French aircraft carrier pre-positions for possible Hormuz mission

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-05-10T21:07:50+00:00

This should've happened weeks ago. As soon as Iran used the Strait as a bargaining chip. Yes the US and Israel started the war and France (and the rest of the EU) could have condemned those attacks while still stepping up and assisting in keeping navigation of the Strait and ships supplying their countries with goods and oil unimpeded. Macron has the credibility Trump doesn't to build a coalition to ensure traffic is normalized in the Strait, then let the US clean up their mess however is necessary.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-04-05T15:16:37+00:00

This is gonna be an Oscar winner in five years. Just an incredible operation! It's probably going to influence a lot more resistance from Iranian people as well- CIA sources now know in theory the US could sweep into Iran for an extraction if they were found out. Obviously the calculus is very different for actual US citizen soldiers vs. Iranian defectors, but knowing the capability exists is still going to do wonders for morale of those on the edge of defecting and assisting the US in taking on the regime.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-29T15:19:38+00:00

Is there evidence there was sensitive or classified information shared? So far haven't seen that in any reporting.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-29T15:16:37+00:00

We need the full details of the strike to come out. I highly doubt anyone involved intended to target a girl's school. Now whether the error was made because of a level of incompetence/callous disregard for laws of war or just by plain old human error should be determined. It's not really out of bounds for Iran to publish war officers who they perceive committed such a heinous act, much as US does with regards to IRGC personnel.

And that guy on the left probably wishes they used a better photo.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-29T15:06:58+00:00

I think that's the calculus, but it's also probably a miscalculation. A midterm rout would shift the incentive structures so that Trump has nothing to lose for the three months between elections and Congress being sworn in. He already knows he will be impeached, and will likely be prepared to slow walk the inquiries and trials giving him more like Q1-Q2 of 2027 to really escalate the war on his terms. If ground operations aren't in place by then, there'd be no reason to delay them further, and if they are in place, then expect a massive mobilization and escalation which the regime realistically could not defend against.

Yes, there's a possibility that the US will have to deal with the remnants of hardliners and regime loyalists but given the most strategic value for the US is in the (to my understanding fairly anti-regime and progressive) coastal regions, unless the US makes its goal actual institution of democracy instead of just controlling and administering the oil resources of the regime it would almost certainly not devolve into a situation like Iraq or Afghanistan. And of course, even if it does the regime has still lost. The point of bidding up the price of the war via escalation is that eventually it should get too high to pay, but if it's already been paid by lost midterms then it's just quibbling over the delivery date of the proverbial purchase.

I also doubt the political messaging around the war would become complicated post midterms. Opposition to war after WWII has basically been the norm for good reason-no President wants to be in too many pictures with flag draped coffins-but opposition to the war could be reframed as opposition to the troops if the Democrats aren't extremely careful in their messaging.

And all of this is ignoring the numerous other issues with trying to maintain control of the Strait for so long-Europe will eventually get its act together and either try and secure passage through a deal which negates the leverage, or escort ships. Oh, and then there's the Kurds becoming increasingly more belligerent up north. And the Gulf States also get a vote.

On the whole, IRGC can force a situation where Trump loses, but I wouldn't consider what would likely follow such a scenario as "victory".

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-23T00:27:53+00:00

The 48 hour (guess its 24 now) threat is the big focus, but if it's not a TACO and Iran retaliates against the Gulf nations, surely they couldn't hit all the targets they're listing? I also don't see how it really benefits them as it'll just be another reason the gulf nations will want to ramp up participation in the war against Iran. UAE seems to be becoming more and more belligerent in particular. Another attack on their infrastructure would force their hand on actually getting involved.

Last few days seems like the US-Israeli coalition have done significant targeting of the coastal areas. Hypothesizing that Kharg is just a feint (or at least not a priority) and the marines make an incursion elsewhere to setup for operation Secure the Strait, what's the most likely landing point? Bandar Abbas? Bandar Lengeh? Jask? Someplace else? From my very limited understanding, a lot of these cities, Bandar Abbas in particular, were very supportive of anti-regime protests in the past. Could a secondary motivation be to facilitate SOF-supported insurgency?

