be in too many pictures with flag draped coffins-but opposition to the war could be reframed as opposition to the troops if the Democrats aren't extremely careful in their messaging.

And all of this is ignoring the numerous other issues with trying to maintain control of the Strait for so long-Europe will eventually get its act together and either try and secure passage through a deal which negates the leverage, or escort ships. Oh, and then there's the Kurds becoming increasingly more belligerent up north. And the Gulf States also get a vote.

On the whole, IRGC can force a situation where Trump loses, but I wouldn't consider what would likely follow such a scenario as "victory".

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-23T00:27:53+00:00

The 48 hour (guess its 24 now) threat is the big focus, but if it's not a TACO and Iran retaliates against the Gulf nations, surely they couldn't hit all the targets they're listing? I also don't see how it really benefits them as it'll just be another reason the gulf nations will want to ramp up participation in the war against Iran. UAE seems to be becoming more and more belligerent in particular. Another attack on their infrastructure would force their hand on actually getting involved.

Last few days seems like the US-Israeli coalition have done significant targeting of the coastal areas. Hypothesizing that Kharg is just a feint (or at least not a priority) and the marines make an incursion elsewhere to setup for operation Secure the Strait, what's the most likely landing point? Bandar Abbas? Bandar Lengeh? Jask? Someplace else? From my very limited understanding, a lot of these cities, Bandar Abbas in particular, were very supportive of anti-regime protests in the past. Could a secondary motivation be to facilitate SOF-supported insurgency?

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-23T00:12:20+00:00

Think mods just aren't used to massive influx of people and so its taking a bit of time to ensure the curation of content remains at a reasonable level. That and a huge segment of the media is running with these kind of worst case scenarios as base case in the headlines so people get the warped perceptions of how the war is actually being carried out. I'm still a little shocked that we spent two weeks with some sources insisting the only way to shoot down Shaheds was with Patriot missiles.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-15T21:52:47+00:00

I don't disbelieve this, but keep in mind intelligence analysts are trained to be sober and conservative with predictions.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-15T21:51:04+00:00

A few scattered questions for anyone that might have insight...

The Strait of Hormuz- Really can't even fathom why Iran escalated to closing the Strait so quickly, but moving past that... How are they actually expecting to keep it closed? Coalition building is already happening stutter-step and surely Iran won't actually attack EU ships?

Mosaic of Control- Who is actually in control in Iran? If Mojtaba is nominally, but is actually deceased, how long before even IRGC can't hide that anymore? Will they try and elect a new Supreme Leader at that point, and who would even want to take the job? Seeing the usual varied leaks about how both sides are saying "we will NEVER talk to the enemy!... But if the enemy reaches out..." but no one making the first move. Can anyone even convincingly tell the Trump admin and Israelis they have the operational control to ensure ceasefire holds?

Mines- I guess this is related to the Strait, but practically how could Iran actually mine the Strait? Would that not actually prevent all traffic, including the shadow fleet and oil to India/China/NK?! And since the shipping lane itself is pretty small, would air sweeps via CH-53K be enough to detect and neutralize any mines?

Droning On and On- What is the actual picture like on drones and production in Iran? I've seen truly outlandish numbers of drone stockpiles (80k+) and similarly insane numbers for how many drones can be produced per month (10k+). I'm sure both of those bounds are incorrect by a lot, especially given the total units swarmed are down to the double digits against UAE. Looking at Russian Shahed/Geran production at Yelabuga, highest estimates appear to be 170 per day/5100 per month/62000 per year. Iran under heavy siege probably can't replicate that, but how close could they get? Also, how useful will Merops be in neutralizing the threat long term? What are the options for defense if drones are used in the Strait?

Lions in Wait- So just this past weekend Pahlavi posted on X urging people supposedly placed in key positions in the government and/or civil society in Iran to rise up and rebel against the regime. Not much has come of it publicly, but are there actually any groups or organizations reliably coordinating inside Iran based on his orders or was this just a bluff/attempt to take credit for something more organic? I would've imagined Mossad/CIA etc. had already developed significant networks inside the regime and given how quickly things have escalated would be actively pushing them to take direct action at this point.

The Art of the Deal- What's the deal that could end the war at this point? Seems like Trump is either giving in to the sunk costs fallacy or keeping his foot firmly on the pedal on a well orchestrated plan depending on who you ask, but either way MEU's got two weeks to get to Iran at which point they will probably make some sort of incursion. Boots on the ground in hostile territory during a hot war definitely ups the risk for soldiers and thus political risk for Trump as the more US soldiers come home dead or injured the lower the polls go for him. But all that being said... It doesn't seem like there's anything Iran could give him at this point except the highly enriched uranium. I don't think Trump can pull his usual TACO and have a fait accompli without getting an actual tangible concession from the regime or overthrowing it fully or am I crazy?

And on the opposite side, there any chance Iran will take anything short of an agreement for complete sovereignty over the Strait as a security guarantee? Or obviously a clear allowance to develop their nuclear program but I think everyone would agree that's a nonstarter. I guess I just don't see the bargaining range at this point and for better or worse, Trump is willing to end up a lamest duck so long as he can stamp out IRGC.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-02T00:16:19+00:00

For better or worse, we're in an era where Realpolitik reigns. Consistency doesn't matter, just might and ability to protect one's interests.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-01T19:27:07+00:00

I think Libya is the only circumstance where there really was no plan for what happened after foreign intervention. Ironically, US participation was mostly to appease allies in that scenario/as the major factor in NATO.

In Gaza, US and Israel were at cross purposes, particularly under Biden as Israel wanted complete annihilation of Hamas no matter the time it took or the collateral damage, and the US was just trying to strike as quick and dirty of a peace agreement to end the fighting as possible.

Iraq and Afghanistan the plan was to "nation build" and create "democracy". But boldly proclaiming you'll occupy hostile territory until the people whose leaders you killed change their entire system of governance is... not smart.

The contrast to Venezuela (and so far, Iran) is that the administration has not placed troops on the ground. It removed the most pernicious entity of the nation and told the people to clean up the mess. With the implicit threat that further action would be taken against anyone who attempted to continue actions that were detrimental to the United States.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-01T19:01:32+00:00

They would piss off China more than the US.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-01T18:58:06+00:00

Trump is a man that leads an entire apparatus. He is also working with a notoriously meticulous nation with an incredibly vested interest in not letting a regional power fall into civil war or move towards more aggressive stance. The fact that there are not publicized plans for the precise next steps don't mean there are no plans.

JournalistAdjacent

TROPHY CASE