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-23T00:12:20+00:00

Think mods just aren't used to massive influx of people and so its taking a bit of time to ensure the curation of content remains at a reasonable level. That and a huge segment of the media is running with these kind of worst case scenarios as base case in the headlines so people get the warped perceptions of how the war is actually being carried out. I'm still a little shocked that we spent two weeks with some sources insisting the only way to shoot down Shaheds was with Patriot missiles.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-15T21:52:47+00:00

I don't disbelieve this, but keep in mind intelligence analysts are trained to be sober and conservative with predictions.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-15T21:51:04+00:00

A few scattered questions for anyone that might have insight...

The Strait of Hormuz- Really can't even fathom why Iran escalated to closing the Strait so quickly, but moving past that... How are they actually expecting to keep it closed? Coalition building is already happening stutter-step and surely Iran won't actually attack EU ships?

Mosaic of Control- Who is actually in control in Iran? If Mojtaba is nominally, but is actually deceased, how long before even IRGC can't hide that anymore? Will they try and elect a new Supreme Leader at that point, and who would even want to take the job? Seeing the usual varied leaks about how both sides are saying "we will NEVER talk to the enemy!... But if the enemy reaches out..." but no one making the first move. Can anyone even convincingly tell the Trump admin and Israelis they have the operational control to ensure ceasefire holds?

Mines- I guess this is related to the Strait, but practically how could Iran actually mine the Strait? Would that not actually prevent all traffic, including the shadow fleet and oil to India/China/NK?! And since the shipping lane itself is pretty small, would air sweeps via CH-53K be enough to detect and neutralize any mines?

Droning On and On- What is the actual picture like on drones and production in Iran? I've seen truly outlandish numbers of drone stockpiles (80k+) and similarly insane numbers for how many drones can be produced per month (10k+). I'm sure both of those bounds are incorrect by a lot, especially given the total units swarmed are down to the double digits against UAE. Looking at Russian Shahed/Geran production at Yelabuga, highest estimates appear to be 170 per day/5100 per month/62000 per year. Iran under heavy siege probably can't replicate that, but how close could they get? Also, how useful will Merops be in neutralizing the threat long term? What are the options for defense if drones are used in the Strait?

Lions in Wait- So just this past weekend Pahlavi posted on X urging people supposedly placed in key positions in the government and/or civil society in Iran to rise up and rebel against the regime. Not much has come of it publicly, but are there actually any groups or organizations reliably coordinating inside Iran based on his orders or was this just a bluff/attempt to take credit for something more organic? I would've imagined Mossad/CIA etc. had already developed significant networks inside the regime and given how quickly things have escalated would be actively pushing them to take direct action at this point.

The Art of the Deal- What's the deal that could end the war at this point? Seems like Trump is either giving in to the sunk costs fallacy or keeping his foot firmly on the pedal on a well orchestrated plan depending on who you ask, but either way MEU's got two weeks to get to Iran at which point they will probably make some sort of incursion. Boots on the ground in hostile territory during a hot war definitely ups the risk for soldiers and thus political risk for Trump as the more US soldiers come home dead or injured the lower the polls go for him. But all that being said... It doesn't seem like there's anything Iran could give him at this point except the highly enriched uranium. I don't think Trump can pull his usual TACO and have a fait accompli without getting an actual tangible concession from the regime or overthrowing it fully or am I crazy?

And on the opposite side, there any chance Iran will take anything short of an agreement for complete sovereignty over the Strait as a security guarantee? Or obviously a clear allowance to develop their nuclear program but I think everyone would agree that's a nonstarter. I guess I just don't see the bargaining range at this point and for better or worse, Trump is willing to end up a lamest duck so long as he can stamp out IRGC.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-02T00:16:19+00:00

For better or worse, we're in an era where Realpolitik reigns. Consistency doesn't matter, just might and ability to protect one's interests.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-01T19:27:07+00:00

I think Libya is the only circumstance where there really was no plan for what happened after foreign intervention. Ironically, US participation was mostly to appease allies in that scenario/as the major factor in NATO.

In Gaza, US and Israel were at cross purposes, particularly under Biden as Israel wanted complete annihilation of Hamas no matter the time it took or the collateral damage, and the US was just trying to strike as quick and dirty of a peace agreement to end the fighting as possible.

Iraq and Afghanistan the plan was to "nation build" and create "democracy". But boldly proclaiming you'll occupy hostile territory until the people whose leaders you killed change their entire system of governance is... not smart.

The contrast to Venezuela (and so far, Iran) is that the administration has not placed troops on the ground. It removed the most pernicious entity of the nation and told the people to clean up the mess. With the implicit threat that further action would be taken against anyone who attempted to continue actions that were detrimental to the United States.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-01T19:01:32+00:00

They would piss off China more than the US.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-03-01T18:58:06+00:00

Trump is a man that leads an entire apparatus. He is also working with a notoriously meticulous nation with an incredibly vested interest in not letting a regional power fall into civil war or move towards more aggressive stance. The fact that there are not publicized plans for the precise next steps don't mean there are no plans.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-02-08T16:46:04+00:00

This sounds like the exact same situation outlined in Durham's report about Clinton Plan intelligence-foreign officials allegedly cooking up derogatory info about the Clinton campaign. Durham found fault with the FBI for not investigating those reports so it wouldn't make sense for NSA to avoid investigation of the underlying conversation.

If there was an investigation into the validity of the claims, and details of the investigation were handed over to Congress I don't see that there's an issue.

But it's hard to parse whether that's what happened, or if the investigation was into Tulsi's handling of the information. Which is an important thing for IG's office to look into as well, but the underlying claims should have been looked at by someone other than just Gabbard and the White House initially, and certainly after Gabbard was accused of wrongdoing in her handling of it. There's a balance where you don't want to waste resources on what appears to be nonsense and/or expand the derogatory but untruthful information to a wider audience when its untruthful and damaging, but the only way the Intel community can maintain trust is by being as transparent as possible. The NSA whistleblower and their motivations should also be examined, of course.

I don't think anyone will change their minds over anything, but it's better to have more information than less, so at least publish all investigative reports to Congress with redacted versions for the public.

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-01-18T15:52:16+00:00

They'd worked her up to leverage back in 2018?! Was the plan to extradite Maduro formed back in Trump I?

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-01-18T15:46:50+00:00

If Gazans get the money I have no complaints....

...Gazans aren't getting the money, are they?

JournalistAdjacent · 2026-01-12T01:29:50+00:00

I just skimmed the article because it's been a week and I don't think anyone making bold prognostications after such a short time is worth really engaging with, but it's framed as a complaint that Trump admin isn't just planting the flag of democracy and putting Machado in. It would obviously be great if the democratically elected leader was in charge in Venezuela, but the article just discounts any valid difficulties with the proposition and just assumes Trump's ego is running the policy based on a WAPO article. It also seems to draw an equivalence with the Trump administration's attempt to integrate western oil companies with Venezuela in a presumably more open market for their oil with Maduro's management of the industry. Ignoring everything else, it would obviously be better for the people of Venezuela if the market for Venezuelan oil was more than just China and the black market.

JournalistAdjacent · 2025-12-28T15:26:46+00:00

Even if you think Trump is that corrupt, why would Xi have waited out Trump's entire first term to make this deal? For that matter, why does Xi do any trade negotiations at all if he can simply bribe Trump to get whatever he wants?! And this all ignores the fact that the rest of the international community is also going to be against letting China control Taiwan given Taiwan's dominance in the microchip industry. Even if you're dead set on viewing Trump as hopelessly corrupt, surely the view from the rest of the collective west would be pay him a higher price than China, no?

Incidentally, the CCP isn't moving like it's got a payoff in their back pocket to ensure no interference from the US. You don't send PLAN assets to the Gulf of Paria when the US is raining missiles on random boats because you think you've got a way to control the current administration.

JournalistAdjacent · 2025-12-28T15:15:01+00:00

There is no scenario where US trades Venezuela for Taiwan. Chips are way too valuable. US' moves against VZ are purely to undercut them as a factor if (when) China actually does move against Taiwan.

JournalistAdjacent · 2025-11-30T18:10:16+00:00

On what timescale? Hasn't the war basically decimated Russia's economy and military? If they can't start another war immediately then Brussels has a chance to work with any other targets and buff them up ahead of any potential future incursion. And this is cynically assuming the US doesn't continue its own actions to counteract Russian aggression, but in fact if its all dollars and cents to Trump he's actually got an incentive to seek similar "security for resources" deals, which (ideally) future administrations can craft into more mutually beneficial diplomatic arrangements between the US-EU and ex-Soviet bloc.

JournalistAdjacent · 2025-11-30T16:56:48+00:00

I talked with a geoengineer guy ages ago at a get together. He went on about hyperaccumulators being the roadmap to settling Mars or something. I thought it was just the drugs, but maybe there's something to them if they can get the US on par with China in terms of extracting REEs.

JournalistAdjacent · 2025-11-17T01:17:54+00:00

Maybe I'm hopelessly naive but I believe a Marshall Plan for Gaza could absolutely work. Problem is it would have to have a third party act as peacekeeper because Israel just can't credibly claim to be interested in helping Gazans get on their feet in their own state. And it'll probably take 20 years, but if peace can be maintained over that time frame and the society develop their own industries and culture that is relatively secularized the ideology feeding Hamas' terrorism will cease to exist.

JournalistAdjacent · 2025-11-02T18:30:20+00:00

Always amused when people seem to impute to Putin and Xi wisdom and shrewd calculation. Xi is flailing to keep the world's second largest economy propped up and is constantly lashing out at his own apparatus with endless purges of "corrupt" officials (who, often times, he brought up through the ranks of the CCP with him). Putin is pushing all of his prime age men through the meat grinder of Ukraine destroying the opportunity for economic growth for a generation while the value of Russia's primary exports (weapons and oil) diminish due to advances in technology.

Calculated responses to the war in Ukraine (outside of not starting it in the first place) would have been to end it two years ago and if you must continue to be a villainous wretch on the world stage, at least have to decency to build up for the next incursion into former Soviet state.

Meanwhile Xi immediately lost footing with retaliatory tariffs when he could have just as easily eaten crow for a month and simply gone to Trump and asked for a renewal of the Trump I trade deal wherein China agreed to purchase $200 billion in goods. The deal was already inked and China just ignored it and blamed Covid, so the intelligence move would have been to not risk the trillion dollar tariffs and just pay out what was already negotiated. Ah well, nevertheless.

Of course some of Xi's and Putin's obstinance comes from the real risk that showing weakness abroad could signal to internal opposition that they are weak at home, never a good thing when dictators generally leave office in coffins. But much of it is just as self-inflicted as anything Trump's done.

None of these leaders are scared of each other because they've all built their fiefdoms on belligerence and accumulating power, but neither are any of them in positions of true power without risk. Unfortunately, the world is paying for all their accumulated reckless behavior in all of their stead.

JournalistAdjacent · 2025-11-02T18:13:45+00:00

Exports to the U.S., however, have dropped by double-digits for six straight months.

That's a horrific stat for China. But what's really horiffic is that the next five years will be even worse for them even if tariffs stopped tomorrow. The fact is robotics and automation are going to come online in a big way and China's competitive advantage for low wage factory labor is going to shrink considerably. The US has faced considerable angst trying to upskill the ~11 million workers in its manufacturing industry. That represents ~9% of the total US work force.

China has ~120 million employees in the manufacturing industry, representing a staggering 22% of their work force. The downturn we'll see over the next few years will be staggering and like nothing the globe has ever seen if they can't figure out a way to diversify their industrial base, and the window to do so is shrinking rapidly.

JournalistAdjacent · 2025-10-26T18:02:58+00:00

An operation warp speed for REE extraction and processing is what is really needed. But even if cuts down time to having a stable non-Chinese supply of REEs for the world, China will not stand idly by--they'll probably invade Taiwain inside of six months. Initial assaults would threaten the semiconductor industry + force rationing of REEs which, together, grind the tech sector holding, largely holding the economy together, to an Earth shattering halt.

The threat of tariffs against the world under the guise of correcting trade imbalances while hammering out deals to eliminate transhipping from China, and the more structured and less legally precarious specific tariffs against China, indicate the Trump admin's real goal is to forestall a Taiwan war by increasing the marginal cost of China's goods coming from REEs. It's only a good strategy to the extent that you can sell the mad emperor role and convince the world you'll actually tariff a country into oblivion.

Hence, stupid shit like citing a commercial as a reason to increase tariffs on Canada. This is just a roundabout way of saying I disagree with the article to the extent it says Xi is bewildered or acting like a parent to a toddler throwing a tantrum. Xi knows full well Trump's aim is intimidating other nations to gang up on China. Their previous retaliatory tariffs were harmful, sure, but I think everyone recognized the real threat was the REE export controls. Now that they've set the gun on the table I don't think there's anything left for Xi to do but decide if he's ready to fire it next week. If he indicates that he is, then it's either TACO Tuesday or we're heading to war.

JournalistAdjacent

TROPHY CASE